近期美联储官员密集发声，使市场重新校准政策预期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，只要经济数据配 合，短期降息不会偏离通胀目标；旧金山联储主席戴利强调劳动力市场存在"非线性恶化"的风险，有必 要及早采取行动；理事沃勒也认为应在12月降息，并倾向按"逐会评估"的方式推进后续政策。在连续的 温和基调推动下，市场迅速消化预期。CMEFedWatch 显示，在下次会议降息 25 个基点的概率已升至约 80%，高于上周水平。这使美元上周积累的强势有所减弱，也为黄金提供了更持久的支撑。 周二欧洲早盘，市场整体延续前一交易日的分化态势：美元在多项美国核心数据公布前维持窄幅震荡， 而黄金在温和的美联储政策信号及复杂的地缘局势推动下继续守在高位区间。随着9月零售销售、PPI、 11月消费者信心指数与每周就业数据即将公布，交易者的注意力不仅集中在数据本身，也开始讨论—— 在重要就业数据延迟发布的情况下，美联储12月会议是否可能调整时间表。 欧洲时段，美元指数稳定在 100 上方波动，整体保持相对克制的节奏。尽管市场风险偏好较高、且对12 月降息的预期持续升温，但投资者在关键数据出炉前并未进一步压低美元，更多选择评估后续信号。主 要货币方 ...

Group 1: China Trade Data - In October, China's trade surplus was $90.07 billion, lower than the previous value of $90.45 billion and below the market expectation of $95.6 billion [1] - Exports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 3.0%, while imports grew by 1.0%, significantly down from September's 7.4% and below the expected 3.2% [1] - The simultaneous slowdown in export and import growth, along with a narrowing trade surplus, puts pressure on the New Zealand dollar, as China is a key trading partner for New Zealand [1] Group 2: New Zealand Economic Indicators - New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q3, the highest level since 2016, indicating a weakening job market [1] - The softening employment market has increased expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to potentially cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy meeting to support economic growth [1] - The interest rate cut expectations add further pressure on the New Zealand dollar, making it difficult for the currency to break through key resistance levels [1] Group 3: US Labor Market and Interest Rate Expectations - In the US, Challenger job cuts data for October showed over 150,000 layoffs, marking the largest decline for that month in nearly 20 years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - This has led some investors to increase bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in the next meeting rising to 70% from 62% the previous day [2] - While this creates short-term pressure on the US dollar, it remains a key global safe-haven currency, which will indirectly affect the performance of the New Zealand dollar [2] Group 4: Market Reactions - The NZD/USD pair is under pressure around 0.5620, with market participants noting the narrowing trade surplus from China and the weak employment market in New Zealand [3] - Investors are also focused on the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index release [3]

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has faced downward pressure, recently trading around 0.5870 against the US dollar, influenced by a slight rebound in the dollar and declining inflation data from China [1][3] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, which was below market expectations, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures due to weak domestic demand and oversupply of industrial goods [3][6] - The weak CPI in China may indirectly affect New Zealand's exports, as China is a major trading partner, leading to increased volatility in the NZD/USD exchange rate [3][6] Group 2 - The US CPI for August showed the largest year-on-year increase in seven months, although it was still below general market expectations, raising concerns about future US monetary policy [3][4] - Market participants are focusing on key upcoming economic indicators, including China's CPI and economic performance, as well as the US consumer confidence index, which may influence short-term currency fluctuations [6] - Analysts emphasize the importance of understanding trends and risks rather than relying solely on specific data points for investment decisions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [4][6]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1275.100, down by 15.140 or 1.17% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1176.530, down by 12.190 or 1.03% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3350.500, up by 8.200 or 0.25% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.530, down by 0.260 or 0.71% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.141, unchanged [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.317, down by 0.28% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 150.360, down by 0.27% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.643, up by 0.01% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.816, up by 0.44% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 114753.620, down by 1010.460 or 0.87% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 104.870, down by 1.220 or 1.15% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3614.980, down by 83.410 or 2.26% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.953, down by 0.070 or 2.31% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.953, up by 0.002 or 0.05% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.981, up by 0.021 or 0.53% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.395, up by 0.035 or 0.80% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.930, up by 0.045 or 0.92% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.633, up by 0.062 or 1.36% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.721, up by 0.029 or 1.08% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.384, up by 0.036 or 1.08% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.573, up by 0.038 or 1.07% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.555, down by 0.005 or 0.32% [7]

Key Points - The current spot prices for platinum and palladium show slight increases, with platinum at 1291.240 (+0.08%) and palladium at 1195.170 (+0.54%) [2] - Gold prices have decreased slightly, with COMEX gold at 3338.200 (-0.12%), while silver prices also fell to 36.620 (-0.46%) [2] - In the foreign exchange market, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.142 (+0.04%), while the British pound has seen a minor decline at 1.320 (-0.01%) [4] - The US Treasury bond yields have shown a slight increase across various maturities, with the 2-year yield at 3.955 (+0.10%) and the 10-year yield at 4.378 (+0.41%) [7][8] - The cryptocurrency market reflects a decline in major currencies, with Bitcoin at 115189.390 (-0.50%) and Ethereum at 3685.890 (-0.34%) [5]

Group 1 - The data indicates a significant presence of long positions in various currency pairs, with notable percentages such as 74.65% long in USD/CAD and 71.35% long in GBP/USD [2][3] - The short positions are relatively lower, with the highest being 56.68% short in EUR/AUD, indicating a potential bearish sentiment in that pair [3][4] - The overall sentiment across multiple currency pairs shows a trend towards long positions, with pairs like EUR/USD showing 47.6% long and 52.4% short, suggesting a balanced outlook [3][4] Group 2 - The data reflects a mixed sentiment in the forex market, with some pairs like AUD/JPY showing a long position of 67.87% and a short position of 32.13% [4] - The analysis of the currency pairs indicates a strong preference for long positions in major currencies, which may influence trading strategies [2][3] - The overall market dynamics suggest that traders are leaning towards bullish strategies in several key currency pairs, as evidenced by the high percentages of long positions [2][3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1378.540, down by 10.900 or 0.78% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1251.870, up by 0.110 or 0.01% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3356.600, up by 31.300 or 0.94% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 37.755, down by 0.630 or 1.64% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.147, down by 0.67% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.329, down by 0.45% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 149.083, up by 0.42% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.646, down by 0.79% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.812, up by 0.77% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 117659.180, down by 291.570 or 0.25% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 108.110, down by 0.410 or 0.38% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3766.170, down by 27.630 or 0.73% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.085, down by 0.043 or 1.37% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.918, up by 0.043 or 1.11% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.957, up by 0.051 or 1.31% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.369, up by 0.034 or 0.78% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.903, up by 0.035 or 0.72% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.611, down by 0.021 or 0.45% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.711, up by 0.021 or 0.78% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.368, up by 0.020 or 0.60% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.562, up by 0.036 or 1.02% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.566, up by 0.001 or 0.06% [7]

Group 1 - Spot platinum price is at 1393.740, increasing by 4.300 or 0.31% [2] - Spot palladium price is at 1261.590, increasing by 9.830 or 0.79% [2] - Gold price (COMEX) is at 3382.600, increasing by 57.300 or 1.72% [2] - Silver price (COMEX) is at 38.040, decreasing by 0.345 or 0.90% [2] Group 2 - Euro to USD exchange rate is at 1.154, decreasing by 0.03% [3] - GBP to USD exchange rate is at 1.336, increasing by 0.11% [3] - USD to JPY exchange rate is at 148.149, decreasing by 0.21% [3] - AUD to USD exchange rate is at 0.649, decreasing by 0.29% [3] - USD to CHF exchange rate is at 0.806, increasing by 0.04% [3] Group 3 - NZD to USD exchange rate is at 0.595, decreasing by 0.08% [4] - GBP to JPY exchange rate is at 198.000, decreasing by 0.09% [4] - Bitcoin price is at 117988.330, increasing by 37.580 or 0.03% [4] - Litecoin price is at 108.020, decreasing by 0.500 or 0.46% [4] - Ethereum price is at 3770.810, decreasing by 22.990 or 0.61% [4] - Ripple price is at 3.088, decreasing by 0.040 or 1.29% [4] Group 4 - US 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.865 [6] - US 5-year Treasury yield is at 3.896, decreasing by 0.010 or 0.26% [7] - US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.311, decreasing by 0.024 or 0.55% [7] - US 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.856, decreasing by 0.012 or 0.25% [7] - UK 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.579, decreasing by 0.053 or 1.14% [7] - German 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.681, decreasing by 0.009 or 0.33% [7] - French 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.338, decreasing by 0.010 or 0.30% [7] - Italian 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.527, increasing by 0.001 or 0.03% [7] - Japanese 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.557, decreasing by 0.008 or 0.51% [7]

Commodity Market - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1389.490, showing a decrease of 1.060 or -0.08% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1244.410, reflecting an increase of 15.080 or +1.23% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3320.400, with a slight increase of 6.400 or +0.19% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 38.280, down by 0.050 or -0.13% [2] Foreign Exchange Market - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.157, down by 0.11% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.335, down by 0.03% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) remains unchanged at 148.543 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, down by 0.16% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.805, up by 0.17% [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 118312.530, up by 250.210 or +0.21% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 108.420, down by 0.600 or -0.55% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3829.320, with an increase of 30.320 or +0.80% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 3.119, down by 0.005 or -0.15% [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.916 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.964, down by 0.018 or -0.45% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.397, down by 0.045 or -1.01% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.937, down by 0.028 or -0.56% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.641, down by 0.011 or -0.24% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.687, down by 0.002 or -0.07% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.336, down by 0.014 or -0.42% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.514, down by 0.021 or -0.59% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.558, down by 0.002 or -0.13% [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1395.640, down by 6.600 or 0.47% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1235.320, up by 21.800 or 1.80% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3320.800, down by 17.400 or 0.52% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 38.300, down by 0.020 or 0.05% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.163, down by 0.90% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.342, down by 0.05% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 148.199, up by 0.37% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.652, down by 0.66% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.803, up by 0.93% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 118664.260, down by 751.050 or 0.63% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 112.170, down by 2.610 or 2.27% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3852.680, down by 19.430 or 0.50% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.193, down by 0.046 or 1.41% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.932, up by 0.015 or 0.38% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.973, up by 0.021 or 0.53% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.413, up by 0.027 or 0.62% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.959, up by 0.029 or 0.59% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.657, up by 0.025 or 0.54% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.690, down by 0.027 or 0.99% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.349, down by 0.039 or 1.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.533, down by 0.049 or 1.37% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.576, down by 0.021 or 1.31% [7]