中央银行独立性

Search documents
海外专家:警惕独立运营的中央银行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 12:53
因此,通过传统手段抑制通胀反而加剧了经济收缩的压力。许多政府如今面临"滞胀"威胁 —— 即经济衰退伴随通货膨胀。央行深知这种权衡关系:通胀下 降需以经济增长的相应收缩为代价。 作者:Jomo Kwame Sundaram,联合国前官员、马来西亚经济学家、亚太智库研究员 南非约翰内斯堡,国际新闻社。2025年9月23日,美国总统特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的尖刻抨击,重新唤起了人们对央行独立性的支持 —— 这种 独立性长期以来被强大的金融利益集团所滥用,损害了经济增长与公平性。 独立的中央银行本应提升货币政策的质量、公平性以及对经济增长的影响力。但如今,它们主要服务于强大的金融利益集团,其紧缩性和倒退性政策导致经 济缓慢且不均衡的增长。 独立于谁? 中央银行的设立旨在通过制定货币政策来塑造金融环境,从而实现国家经济目标。近几十年来,新的政策共识认为独立的中央银行应制定货币政策。因此, 在较小规模的开放型发展中国家,这些银行往往受到强大金融利益集团(通常是外国势力)的裹挟。 过去半个世纪里,许多政府在国际金融势力影响下修改法律,确立中央银行独立于行政和立法部门与政府地位平等。与此同时,随着"通货膨胀目标制"成 ...
近代中国财政对中央银行独立性的影响|金融人文
清华金融评论· 2025-09-21 11:02
文/ 瑞淼资本管理有限公司董事长、上海社会科学院经济研究所博士生 孟郁聪 中央银行的独立性是其有效履行职能的关键。近代中国战乱频仍,政府财 政始终十分窘迫。在这样的背景下,中央银行艰难前行,其独立性从晚清 成立伊始就受到财政影响,在北洋时期尚能保持一定的独立性,在南京国 民政府时期则逐渐完全沦为财政附庸。这一史实表明,政府财政过度影响 中央银行独立性会产生严重问题,值得警醒。 近代中国战乱频仍,政府财政始终十分窘迫。在这样的背景下,中央银行艰难前行,其独立性从晚清成立伊始就受到财政影响,在北洋时期尚能保持一定 的独立性,在南京国民政府时期则逐渐完全沦为财政附庸。近代中国中央银行面临的问题与当前有很大不同。然而,研究近代中国财政对中央银行独立性 的影响,仍能有所启示。 清末,中央财政在战争赔款、地方财政失控、传统农业税收入锐减等多重压力下入不敷出。为了挽救财政危机,清政府除采取盐斤加价、发行公债、成立 地方清理财政局等措施以外,还决定借鉴西方金融制度设立中央银行。1905年清政府设立的大清户部银行,被视为中国最早的中央银行。1908年,该行改 名大清银行。大清银行统一发行货币,取代地方和民间金融机构滥发的纸币, ...
【UNFX课堂】政治干预的阴影:美联储独立性保卫战与全球经济的潜在震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 02:22
Core Viewpoint - The warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence highlights a growing tension between U.S. politics and monetary policy, which could have profound implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, as historical instances of political interference have led to inflation spikes, currency devaluation, and stock market declines [1][2]. - Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including threats against Chairman Powell and legal actions against Governor Lisa Cook, reflect a desire for direct influence over monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a delicate balance in its monetary policy decisions, with inflation data remaining above the 2% target and concerns about a weakening labor market following a disappointing July employment report [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with nearly 90% probability, indicating concerns over economic slowdown and a potential shift towards more accommodative policies [2]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, as the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency is partly based on the strength and independence of its monetary policy [3]. - A loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets could result in capital outflows, dollar depreciation, and potential ripple effects across global financial markets, impacting borrowing costs, financial stability, and the global trade and investment landscape [3].
美联储主席鲍威尔:(谈特朗普施压)拥有独立的中央银行对公众有益,只要有利于公众利益,独立性就应得到尊重并继续下去。
news flash· 2025-07-30 19:07
美联储主席鲍威尔:(谈特朗普施压)拥有独立的中央银行对公众有益,只要有利于公众利益,独立性 就应得到尊重并继续下去。 ...
美联储古尔斯比:看到关于中央银行独立性的争论让我感到痛心。
news flash· 2025-07-18 15:10
Core Viewpoint - The discussion surrounding the independence of central banks is causing concern within the financial community, particularly highlighted by comments from Federal Reserve official Goolsbee [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee expresses disappointment regarding the ongoing debates about central bank independence [1]
日本财务省官员:二十国集团支持中央银行独立性具有重要意义。
news flash· 2025-07-18 14:27
Group 1 - The importance of supporting central bank independence by the G20 is emphasized by Japanese finance ministry officials [1]
G20财长和央行行长会议公报:承诺推进财政可持续性,提高生产力改革
news flash· 2025-07-18 13:25
Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting emphasized the commitment to promote fiscal sustainability and enhance productivity reforms [1] - The meeting addressed the debt issues faced by low-income countries and supported global minimum tax cooperation [1] - There was a focus on the importance of central bank independence and the international trade system [1] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the need for collaboration with Africa and improving the efficiency of health spending [1] - Strengthening pandemic prevention and response measures was also a key point of discussion [1]
G20财长和央行行长会议公报:中央银行的独立性对于实现价格稳定目标至关重要。
news flash· 2025-07-18 12:59
Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of central bank independence in achieving price stability goals [1]
德国央行行长:(就特朗普攻击美联储主席鲍威尔表示)独立性是中央银行的基因,随意干预非常危险。
news flash· 2025-07-17 10:49
Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is fundamental, and arbitrary interference is considered very dangerous [1] Group 1 - The President of the German Central Bank emphasized the importance of central bank independence in response to attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1]
坚守还是让步?美联储在特朗普施压下的政策抉择
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-12 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimal monetary policy for central banks when facing political pressure and public uncertainty regarding their independence, emphasizing the need for central banks to manage public beliefs about their autonomy through strategic policy choices [1][4][13]. Group 1: Background and Context - The article highlights the historical context of political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly during Trump's presidency, where he publicly criticized the Fed's policies and called for lower interest rates [2][3]. - It notes that despite the Fed's design to avoid political interference, mechanisms like congressional oversight and presidential nominations can still exert political pressure on monetary policy [3][6]. Group 2: Theoretical Framework - A theoretical model is constructed based on a New Keynesian framework, illustrating how central banks' policy decisions can influence public beliefs about their independence [8][9]. - The model incorporates a dynamic interaction where the central bank's policy choices not only respond to economic conditions but also affect public perceptions of its autonomy [9][10]. Group 3: Key Findings - The findings indicate that when the public doubts the central bank's independence, the bank may adopt more aggressive policies to signal its autonomy, even at the cost of short-term economic stability [4][11][12]. - The concept of "reputation investment" is introduced, where central banks may sacrifice short-term performance to enhance long-term credibility and trust among the public [11][13]. Group 4: Implications for Policy - The article emphasizes that central banks cannot rely solely on verbal assurances to establish their independence; instead, credible signals must come from costly actions that demonstrate their commitment to autonomy [14]. - It suggests that understanding the balance between reputation, trust, and political intervention is crucial for modern monetary policy [14].