来源：中金点睛 Abstract 摘要 1980年代以来，美股进入数十年的趋势长牛。经济结构转型与信息技术革命为企业带来了体量庞大且中短期难以证伪的扩张机会，而资金持续稳定的流入将 未来的经济潜力兑现为当下的股市估值，使得美股的增长幅度（即股市成长性）远高于经济增速（即经济成长性），美股市值占GDP的比例从八十年代的 60%涨至当下的超过200%。 当然，成长性想要持久，仍需各方支持性因素的呵护。 资产来看，政策和企业层面加速培育优质标的。宏观政策层面，1980年里根政府顺应全球化趋势，推动美国产业的"腾笼换鸟"，着力推动落后产能出清和高 新技术行业发展，扭转了美国经济效率长期下滑的趋势。企业层面，战后经济快速扩张阶段结束后，美国企业开始更加注重运营，高现金流企业在股市中逐 渐脱颖而出。金融政策改革也使得企业更加关注市值管理，特别是通过回购来提升股价。 资金来看，增量资金稳步流入股市。国内，受益于养老金体系的改革和金融技术进步，长线资金开始稳定流入股市，养老金、保险金和共同基金等专业投资 者的崛起逐渐起到了市场压舱石的作用。海外，美国从1980年代开启了趋势性贸易逆差，海外美元资金增多并回流美国完成"美元大循 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 资产来看，政策和企业层面加速培育优质标的。 宏观政策层面，1980年里根政府顺应全球化趋势，推动美国产业的"腾笼换鸟"，着力推动落后产能出清 和高新技术行业发展，扭转了美国经济效率长期下滑的趋势。企业层面，战后经济快速扩张阶段结束后，美国企业开始更加注重运营，高现金流企业在股 市中逐渐脱颖而出。金融政策改革也使得企业更加关注市值管理，特别是通过回购来提升股价。 资金来看，增量资金稳步流入股市。 国内，受益于养老金体系的改革和金融技术进步，长线资金开始稳定流入股市，养老金、保险金和共同基金等专业 投资者的崛起逐渐起到了市场压舱石的作用。海外，美国从1980年代开启了趋势性贸易逆差，海外美元资金增多并回流美国完成"美元大循环"，构成了美 股重要的稳定买家。政策上，九十年代美联储看跌期权逐渐强化，在股市下跌时从资金和信心上为市场兜底。 全球环境来看，1980年代起美国主导推进全球化，对美股长期牛市的资产和资金端均起到了关键作用。 全球化带来的效率提升和规模经济，助力经济转 型和信息技术革命[1]；全球化加速推动"美元大循环"的形成，又带来了海外资金持续流入美股。 目录 ...

1）特朗普的政策不确定性加大，带来金融市场更明显的动荡和海外资金更快逃离美元。2）全球经济在关税越发明确 的情况下受到更大影响，2026 年全球同步宽松幅度超预期，甚至带来全球共振扩表，明显缓解长端利率压力。3）技 术突破带来制造业回流加剧，美国生产成本明显降息，信用需求激增。4）数据测算存在误差。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9 月非农的数 据指向了 12 月继续降息的必要性。9 月失业率继续跳升 0.12 个百分点，从 8 月的 4.32%升至 4.44%，已经几乎达到 联储在 9 月 SEP 中预期的年末 4.5%水平。更为关键的是，失业率的持续上行意味着美国劳动力的供给似乎并没有想 象中的弱，即过去几个月，个位数甚至负增长的非农新增就业低估了就业的疲软程度。 因此，我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性。 如果 12 月不降息，将带来实体经济进一步走弱的风险。其次，美股 AI 叙事将遭受更大波动。最后，无论是"鹰派降 息"和"鸽派暂停"，货币政策预期管理将更加混乱，我们可能会见到有史以 ...

"鹰派大战"中美联储内部本就分歧重重，如今又遇到了新难题。 美国东部时间11月19日，美联储公布了10月28日至29日的货币政策会议纪要，决策者对12月是否继续降 息存在较大分歧。彼时美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，12月降息并非板上钉钉。 美联储货币政策本就踌躇不定，关键数据的缺失让未来笼罩了更深的阴霾。美国劳工统计局表示不会发 布10月非农就业报告，并将11月非农的发布日期调整至12月16日，比美联储12月利率决议还要晚。 如今，利率市场的交易员们对12月降息已经不抱太大希望。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，美联储12月降 息的可能性仅约为30%。在数据迷雾下，美联储更好的选择可能是"停飞"而不是"盲飞"。 会议纪要分歧重重 在最新美联储会议纪要中，一系列微妙信号需要密切关注。 中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，10月FOMC会议纪要释放了三 大信号。一是鹰派倾向。尽管参会者几乎一致认为应该停止缩表，但在利率方面，越来越多的官员因为 担忧通胀下降的进展，对继续宽松持谨慎的观点，这种变化在边际上呈现出了鹰派倾向。 二是美联储内部分歧严重。会议纪要提到，一些（Seve ...

在最新美联储会议纪要中，一系列微妙信号需要密切关注。 中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，10月FOMC会议纪要释放了三 大信号。一是鹰派倾向。尽管参会者几乎一致认为应该停止缩表，但在利率方面，越来越多的官员因为 担忧通胀下降的进展，对继续宽松持谨慎的观点，这种变化在边际上呈现出了鹰派倾向。 二是美联储内部分歧严重。会议纪要提到，一些（Several）与会者评估认为可能适合进一步降息，而许 多（Many）与会者表示，在今年剩余时间内，适合维持利率不变。因此，支持与反对12月降息的官员 数量实际上几乎相当，并未有一方呈现压倒性优势，意味着美联储内部分歧严重。这种相对混乱的信号 在短期加剧政策不确定性，引发投资者风险规避，体现在近期风险资产波动放大。 三是金融市场稳定性。纪要显示，"部分与会者评论了金融市场资产估值过高的问题，一些与会者强调 股票价格可能无序下跌的风险，尤其是在市场突然重新评估人工智能（AI）相关技术前景的情况下"。 这意味着金融市场稳定性状况开始进入美联储的视野。 21世纪经济报道记者 吴斌 "鹰派大战"中美联储内部本就分歧重重，如今又遇到了新难题。 美国东部时间1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global monetary easing policies are driving a sustained risk appetite until the end of 2025, with investors pursuing returns in gold, stocks, and credit markets [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has surged by 53% this year, stocks have risen by 21%, and Bitcoin has increased by nearly 15% [2] - Investment-grade bonds have appreciated by approximately 10%, while high-yield bonds have gained 9% [2] - The US dollar has declined by 8%, and oil prices have dropped by 16% year-to-date [2] Group 2: Risk Factors and Sentiment - The "tail risks" that were anticipated for 2025 have not materialized, contributing to a stable market environment [2] - US Treasury volatility has decreased to its lowest level since 2021, and a trade truce between the US and China has been reached [2] - The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator has slightly increased from 6.2 to 6.3, reflecting a general strengthening of global stock markets and an improved credit environment [3] Group 3: Fund Flows and Positioning - Recent fund flows indicate $36.5 billion has entered cash, $17.2 billion into stocks, and $17 billion into bonds, while gold has seen an outflow of $7.5 billion [3] - The Japanese stock market has experienced its largest capital inflow since April, while materials stocks have faced record outflows [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Risk appetite is expected to persist until inflation shows a significant rebound, with a forecast of 81 additional rate cuts globally by 2026 [4] - The strategist warns of potential "bubble signs" in risk assets and suggests that excessive confidence in AI-driven stock performance may be misplaced [4] - Recommendations include gold and Chinese stocks as hedges against speculative excess, with caution advised if key market indicators show sharp reversals [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - A large regional bank merger has sparked optimism for a wave of larger mergers, with AMD's partnership with OpenAI significantly boosting its stock price, leading to an increase in U.S. stock index futures [2] - As of the report, Dow futures rose by 0.20%, S&P 500 futures by 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.70% [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have seen four weeks of gains in the past five weeks, with increases of 1.1% and 1.3% respectively last week [2] Group 2: AMD and OpenAI Partnership - AMD has entered a partnership with OpenAI, allowing OpenAI to acquire up to 10% of AMD through multiple batches of warrants, resulting in a pre-market surge of over 30% in AMD's stock price [2] - AMD will utilize specific models of GPUs in the coming years, while its main competitor, Nvidia, faced downward pressure following the announcement [2] Group 3: Bank Merger Impact - Fifth Third Bank announced an all-stock acquisition of Comerica Bank valued at $10.9 billion, causing Comerica's stock price to rise by 14% [2] - The newly formed bank will become the ninth largest in the U.S. by asset size, contributing to expectations of more mergers in the sector [3] Group 4: Economic Sentiment - Despite the ongoing government shutdown, investor sentiment remains optimistic, focusing on corporate earnings prospects and potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Analysts believe that if the market experiences a significant drop due to the government shutdown, it could present a buying opportunity [3] Group 5: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Chairman Jerome Powell, despite key economic data being delayed due to the government shutdown [4] Group 6: Corporate Earnings Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that U.S. corporate earnings will exceed expectations, driven by strong economic performance and a robust outlook for the AI sector [6] - The consensus forecast for S&P 500 companies' Q3 profit growth is 7.2%, the lowest in two years, with sales growth expected to slow from 6.4% to 5.9% [6] Group 7: Mining and Cryptocurrency Stocks - Mining stocks, including Sigma Lithium and Standard Lithium, saw pre-market gains, with discussions of U.S. government investment in key metal companies [7] - Cryptocurrency stocks also rose, with Bitcoin reaching a new high of $125,000, reflecting growing interest in the sector [7]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.20%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.70% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.29%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.15%, while France's CAC40 down by 1.20% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.12% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 1.22%, reaching $61.62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.24% to $65.33 per barrel [3][4] Economic and Political Developments - OPEC+ agreed to a cautious increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, alleviating concerns over excessive production [6] - France's political crisis intensified as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned shortly after a cabinet reshuffle, leading to increased yields on French government bonds and widening the spread with German bonds to over 89 basis points, the highest since the end of 2024 [7] Company News - OpenAI and AMD announced a multi-billion dollar partnership to develop AI data centers powered by AMD processors, with OpenAI committing to purchase AMD chips equivalent to 6 gigawatts of computing power [8] - Eli Lilly plans to invest over $1 billion in India to enhance production capacity for key medications, including those for obesity and diabetes [9] - Boeing is reportedly guiding suppliers to increase the production of the 737 Max to 42 units per month by October 2025, with further increases planned by the end of 2026 [10]

Group 1 - The month of September saw significant deterioration in various aspects, including the potential government shutdown and bleak employment outlook, yet it marked a historic period for commodities, stocks, and forex markets due to a strong upward betting trend [1] - Gold prices surged by 12%, marking the eighth consecutive increase in nine months, while global stock markets continued their upward trajectory, adding approximately $35 trillion in market capitalization [2] - The proportion of pure long-only actively managed funds outperforming benchmarks has dropped to 22%, potentially leading to the worst performance on record [2] Group 2 - A commodity trading advisor index tracking price trends rose nearly 6% in September, and similar trend-following funds achieved their best monthly performance since 2022 [5] - The consensus has shifted positively, with market confidence bolstered by the expectation that President Trump may retract harsher trade measures, alongside the Federal Reserve's focus shifting from inflation to a weak labor market [5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.5% in September and continued to increase by 1% the following week, while the dollar maintained a broader downtrend and gold prices rose for the seventh consecutive week [5] Group 3 - Financial system liquidity has been a significant factor supporting risk assets, with the growth rate of money supply exceeding GDP growth, leading to increased inflows into stock and credit markets [6] - In September, total deposits into U.S. ETFs reached $141 billion, marking the third-highest level on record, indicating a broad liquidity seeking to be deployed across various asset classes [6] - The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF attracted approximately $2.8 billion in 2025, poised for its best annual inflow since 2018, while a high-beta momentum stock basket surged by 17% last month [9]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.48%, marking its 27th record high of the year, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.29% and the Nasdaq rose by 0.94%, both reaching historical highs [1] - Chip stocks performed strongly, with Intel surging over 22%, Applied Materials and ASML rising over 6%, and Micron Technology increasing over 5% [1] - However, popular Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.79%, and notable declines in stocks like NetEase (over 4%), Bilibili (over 3%), and Alibaba (over 2%) [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has sparked attention, with indications that it is not the beginning of aggressive easing but a cautious response to economic uncertainties, particularly a soft labor market and persistent inflation [2] - Analysts suggest that the "preemptive" nature of the rate cut is significant, and if labor market weakness continues, further cuts may follow, leading to a more accommodative monetary policy environment [2] - The market perceives that the Fed is willing to sacrifice part of its dual mandate in light of high inflation, with expectations that the dollar's rebound will be short-lived [2] Group 3: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, increasing its holdings by $3.8 billion to $1.1514 trillion as of July [3] - The UK saw a significant increase in its holdings by $41.3 billion to a record high of $899.3 billion [4] - In contrast, China reduced its holdings by $25.7 billion to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009, reflecting a trend of diversifying foreign reserves amid changing U.S.-China relations [4]