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尿素:短期宏观利好释放,中期压力仍偏大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 01:58
Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Short - term, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement has increased, and the futures price may rebound from a low valuation driven by the improvement of commodity sentiment. Mid - term, the urea fundamentals still face pressure, and the price center may gradually decline, but the release of exports may bring multi - stage price rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,739 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the trading volume was 269,277 lots, an increase of 105,710 lots; the open interest was 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,357 tons, down 52 tons; the trading value was 9.36559 billion yuan, an increase of 3.56433 billion yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 128, up 32; the difference between Fengxi and the disk was - 12, up 32; the difference between Dongguang and the disk was 108, up 52; the spread between UR09 - UR01 was 52, down 16 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Shandong Ruixing, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 20 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas decreased by 20 yuan to 1,850 yuan/ton and 1,710 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 90.16%, up 0.57 percentage points, and the daily output was 207,310 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons [2] 2. Industry News - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 5.59%. Due to the weakening of short - term speculative activities of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue rising next week [2] - Futures: Short - term, the futures price may rebound from a low valuation driven by the improvement of commodity sentiment. Mid - term, the urea fundamentals still face pressure, and the price center may gradually decline, but the release of exports may bring multi - stage price rebounds [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]