截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，据长江有色金属网获悉，长江现货 1# 锡报价区间 414250-416250 元 / 吨，均 价 415250 元 / 吨，单日暴涨 11500 元，强势站上 41 万关口。在节后复工提速、全球宏观情绪回暖的双 重驱动下，锡价迎来 "开门红"，但涨幅受限的背后，是供需博弈与外部风险的多重拉扯。本文结合当 日锡市行情、宏观动向及产业逻辑，拆解锡价上涨的核心驱动，为回收商与投资者提供实操参考。 一、价格表现：单日暴涨 11500 元，锡价站上 41 万关口 2 月 26 日，锡价迎来节后最强单日涨幅，长江现货 1# 锡均价跳涨至 415250 元 / 吨，较前一交易日大 涨 11500 元，涨幅近 2.86%。从日内走势看，锡价开盘即跳空高开，依托 41 万关口强势上行，现货市 场 "有货难求"，贸易商惜售情绪浓厚，下游企业询盘踊跃，成交氛围显著升温。 但值得注意的是，锡价涨幅并未延续早盘的强势，午后有所收窄，呈现 "冲高回落" 态势，显示市场在 41 万关口存在明显分歧，短期上涨动能有所衰减。 二、核心驱动：供应收缩 + 宏观利好，涨幅受限源于需求现实 涨幅受限的关键因素 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Supported by macro and fundamental factors, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to over - heated market sentiment and strong US economic data. It is recommended to control positions [4]. - Long - term: The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The strategy should focus on buying on dips or selling slightly out - of - the - money put options. Long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On January 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.07% at 1040.62 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 8.03% at 22763 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: On January 14, London gold spot was at $4632.61/ounce, London silver spot was at $89.97/ounce, etc. The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases compared to January 13, with silver having a more substantial increase. For example, the price of London silver spot increased by 6.0% [3]. - **Spread**: The spreads of gold and silver, such as the difference between TD and SHFE active prices, and the difference between domestic and foreign markets, also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4.31 yuan/gram on January 14, with a change rate of 68.4% compared to January 13 [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 13 (weekly data, latest up to January 6), the positions of non - commercial long and short positions in COMEX gold and silver changed. For example, the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 0.42% compared to January 12 [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 14, SHFE gold inventory was 100152.00 kilograms, an increase of 1.90% compared to January 13. SHFE silver inventory was 628696.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.22% compared to January 13 [3]. 3.5 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - On January 14, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.01, with a change of 0.02% compared to January 13. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The continuous spread of global geopolitical risks, such as the withdrawal of US personnel from Middle - East bases and the increase of Danish military forces in Greenland, has increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals. Silver has also been boosted by macro and fundamental factors, with stronger price increases in the domestic market [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices increased with rising positions and maintained strong performance today with continuous growth in positions. The closing price today rose nearly 4,000 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. Against the backdrop of a shrinking copper industry supply and renewed disturbances at the mine end, there was a resonance of macro and industrial benefits. In the short term, macro and industrial expectations are driving copper prices up, but the industry is in a weak - reality stage with continuously rising global electrolytic copper inventories [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, Shanghai aluminum prices increased with rising positions, and the main contract price reached the 24,000 yuan mark. It maintained a strong and volatile operation today with a decrease in positions. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. The industry followed passively, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Recently, the strong performance of aluminum prices has benefited to some extent from macro - easing and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. In the short term, aluminum prices are approaching the highs of 2022 and 2021, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 135,000 yuan, and today it rose close to the 140,000 - yuan mark. Since this week, the macro - environment has been favorable, and the general rise of non - ferrous metals has largely driven up nickel prices. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 - yuan mark to the 130,000 - yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decrease in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the position volume of nickel prices has not continued to rise, which may reflect insufficient willingness of funds to drive. Continuous attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the New Year's Day holiday, copper prices reached a new high. The downstream demand of refined copper rods in various fields remained weak, and orders did not improve significantly compared to before the holiday. Some refined copper rod enterprises continued to suspend production and said they would wait and see the copper price trend to formulate production plans. On January 5, LME copper prices exceeded $13,000 per ton for the first time due to a strike at a Chilean copper mine, supply gap expectations, and low inventories in LME - certified warehouses. On January 5, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared to the 31st [10]. Aluminum - On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared to the 25th [10]. Nickel - On the supply side, with the continuous rise of the futures price, the market sentiment was bullish, and upstream enterprises continued to raise their quotes. On the demand side, there was a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment from downstream, and some traders were actively buying, pushing up the transaction price. Overall, the market transaction price continued to rise, and the price of high - nickel pig iron was expected to continue to increase [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by macroeconomic benefits, policy support, and supply constraints, leading to optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) rising by 1.76% and Zijin Mining increasing by 2.11% [1] - Precious metals are gaining strength due to a weaker US dollar and escalating geopolitical risks, supported by their financial and safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The industrial metals sector is performing strongly, driven by expectations of macroeconomic easing and rigid supply [1] - Policy encouragement for mergers and acquisitions is expected to enhance the bargaining power of leading companies, reinforcing the sector's logic [1] - Copper is driven by expectations of future supply shortages, while aluminum benefits from low inventory and favorable policies, indicating potential for price recovery [1] Group 3: Sub-sector Insights - The performance of new energy metals and minor metals shows divergence, with raw material shortages being a key variable [1] - Cobalt is supported by expectations of overseas supply disruptions, lithium prices are fluctuating at high levels, and rare earths are adjusting in the short term due to demand impacts, with long-term value reassessment driven by policy [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain a strong trend supported by macroeconomic, policy, and supply factors, with a focus on the rigid supply logic of copper and aluminum, as well as the allocation value of precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ordered military focus on the blockade of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months [2][22] - The inventory of pure benzene in East China is currently around 264,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 6.02% rise [23][30] - The domestic comprehensive operating rate of pure benzene is 77.01%, up by 0.35 percentage points compared to the previous period [24][7] Group 2 - Recent rebounds in crude oil prices have led to a slight increase in pure benzene prices, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent inventory pressures [25] - The operating rate of domestic styrene is 71.31%, which is an increase of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week [32] - The main inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is currently 132,000 tons, with a slight increase of 2,000 tons, while trade spot volume remains stable at around 100,000 tons [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and steel pricing reverted to fundamentals. Supply is affected by iron - water production cuts, but profit rebounds may slow down the cut - off speed. Demand is seasonally weak due to shrinking real - estate steel use and construction restrictions, and new export regulations suppress export expectations. The overall trend of steel is oscillating weakly [3]. - After macro - events, the trading logic of iron ore has returned to fundamentals. With restrained shipments from major mines, falling freight rates, low steel - mill inventories, and high coking - coal production and inventory, the downside of iron - ore prices is limited [21]. - For coking coal, supply changes are limited, but steel - mill profit pressure leads to iron - water production cuts. Coking enterprises control procurement, and mine inventory pressure is increasing, so short - term coal prices will be under pressure. For coke, production has declined slightly due to environmental protection. After two rounds of price cuts, if there is no policy intervention, coke supply - demand may deteriorate, and prices may continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from relevant departments has led to a price rebound. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge, suppressing prices [46]. - With the strengthening of new - capacity production expectations, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. Glass cold - repair is accelerating, weakening the rigid - demand expectation. Although exports are high, high upper - and middle - stream inventories restrict prices [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, affecting far - month pricing. Near - month contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand create pressure on spot prices [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed minor fluctuations compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly. The rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was 11 yuan/ton on December 17, up 2 yuan from the previous day [4]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed little change. The summary price of rebar in China was 3299 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [9]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions was mostly negative or showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was not available on December 17, while it was 190 yuan/ton the previous day [9]. 3.1.3 Other Ratios - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on December 17, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 [18]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Futures Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of iron - ore contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The 01 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [22]. - The basis of iron - ore contracts decreased. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [22]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data - From November 14 to December 12, 2025, the average daily iron - water production decreased by 7.68 tons, the 45 - port shipping volume decreased by 7.76 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 76.1 tons [25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Futures Spreads and Ratios - On December 17, 2025, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 162.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day [34]. - The coking profit on the disk was 21 yuan/ton, up 17.353 yuan from the previous day [34]. 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Profits - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions mostly remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [37]. - The immediate coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 76 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 62 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [47]. - The silicon - iron spot prices in different regions showed minor changes. The silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day [47]. 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 132 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [48]. - The silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or increased slightly. The silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash 3.5.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the soda - ash 05 contract was 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day [61]. - The basis of soda ash in different regions decreased. The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 27 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan from the previous day [61]. 3.5.2 Spot Prices - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61]. 3.6 Glass 3.6.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1038 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 176 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [84]. - The basis of the glass 01 contract in different regions increased. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 68 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [84]. 3.6.2 Sales and Production - From December 5 - 12, 2025, the glass sales - to - production ratios in different regions fluctuated. The Shahe sales - to - production ratio on December 12 was 59% [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and pricing returned to fundamentals. Steel supply is reducing, but the recovery of steel mill profits may slow down the reduction speed. Demand is seasonally weak, and steel exports are expected to tighten. Steel inventories show different trends, with short - term prices fluctuating weakly [3]. - After macro events, trading logic returned to fundamentals. Iron ore supply from major mines is restricted, and steel mills have a need to replenish inventory. Iron ore demand is seasonally declining but is expected to rebound in January. Falling coking coal prices provide support, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - Coking coal supply has limited marginal changes, but due to pressure on steel mill profits and unexpected reduction in hot metal production, coking coal supply exceeds demand. Coke production decreased slightly last week due to environmental restrictions. With the decline in coking coal costs, coke prices are likely to continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from the SASAC and the National Development and Reform Commission led to a price rebound today. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [47]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity expectations, the expectation of soda ash oversupply is intensifying. The acceleration of glass cold - repair weakens the demand for soda ash. Although exports are high, high inventories restrict prices [65]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Near - term contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and weak end - market demand put pressure on spot prices [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3090, 3081, and 3112 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3254, 3246, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The rebar spot prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were 3295, 3280, 3120, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3270, 3260, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively [9][11]. Ratio and Spread Data - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 [18]. - The 01, 05, and 10 roll - to - rebar spreads were 164, 165, and 143 yuan/ton respectively, and the roll - to - rebar spot spreads in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang were - 10, 210, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [15]. Iron Ore Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 783.5, 761, and 739.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 basis were 1, 25, and 46.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - The prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 779, 856, and 666 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons, 45 - port throughput was 319.19 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 840 tons [25]. - Global shipments were 3592.5 tons, Australia - Brazil shipments were 2889.3 tons, and 45 - port arrivals were 2723.4 tons [25]. - The 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8834.2 tons [25]. Coal and Coke Price Data - The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 170.5, - 76.5, and - 94 yuan/ton respectively, and those of coke were 234, - 78.5, and - 155.5 yuan/ton respectively [35]. - The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [38]. Ratio and Profit Data - The main mine - to - coke ratio was 0.503, the main rebar - to - coke ratio was 2.034, and the main coke - to - coal ratio was 1.524 [35]. - The on - the - spot coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal import profit (long - term agreement) was 213 yuan/ton [38]. Ferroalloys Price Data - The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 154 yuan/ton [48][49]. - The spot prices of silicon - iron in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5250, 5280, and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot prices of silicon - manganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou were 5490, 5540, and 5550 yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. Cost and Inventory Data - The price of semi - coke small materials was 800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 737 yuan/ton [48]. - The silicon - iron warehouse receipts were 13068, and the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 25032 [48][50]. Soda Ash Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1170, 1221, and 1133 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 51, 88, and - 37 yuan/ton respectively [66]. - The heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and East China were 1300, 1400, and 1250 yuan/ton respectively [66]. Fundamental Data - In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining a high level [65]. - The upper - and middle - stream inventories were generally high, restricting soda ash prices [65]. Glass Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1038, 1117, and 946 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 79, 171, and - 92 yuan/ton respectively [89]. - The 01 - contract basis in Shahe and Hubei was 64 and 140 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Sales and Production Data - On December 12, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 59, 90, 89, and 102 respectively [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,527 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.36%. The position of the main contract was 26,038 lots, a decrease of 1,960 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained unchanged week-on-week. The supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures, but considering the potential macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of coke's decline needs further observation. The main negative risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][35]. - On December 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070 points, with an intraday decline of 1.29%. The position of the main contract was 507,274 lots, an increase of 12,553 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,170 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerated release of Mongolian coal imports has brought supply - side pressure, leading to the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of this round of decline in coking coal futures needs further observation. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [5][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to November, national railway fixed - asset investment reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, which effectively promoted social investment and supported high - quality economic and social development [7]. - On December 10, the auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market decreased. Among the 6 reported transactions, the total listed volume was 83,000 tons, with 58,000 tons sold and a non - sale rate of about 30% (up from 18% last week). The average transaction price of high - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 1,221 yuan/ton, while the average transaction prices of low - sulfur main coking coal were 1,404 yuan/ton and 1,443 yuan/ton respectively. In the short term, prices are weakly stable [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 6.90% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | - 8.59% | - 0.85% | - 5.65% | | Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 5.10% | 0.00% | - 5.10% | | Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,527 yuan/ton | + 0.36% | 1,562 yuan/ton | 1,513.5 yuan/ton | 21,233 lots | 6,900 lots | 26,038 lots | - 1,960 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,070 points | - 1.29% | 1,095.5 points | 1,067 points | 903,929 lots | 117,173 lots | 507,274 lots | 12,553 lots | [12] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant inventory), as well as other relevant data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][21][28] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the impact of coking coal supply pressure on the weak operation of both, while also considering the potential positive factors from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year. The sustainability of the decline in both needs further observation [5][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the combined daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have offered concessions to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. In the short term, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the potential macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the coke price decline remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][37]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 754,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. At the import end, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port in November was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase compared to October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high this year. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. Overall, the increase in imported coal supply drives the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [6][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work for 2026 and reviewed the "Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Advancement of the Rule of Law." The meeting noted that this year is of great significance in the process of Chinese - style modernization. The economy is generally stable with progress, new - quality productivity is developing steadily, and positive progress has been made in risk mitigation in key areas [8]. - On December 8, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton, including cash and taxes [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared to the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month increase of 0.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%, and a decrease of 10.98% compared to the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week, month - on - month, and compared to the same period, but a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 3.51%, a year - on - year increase of 7.84%, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the same period [10]. Futures Market - For the coke futures active contract, the closing price was 1,537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79%. The highest price was 1,600 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,523 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 25,408 lots, an increase of 3,949 lots, and the open interest was 28,088 lots, an increase of 1,550 lots [14]. - For the coking coal futures active contract, the closing price was 1,093.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14%. The highest price was 1,138 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,082.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,129,532 lots, an increase of 343,693 lots, and the open interest was 493,639 lots, an increase of 24,153 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel - mill coking plants for coke; and the inventory at mine mouths, ports, and in 247 sample steel mills for coking coal. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][29]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlooks is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, the impact of supply pressure on prices, and the uncertainty regarding price decline sustainability due to potential macro - level positive news and expected coal - mine production cuts [37][38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the total daily coke output of all independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.323 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have given profits to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. Considering the possible macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the cost - side pressure on coke is expected to have limited room for further increase, and the main contract may gradually stabilize. The downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6][39]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 754,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. In November, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase from October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high for the year. The total daily coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The negative factors in November have been released, and with the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the downside space for coking - coal futures is expected to be limited, and it may stabilize and fluctuate in the near future. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [7][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Shanxi aims to deepen the energy revolution, promote the construction of "Five Major Bases", ensure national energy security, and promote the high - end development of the coal industry and the transformation of coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. It also focuses on the high - quality development of the energy and raw - material industries and the green - low - carbon transformation [9]. - On December 5, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable, with low - sulfur primary coking coal at 1,470 yuan/ton and 1/3 coking coal at 1,180 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [10]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 2.99%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.50%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly increase of 0.69%, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 6.25%, an annual increase of 1.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no weekly, monthly, or year - on - year change, but an annual increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 3.51%, an annual increase of 7.84%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.37% [11]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%. The highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,585 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 214,591 lots, an increase of 18,131 lots, and the open interest was 265,380 lots, a decrease of 527 lots [15]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. The highest price was 1,193 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,138.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 785,839 lots, an increase of 448,608 lots, and the open interest was 469,486 lots, an increase of 60,508 lots [15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking - coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking - plant coking - coal inventory), domestic steel - mill production (blast - furnace开工率 and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and开工率), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [16][24][31]. 5. Future Outlook - The future outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, potential macro - level positive factors, and expected coal - mine production cuts [39][40].