Core Viewpoints - The article presents a dual perspective on the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on both financial conditions ("who holds the deposits") and economic realities ("spring water flows to the midstream") [3][4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for awakening the investment value of the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [6][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [15] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, between 0% and 1%, with a neutral expectation of around 1% [16] - Consumption is anticipated to align with nominal GDP growth, while exports are expected to show resilience with a growth rate of around 5% [16][18] - The fiscal budget expenditure growth rate is likely to be set at around 5%, with an increase in government debt expected [17][18] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, but its investment significance may be limited [19][20] - PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to show an upward trend, with the potential for a positive turnaround depending on economic conditions in the first half of 2026 [21][22] - Housing prices remain uncertain, with a focus on the relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields as a potential indicator for price stabilization [23][24][27] Midstream Economic Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to outperform in the next 3-6 months, with notable changes in profit margins for midstream companies, particularly in overseas markets [30][34] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream sector are shifting, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition benefiting this segment [35][36] - The midstream sector is seen as having strong potential due to its differentiation from upstream and downstream sectors, which are currently facing challenges [39][40] Financial Conditions and Deposit Distribution - The distribution of deposits will significantly influence market valuations and investment styles in 2026 [47][48] - M2 growth is expected to decline, impacting stock market valuations and the relative performance of different market segments [48][49] - The transfer of deposits from residents to enterprises or non-bank financial institutions will be crucial for driving economic activity and stock market engagement [52][53][60] Investment Insights and Conclusions - The article emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the stock market, with a focus on safety margins and profit improvements [50][51] - The potential for a bull market in stocks is acknowledged, but the pace of growth may slow compared to previous years [87] - The article suggests that the investment landscape will require careful monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments to identify key turning points [51][88]