"物价低位运行""落实落细适度宽松的货币政策""关注长期收益率的变化"，近日召开的中国人民银行货 币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会（以下简称"会议"）释放出一系列关键政策信号。一方面，从当前经 济金融形势来看，物价低位运行但主要宏观经济指标边际改善，为货币政策灵活调整提供了空间；另一 方面，部署四季度货币政策实施，会议表述更倾向于"用好存量、释放效能"，更加注重结构性工具的运 用，但不代表支持性货币政策转向。 物价水平偏低 对于国内外经济金融形势的研判，会议定调，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸 易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行稳 中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和 挑战。 对比二季度例会内容来看，本次会议表述变化主要体现在，"我国经济呈现向好态势"变为"经济运行稳 中有进"，"高质量发展扎实"变为"高质量发展取得新成效"；挑战方面，"物价持续低位运行"变为"物价 低位运行"。 数据显示，8月核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅连续第四个月扩大；PPI同比为-2.9%，降幅较7月收窄 ...

Group 1 - The national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August 2025, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9%, marking four consecutive months of expansion [1][4] - The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a shift from decline to stability on a month-on-month basis [1][4] - The divergence in price indicators reflects a differentiated recovery in the domestic consumption market and industrial sector [1] Group 2 - Food prices were the main drag on the CPI, with significant declines in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, while non-food prices rose by 0.5%, particularly in services [3] - The PPI showed positive signals as it ended an eight-month decline, with prices in upstream industries like coal processing and black metal smelting turning from decline to increase [3] - Emerging industries such as integrated circuit packaging and shipbuilding saw price recoveries, indicating positive effects from industrial structure adjustments [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the current price trend exhibits characteristics of "core stability and structural improvement," with the core CPI reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic demand [4] - The narrowing PPI decline suggests improvements in industry capacity governance and stability in supply chains, particularly in key industries [4] - The recovery in emerging industry prices injects new momentum into the industrial economy, indicating that the recovery process in the industrial sector may be faster than expected [4] Group 4 - Experts anticipate that the recovery momentum in the consumption market will continue to be released, with service prices likely to remain high due to the normalization of peak seasons for tourism and accommodation [6] - The construction of a unified national market is expected to optimize industry competition, while macro policies will continue to drive structural adjustments in industries [6] - However, fluctuations in international commodity prices may pose input-related impacts, and the issue of insufficient domestic effective demand requires ongoing policy support [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are showing positive effects, leading to improvements in market supply and demand relationships and some positive price changes [1][2] - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with industrial consumer goods prices rising by 0.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction in the rate of decline since March [1] Group 2 - The prices of coal, steel, cement, photovoltaic products, and lithium battery manufacturing saw a reduction in month-on-month decline rates by 0.1 to 1.9 percentage points, contributing to a decrease in the downward pressure on PPI by 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Despite external uncertainties and competitive pressures in some domestic industries, the foundation for reasonable price recovery is being strengthened by more proactive macro policies and ongoing actions to boost consumption [2]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price disorderly competition rather than driving up prices, as the fundamental factor determining prices remains supply and demand, which is currently insufficient in the domestic market [1][4] - The "anti-involution" policy has been reinforced throughout the year, with various measures implemented to regulate low-price competition, including the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the draft amendment to the Price Law [1][2] - The industrial producer price index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of -3.6% in July, but the month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% in June to -0.2%, indicating some stabilization in prices within certain industries [2][3] Group 2 - The core consumer price index (CPI) has been rising for three consecutive months, primarily due to reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors, along with seasonal increases in service consumption [2][3] - The effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy is seen as a structural and moderate influence on prices, focusing on quality, service, and innovation rather than merely stimulating demand [4][5] - The recovery of prices is contingent upon the strength of demand recovery and the coordination of policies, with current consumer demand still lacking [3][4]

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to improve market supply and demand relationships in certain sectors [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month, indicating a positive shift in industrial consumer goods prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was narrower than the previous month, marking the first contraction reduction since March [3] Group 2 - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles stabilized in July, halting a consecutive decline, which reflects a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [3] - The government anticipates that with more proactive macroeconomic policies and ongoing consumption-boosting initiatives, the foundation for reasonable price recovery will be strengthened [3] - Despite external uncertainties and competitive pressures in some domestic industries, the regulation of low-price competition is expected to support price stabilization and improvement in key sectors [3]

Economic Performance Overview - In July, the industrial production showed a rapid growth with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. For the first seven months, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first seven months amounted to 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate was 5.3% [1] Economic Stability and Growth Factors - Despite fluctuations in some economic indicators in July, the overall growth rate of major indicators remains stable, with employment and prices generally stable. The economy is maintaining a steady growth trend [2] - The expansion of market demand is supported by ongoing consumption initiatives, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months, and service retail sales increasing by 5.2% [2] - The high-tech manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in added value for the first seven months, indicating a positive development in new productive forces [3] Trade and Export Dynamics - In July, the total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience and vitality in foreign trade [5] - The diversification of foreign trade is showing positive results, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative growing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively in the first seven months [6] - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.3%, with integrated circuit exports growing by 21.8% [6] Price Trends and Inflation - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [7] - The improvement in market supply and demand relationships has led to some positive changes in prices, with certain sectors experiencing reduced competitive pressure [7]

Group 1 - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is "correction" rather than "stimulation," aiming to reshape the logic of industrial competition [1][5] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on prices is structural and mild, with the key variables for future price trends being the strength of demand recovery and the pace of policy coordination [1][5] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in positive changes in pricing [2] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, signals of the "anti-involution" policy have been continuously reinforced, with various measures taken to address "involution-style" competition [2] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law prohibits selling goods below cost, providing a legal basis for combating "involution-style" competition [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained at a low of -3.6% year-on-year, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3] - The improvement in PPI is primarily concentrated in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending [4] - The transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective, as insufficient terminal consumer demand limits companies' pricing power [4]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.4%, exceeding seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction reduction since March [1] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant price hikes in air tickets (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), hotel accommodation (6.9%), and vehicle rentals (4.4%) [1] Group 2: Impact of Consumption Policies - The "trade-in" policy for old vehicles has stabilized prices for fuel and new energy vehicles, which had been declining for over five months [2] - The prices of household appliances have also shown a significant increase, indicating that consumption promotion policies are effectively supporting the overall price level [2] - The central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition in the automotive sector is expected to further stabilize prices and support the overall price level [2] Group 3: Industry Competition and Price Adjustments - The construction of a unified national market has led to improved competition in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries, with price declines in these sectors narrowing [3] - The month-on-month price declines in coal mining, black metal smelting, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, cement manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing have decreased by 1.9, 1.5, 0.8, 0.3, and 0.1 percentage points respectively, reducing the overall downward pressure on PPI [3] - The overall trend indicates a narrowing of PPI declines, with the year-on-year decline remaining stable due to changes in the previous year's base [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][3][4] - The year-on-year stability of the CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which decreased by 1.6% compared to the same month last year. Fresh vegetable prices fell by 7.6%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8% [3][4] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up by 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up by 0.5% [4][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline consistent with June's figures. However, the month-on-month decline of 0.2% showed a narrowing compared to June [5][6] - Certain industries experienced improved supply-demand relationships, leading to positive price changes. For instance, the price of caustic soda rose by 3.6%, and the price of glass manufacturing saw a reduced decline of 0.9% compared to June [6][7] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors, with prices in the coal mining and washing industry, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showing reduced declines compared to the previous month [7][6] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that prices are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by effective policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, which will stimulate consumption and push up consumer goods prices [8] - The holiday effect is anticipated to stabilize or increase service prices, while the downward pressure from tailing factors on both CPI and PPI is expected to diminish [8]