2026.01. 09 本文字数：1575，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 随着扩内需促消费政策措施持续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI同比涨幅回升，核心 CPI涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。 国家统计局1月9日发布的数据显示，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣 除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。 来源：国家统计局 受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者 出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 食品价格拉动CPI 2025年12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟 分析，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。 12月份，食品价格同比上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加 约0.17个百分点。食品中，鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比 上月合计增加约0.16个百分点。 关于今年物价走势，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，随着扩内需等政策措施发力 ...

日子过得好不好，物价最有发言权。 临近年底，不少家庭开始盘算：2026年物价会涨还是跌？菜价、油价会不会反弹？手里的钱该怎么管，才能不被通胀"啃"掉？其实答案藏在最新的经济数据 里，3个关键信号已清晰显现，看懂了就能从容应对。 先给大家吃颗定心丸：专家普遍判断，2026年物价不会大幅暴涨，整体会呈现"低位温和回升"态势。民生银行首席经济学家温彬预测，明年CPI同比大概上 涨0.8%左右；也有专家更乐观，认为不排除升至2.0%的可能，但都属于合理区间。 信号一：CPI同比涨幅扩大，核心消费在回暖 今年推进的"反内卷"政策，对物价稳定发挥了关键作用。重点行业产能治理加快，市场竞争秩序更规范，像新能源车、光伏设备等行业的低价无序竞争得到 遏制，价格降幅明显收窄。 随着政策持续深入，明年相关行业价格会更趋合理。同时，扩内需、促消费政策会接续发力，消费潜力释放会进一步夯实物价回升的基础，不会出现通缩或 通胀失控的情况。 知道了走势，普通家庭该怎么应对？记住这3点就够了。 第一，日常采购：理性囤货，避开季节性波动 鲜菜、鲜果价格容易受天气影响，季节性波动大。可以根据家庭需求，适当储备耐储存的蔬菜、水果，但别盲目囤积。猪肉 ...

物价走势是观察经济运行的重要窗口。国家统计局最新发布的价格数据显示，11月份，居民消费价格指 数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比10月份扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高；扣除食品和能源 价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上 涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨……温和上扬的价格曲线，折射出供需两端的同步改善，彰显经济韧性与潜 力。 但也要认识到，当前外部不确定性因素依然较多，国内有效需求不足仍是主要矛盾，价格总体仍在低位 运行。因此，下一步，要促进供给和需求良性互动，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，优化市场竞争环 境，推进重点行业产能治理，改善供求关系，促进价格水平合理回升。 在笔者看来，物价回暖并非偶然，而是政策组合拳精准有力、新动能不断发展壮大等多维度突破换来 的"水到渠成"。 （文章来源：证券日报） 具体来看，今年以来，提振消费专项行动持续显效，消费需求焕新提升，"悦己型""健康型"需求持续增 长，带动工艺美术、运动球类、营养食品等细分工业品价格稳步抬升，11月份前述三类工业品价格分别 同比上涨20.6%、4.3%、1.1%。此外，综合 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article presents a dual perspective on the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on both financial conditions ("who holds the deposits") and economic realities ("spring water flows to the midstream") [3][4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for awakening the investment value of the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [6][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [15] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, between 0% and 1%, with a neutral expectation of around 1% [16] - Consumption is anticipated to align with nominal GDP growth, while exports are expected to show resilience with a growth rate of around 5% [16][18] - The fiscal budget expenditure growth rate is likely to be set at around 5%, with an increase in government debt expected [17][18] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, but its investment significance may be limited [19][20] - PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to show an upward trend, with the potential for a positive turnaround depending on economic conditions in the first half of 2026 [21][22] - Housing prices remain uncertain, with a focus on the relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields as a potential indicator for price stabilization [23][24][27] Midstream Economic Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to outperform in the next 3-6 months, with notable changes in profit margins for midstream companies, particularly in overseas markets [30][34] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream sector are shifting, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition benefiting this segment [35][36] - The midstream sector is seen as having strong potential due to its differentiation from upstream and downstream sectors, which are currently facing challenges [39][40] Financial Conditions and Deposit Distribution - The distribution of deposits will significantly influence market valuations and investment styles in 2026 [47][48] - M2 growth is expected to decline, impacting stock market valuations and the relative performance of different market segments [48][49] - The transfer of deposits from residents to enterprises or non-bank financial institutions will be crucial for driving economic activity and stock market engagement [52][53][60] Investment Insights and Conclusions - The article emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the stock market, with a focus on safety margins and profit improvements [50][51] - The potential for a bull market in stocks is acknowledged, but the pace of growth may slow compared to previous years [87] - The article suggests that the investment landscape will require careful monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments to identify key turning points [51][88]

来源：一瑜中的 报告目录 | 一、看短期:中游景气度或更胜一筹 | | --- | | (一)关注中游:已出现若干"新"变化 . | | (二)思考中游:宏观景气度或更胜一筹 . | | 1、景气观察 1: 静态看,潜力与表现均更优 …………………………………………………………………… 16 | | 2、景气观察 2:动态看,机电出口或高增长 | | (三)分析中游:微观 ROE 或继续回升 . | | 1、思考框架:ROE 的核心在哪? | | 2、思考焦点:供需两侧的预测!……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19 | | 二、看中期: 聚焦存款分布与物价走势 . | | (一)聚焦存款:花落谁家?谈三部门存款交互框架 | | 1、2025 存款在哪?重视两个交互 . | | 2、2026 存款去哪?提示三个变化 . | | (二)聚焦物价:何时转正?谈三物价趋势判断框架 | | 1、CPI:趋势确定,时点已至 | | 2、PPI:趋势确定,时点难定 | | 3、房价:或低位震荡,仍待加力 | | 三、看长期:转型之路的合理"靠 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of "stocks and bonds sharing the same origin" is increasing, and they are likely to be in sync with the nominal growth rate [22][34]. - The focus of the "same origin" lies in price elasticity and the impact of price changes on the stock and bond markets, with policy and market attention centered on demand - led non - food prices [38][47]. - The "anti - involution" policy is an important arrangement in the future, with clear long - term and short - term goals and implementation paths [60][61]. Summary by Directory "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a slight "seesaw" pattern between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds was around 0.2%, and the stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8]. - The reason for the "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have different driving factors. In 2025, the bond market's main line was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including policy and economic expectations [9][11][12]. Increasing Probability of "Stock - Bond Homology" - A stock bull market requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to be in a period where EPS needs to take over. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22]. - In the past year or so, the main factor determining the rise and fall of long - term interest rates has been the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32]. - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamentals, the probability of stock - bond homology increases, and they are homologous to the nominal growth rate [34]. Focus of "Homology" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which are crucial for the stock market, and whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38]. - Policy and the market pay more attention to demand - led prices, especially non - food prices or core CPI. When food and non - food prices move in the same direction, the situation is clear; when they move in opposite directions, in - depth structural analysis is needed [47]. - Under neutral assumptions, there is a chance to get out of deflation, but the risk lies in whether the month - on - month can reach the neutral level of recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 situation [50][51]. - The "anti - involution" policy is very important. In the short term, the implementation path is still under observation, while in the long term, the goals and implementation paths are clear. International experiences from the US and Japan can be used for reference, and in the short term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins [60][61][66].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, marking the highest value since February of this year, with a seasonal level higher than the previous two years [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [1][8] - Gold prices significantly impacted both CPI and PPI, with domestic gold futures prices increasing by 52.8% year-on-year, a substantial rise of 9.5 percentage points compared to September [2][12] Group 2: Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [2][16] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, the highest since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2][9] - The increase in core CPI was primarily driven by gold prices, with other goods and services related to gold also showing a significant year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2][12] Group 3: PPI and Industry Performance - The PPI for October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with notable performance in the non-ferrous industry, where prices increased by 5.3% and 2.4% for mining and metal processing, respectively [3][21] - The narrowing decline in PPI was attributed to ongoing capacity management and increased demand for coal mining and washing, with a reduction in the decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][21] - Life goods PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][21] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The rise in prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the increase in gold prices and weather-related impacts on vegetable prices, leading to an unexpected overall price increase [4][23] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to manage risks while benefiting from potential interest rate declines [4][25] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [4][25]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has turned from a decline to an increase year-on-year, with the core CPI rising for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a positive shift in domestic demand [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown its first month-on-month increase this year, signaling improvements in the upstream production sector [1][4] CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, and turned from a 0.3% decline to a 0.2% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for six months [1][2] - Key contributors to the CPI increase include rising prices in food, services, and industrial consumer goods [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in October, marking its first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [1][4] - Factors such as improved market supply-demand relationships and price recoveries in key industries contributed to the PPI's positive change [4] Sector-Specific Insights - Service prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with industrial consumer goods prices increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year [2][3] - The jewelry sector saw significant price increases, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 50.3% and 46.1% year-on-year, respectively [2] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI is likely to continue rising, while the PPI's year-on-year decline is expected to narrow further, with potential for positive growth in the first half of next year [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the price index remained under pressure, with CPI and PPI year-on-year in negative territory for two consecutive months. The CPI was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, while the core CPI continued to grow steadily. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month remained flat [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [1]. - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI was -0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 pct from the previous month, and +0.1% month-on-month, up 0.1 pct from the previous month. The core CPI year-on-year increase expanded to 1.0% for five consecutive months, possibly affected by consumption promotion policies and the rise in gold prices [1]. - Food prices have been negative year-on-year for eight consecutive months. In September 2025, food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, dragging down the CPI year-on-year by about -0.77 pct. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months [1]. - In Q4, food price declines may ease due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the performance of household goods and services prices may continue to be excellent [1]. PPI Analysis - In September, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%, up 0.6 pct from the previous month, and the month-on-month remained flat. The narrowing of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the improvement in the prices of some domestic energy and raw material industries and the influence of international commodity price fluctuations [1]. - Policy-driven market environment improvement and industrial upgrading are the core supports for PPI stabilization, but the policy effect is weakening marginally. In Q4, the year-on-year decline of production material prices may continue to narrow, but it is difficult to turn positive year-on-year [1]. Economic Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the economy may face downward pressure. Consumption and exports may be under pressure, and the external environment is complex. The possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future increases [1]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. - It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted a series of key policy signals, indicating a flexible adjustment of monetary policy amid low inflation and marginal improvements in macroeconomic indicators [1][3]. Economic Situation - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers. Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low inflation, China's economy is showing signs of stability and improvement [3][4]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to July [3][4]. Monetary Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on utilizing existing resources effectively rather than introducing new measures. This shift indicates confidence in the effectiveness of previously implemented policies [6][7]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, promoting economic stability and maintaining reasonable price levels through better coordination with fiscal policy [6][7]. Future Expectations - There is a possibility of new growth-stabilizing policies in the fourth quarter, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate consumption and investment [7][9]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be prioritized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [8][9]. Bond Market Insights - The meeting reiterated the importance of monitoring long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to 1.8%. The PBOC is cautious about large-scale government bond purchases, preferring to manage liquidity and utilize existing policy tools [9][10]. - The potential for resuming government bond purchases will depend on market conditions and external economic influences, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations and guiding interest rates downward [10][11].