Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US and Japan, highlighting significant trends in housing sales, employment, and inflation [2][10] - It emphasizes the mixed signals in the US economy, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [2][4] Group 1: Important Data Review - US January existing home sales fell significantly, with an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, down 8.4% month-over-month, against an expectation of a 4.15 million unit decline [12] - The US non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 65,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year [12] - Japan's Prime Minister announced plans to implement tax cuts, including a proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food and beverages for two years, potentially reducing tax revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen annually [13] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) rose to 2.70% for the week ending February 7, up from 2.21% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [15] - Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) also increased to 0.10% for the week ending February 8, compared to 0.02% the prior week [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.5% year-over-year for the week ending February 6, down from 6.7% the previous week [18] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, down from 6.11% the previous week [23] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with 26,000 jobs added over the four weeks ending January 24, up from 20,000 the previous week [28] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000 for the week ending February 7, down from 232,000 the previous week [31] - The number of job vacancies fell, with the Indeed job vacancy index averaging 103.5, down from 104.2 in December [36] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 306.54, down 1.0% week-over-week and 4.2% over the past two weeks [6] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.77 per gallon, up 0.8% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.537, down from 0.755 the previous week [46] - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -20.1909 basis points, down from -17.9347 basis points the previous week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan [52]

Economic Data and Events - The US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated [2][14] - In the Eurozone, January manufacturing PMI showed a greater rebound than the initial value, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations; inflation met expectations and remained stable compared to the previous value [2][14] - Japan's manufacturing and services PMI both improved in January [2][14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key focus on the US non-farm payroll report for January to be released on February 11 and the US CPI data for January to be released on February 13 [3][16] Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, down from 2.49% the previous week [4][18] - Germany's economic activity index returned to positive territory, with the WAI index at 0.1% for the week ending February 1, compared to -0.01% the previous week [5][18] Demand - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate showed fluctuations, with a reading of 6.7% for the week ending January 30, down from 7.1% the previous week [6][21] - The US mortgage rate stabilized, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.11% on February 5, slightly up from 6.10% the previous week; mortgage applications fell, with the MBA market composite index at 330.8, down 8.9% week-on-week [6][24] Employment - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week; continuing claims increased from 1.819 million to 1.844 million for the week ending January 24 [7][27] - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 103.9 as of January 30, slightly lower than the December average of 104.2 [8][29] Prices - Commodity prices experienced a significant pullback, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% week-on-week as of February 6 [9][34] - US gasoline prices stabilized at $2.75 per gallon for the week ending February 2, showing no change from the previous week [9][36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed signs of recovery, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.755 on February 6, up from 0.539 the previous day [10][39] - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with narrow fluctuations in swap basis [11][41] - High-yield dollar bond spreads widened but showed signs of recent recovery, with the spread-to-worst for JPMorgan's global BB-B rated dollar bonds at 256.3 basis points [11][43] - The yield spread between US and Japanese bonds narrowed, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened [11][46] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $784.5 billion [12][49][52]

Economic Data and Events - US manufacturing and services PMI, along with consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated[2] - Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected rebound, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations[2] - Japan's January manufacturing and services PMI both improved[2] Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index stood at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, with a four-week moving average of 2.32%[4] - Germany's WAI index returned to positive territory at 0.1%, with a four-week moving average of 0%[4] Demand Indicators - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth was 6.7%, with a four-week moving average of 6.25%[5] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US stabilized at 6.11%, with mortgage applications declining by 8.9% week-on-week[5] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, up from 209,000 the previous week[6] - The INDEED job vacancy index was 103.9, slightly down by 0.5% from the previous week[7] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 3.3% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.75 per gallon[8] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US was 0.755, recovering from 0.539 the previous day[9] - The Eurozone's Financial Conditions Index increased to 1.714 from 1.533 the previous week[9] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, US federal spending was approximately $784.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8%[10]

市场最初的核心疑虑在于，缩表通常伴随流动性回收，在弱化前瞻指引并强调通胀稳定的背景下，可能 推升风险溢价与期限溢价，从而压制股票估值，并放大跨资产价格波动，尤其对高杠杆或现金流兑现周 期较长的资产更为不利。 但宏观策略师 Michael Ball 指出，沃什的政策框架并非缺乏缓冲空间。其一， 沃什对央行过度干预金融体系的警惕，与财政部长贝森特强调提升财政政策可预测性的立场高度契合， 为货币与财政在操作层面形成非正式协同创造了条件。在"沃什—贝森特"组合下，若美联储缩表节奏能 够与财政部稳定、可预期的国债发行安排相协调，市场对流动性路径与供给节奏的认知将明显改善。在 政策预期具备可信度的前提下，金融条件并不必然因缩表而出现意外收紧，利率市场所承受的被动冲击 也有望受到约束。 在上述框架下，沃什偏向降低利率的立场，可能为收益率曲线前端提供一定支撑；而从中长期角度观 察，若国债供给预期保持稳定、期限溢价受到抑制，长端利率的波动反而存在下降空间。 此外，沃什 主张弱化美联储在金融体系中的"主导性角色"，将部分责任重新交由财政与监管体系承担。这意味着， 对银行准备金及高质量流动性资产的严格约束存在调整余地。Ball 认 ...

Economic Growth - In January, the US manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 51.9, while the services PMI remained flat at 52.5, both slightly below expectations[2] - The Q3 GDP growth rate was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, exceeding the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an upward revision in intellectual property and a narrowing drag from net exports[2] - Real personal spending in November remained flat at 0.3%, with the Redbook retail index showing high year-on-year growth in December and January[2] Financial Conditions - Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index eased by 10 basis points in January, driven by a weaker dollar, narrowing credit spreads, and rising US stock prices[3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4% in January, while corporate credit spreads narrowed by 5 basis points to 0.96%[3] - The US dollar index fell by 1.2% to 97.1 as of January 30[3] Inflation - The December core CPI increased by 0.2%, which was below expectations, with a marginal rise of 0.16 percentage points from November[4] - Inflation expectations rose in January, with 2-year and 10-year TIPS inflation expectations increasing by 54 basis points and 9 basis points to 2.84% and 2.34%, respectively[4] Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1% to 62.4%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month[5] - Job openings showed signs of improvement, with a notable decrease in WARN notices indicating layoffs in December[5] Risks - There are concerns regarding the speed of weakening in the US labor market and the potential for liquidity tightening to be less than expected[6]

报告摘要 （一）本周和未来一周的海外重要经济数据 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 核心观点 高频来看，美国初请失业金人数仍处于低位，海外大宗商品价格大幅上涨但周五明显回调，美国汽油零售 价持续反弹，美国信用利差有所扩大。经济数据方面，美国去年12月PPI环比超预期，欧元区四季度GDP好 于预期，日本1月东京CPI低于预期。关注即将公布：美国1月ISM制造业（2/2）、1月非农数据（2/2）、2 月密歇根消费者信心指数（2/6），欧元区1月CPI（2/4）、欧央行利率决议（2/5）。 1 月 26 日 -30 日当周，美国： 去年 11 月耐用品订单环比初值好于预期，去年 12 月 PPI 环比超预期， 1 月世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数低于预期， 1 月 MNI 芝加哥 PMI 好于预期。 欧元区 ：去年 4 季 度 GDP 好于预期，去年 12 月失业率好于预期。 日本 ： 去年 12 月工业产值好于预期， 1 月东京 CPI 低 于预期，去年 12 月失业率符合预期，去年 12 月零售环比低于预期。 2 月 2 日 ...

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting mixed signals in employment, inflation, and consumer confidence [2][5][15] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators such as the ADP employment numbers, JOLTs job openings, and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs to gauge economic health [5][15] - The article notes that while US consumer confidence has reached a four-month high, employment figures have shown signs of weakness, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [5][15] Group 1: Important Data Review - US December ADP employment numbers were below expectations, with a growth of 41,000 jobs compared to an expected 50,000 [15] - The US trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in October, significantly lower than the expected $58.5 billion [15] - The ISM services PMI rose to 54.4 in December, exceeding expectations, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, indicating continued contraction [15] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.13% for the week ending January 3, down from 2.49% the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [19] - The German WAI index increased to 0.07% for the week ending January 4, up from 0.05% the previous week, suggesting a slight improvement in economic conditions [19] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate decreased to 7.1% for the week ending January 3, down from 7.6% the previous week [23] - The US mortgage rates increased slightly to 6.16% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, while mortgage applications rose, with the MBA market composite index reaching 270.8, a 0.3% increase from the previous week [26][27] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment numbers showed a decline, with a four-week cumulative increase of 46,000 jobs, down from 70,000 the previous week [32] - Initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, up from 200,000 the previous week [33] - The INDEED job vacancy index increased to a weekly average of 104.8, indicating a rise in job openings [36] Group 5: Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 301.47, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the previous week [42] - US gasoline retail prices fell to $2.68 per gallon, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone remain loose, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.863 from 0.795 the previous week [47] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated [49] - The 10-year US-EU government bond yield spread widened to 126.8 basis points, up from 121.5 basis points the previous week [52]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. employment indicators are stabilizing at low levels, with various metrics showing signs of steadiness in the labor market [2]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - Multiple economic data points from the U.S. exceeded expectations, including Q3 GDP growth rate, personal consumption, industrial output growth for November, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December. However, consumer confidence and durable goods orders growth fell short of expectations [4][18]. - In the Eurozone, Spain's November PPI decreased compared to the previous value, while Italy's November PPI increased [5][18]. - Japan's inflation and industrial output were below expectations [5][18]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December, scheduled for release on January 2, and the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for December, also set for January 2 [6][20]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index showed a slight rebound, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week ending December 20, compared to 2.31% the previous week [7][22]. - Germany's economic activity index also trended upward, reaching 0.14% for the week ending December 21 [7][22]. Group 4: Demand - U.S. retail sales growth, as measured by the Redbook index, increased year-on-year to 7.2% for the week ending December 19, up from 6.2% the previous week [8][28]. - Mortgage rates in the U.S. remained stable, with a slight decline in mortgage applications [9][30]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment figures showed stabilization at low levels, with approximately 46,000 new jobs added in the four weeks ending December 9, down from 70,000 the previous week [9][35]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, better than expected, while continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, exceeding expectations [10][38]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 104.66 as of December 12, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week [11][41]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week as of December 26, following a decline of 1.1% the previous week [12][46]. - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.72 per gallon for the week ending December 22, down 1.9% from the previous week [12][46]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved, while U.S. financial conditions remained stable at high levels [13][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.1 pips, improving from -25.8 pips the previous week [13][51]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds remained stable at 265.3 basis points as of December 26 [13][54]. - U.S. and Japanese long-term government bond spreads remained stable, with the 10-year U.S.-Japan bond spread at 214.1 basis points [13][57]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of December 24, cumulative federal spending in the U.S. for the year was approximately $7.66 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [15][62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that new growth clues may compensate for financial conditions, with potential changes in asset pricing by 2026 due to various factors including the US dollar index, global interest rate conditions, and domestic interest rate changes [1][2][4] - The US mid-term elections may lead to temporary fiscal support for consumer spending, potentially boosting economic growth [2] - A potential easing of geopolitical tensions in Europe could serve as a significant short-term economic growth driver [3] - China's economic recovery efforts, including stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing consumption rates, present substantial growth opportunities [4] Group 2 - Recent macro data reinforces expectations for US interest rate cuts in the coming year, with notable market reactions across stocks, bonds, and currencies [5] - The US stock market shows significant differentiation, particularly among technology stocks, while European markets generally rise and Japanese markets decline following interest rate hikes [6] - Commodity pricing reflects a combination of forward-looking US interest rate expectations and current supply disruptions, with notable strength in silver and copper prices [7][8] Group 3 - The US Treasury yields are generally declining, with a steepening yield curve, while European and Japanese bond markets face selling pressure [9] - The US dollar initially weakened but rebounded, impacting currency trading dynamics, particularly with the Japanese yen [10] - A-shares are experiencing a resurgence in trading speed, with non-tech sectors showing significant performance advantages [12] Group 4 - The cultural, tourism, and health industries in China are experiencing rapid growth, with notable increases in sales revenue across various segments [27][28] - The silver economy is projected to reach approximately 7 trillion yuan by 2024, indicating a growing market for elder care and related services [30]

Group 1 - The global financial market is transitioning from an event-driven state to a phase of reassessing existing pricing and consensus confirmation following significant macroeconomic events [1] - Market focus is shifting from "whether to take action" to "whether the policy stance remains restrained" regarding the Federal Reserve, with any statements on inflation resilience or policy patience likely to be magnified by the market [2] - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment continues to impact the market, with attention on whether the subsequent reactions, such as yen volatility and interest rate changes, will persist [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to exhibit a differentiated performance, with risk assets oscillating between emotional recovery and year-end caution, lacking new variables to drive sustained strength [3] - The foreign exchange market may enter a phase of range trading, with volatility stemming more from capital flows and position adjustments rather than a macro directional shift [3] - Overall, the market is in a rebalancing phase post-major events, with macro uncertainty persisting but the driving forces shifting towards expectation digestion and capital behavior [3]