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【公募基金】关税扰动加剧,基金组合如何应对?——基金配置策略报告(2025年4月期)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-09 11:27
Market Overview - In March 2025, the equity market experienced fluctuations, initially rising before declining, while the bond market was affected by tight liquidity, showing a clear stock-bond seesaw effect. The performance of various indices included a 0.43% increase in the Wind Active Equity Fund Index, a 0.18% decrease in the Wind Stock Fund Index, and a 0.18% increase in the Wind Mixed Fund Index. The Wind Bond Fund Index recorded a positive return of 0.10%, with the Wind Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Fund Index slightly up by 0.11% and the Wind Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index up by 0.22%. Convertible bond valuations compressed, leading to a 0.74% decline in the convertible bond fund index. The Wind QDII Fund Index fell by 1.54%, while the Wind Alternative Investment Fund Index rose by 4.44% [1]. Equity Allocation Strategy - During the earnings disclosure period from mid-March to late April, a notable style reversal is expected, favoring value, large-cap, and low-valuation styles. Excess returns from profitability factors are anticipated to emerge, with a potential shift back to small-cap tech growth likely not occurring until late April. Given the high tariffs imposed by the US and China, small-cap companies with high valuations and leverage face significant risks. In contrast, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as domestic consumption and high-dividend stocks, may perform relatively better. Three focus areas include: (1) Competitiveness affected by tariffs, (2) Domestic demand-driven competitiveness, and (3) Scarce assets generating stable cash flow [2]. Fixed Income Allocation Strategy - For pure bond funds, despite current interest rates being relatively low, external disturbances and uncertain domestic fundamentals may hinder a downward trend in bond market rates. The short-term adjustment will depend on the central bank's stance and policies, with potential market volatility. However, in the long term, the bond market is expected to experience a bear-short and bull-long trend, making mid to long-term bonds attractive for allocation. The strategy involves maintaining a cautious approach with relatively high liquidity duration holdings while considering extending the portfolio duration. For fixed income plus funds, strategies are divided into low, medium, and high volatility categories, with a preference for high-grade credit bonds and some interest rate bond trading. Given the current external tariff disturbances and earnings disclosure impacts on market risk appetite, it is advisable to reduce portfolio positions and shift from equity-enhanced to convertible bond-enhanced allocations, while adjusting the structure to increase stable styles like dividends and large-cap quality, and reducing exposure to tech growth and small-cap stocks [3].