基金配置策略
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【公募基金】静待春季行情,延续均衡配置——基金配置策略报告(2025年12月期)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-12-10 09:52
Market Overview - In November 2025, the equity market experienced an overall decline, while the bond market saw a slight retreat. The A-share market fell, with only large-cap value stocks rising, and sectors like finance and consumer showing relative resilience, while the previously high-performing technology sector faced significant declines [3][7] - The textile, oil and petrochemical, and banking sectors led gains with increases of 3.53%, 3.19%, and 3.16% respectively, while the electronics, automotive, and computer sectors recorded declines of -4.87%, -5.61%, and -5.64% respectively [7] - The bond market faced slight fluctuations due to the failure of interest rate cut expectations and stock market adjustments, leading to redemption pressures on fixed income products [8] Equity Fund Strategy - The current market lacks clear catalysts, and trading sentiment has cooled, with indices facing volatility pressure at high levels. The recommended strategy is to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on emerging technology and high-end equipment manufacturing assets, while also considering cyclical sectors with potential for marginal improvement [3][13] - The focus on artificial intelligence (AI) investments remains strong, with concerns about potential bubbles being countered by robust capital expenditure plans from major tech companies [13] - Cyclical sectors are highlighted for their reasonable valuations and positive outlooks for next year, with potential price volatility expected if demand improves during a rate-cutting cycle [14] Bond Fund Strategy - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern into December, with year-end profit-taking by institutions and political signals contributing to a cautious market outlook. The strategy suggests waiting for better allocation opportunities while maintaining a controlled duration in bond portfolios [4][20] - The pure bond fund strategy aims to provide stable returns with a focus on risk management, while the fixed income plus strategy seeks to balance steady income with some equity exposure for potential growth [26][27] Fund Performance Review - Since the construction of the active equity fund selection index on May 11, 2023, it has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.4027, outperforming the active equity fund index by 18.62% [16] - The short-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0451 since its inception on December 12, 2023, with an excess return of 0.5864% over its benchmark [21] - The medium-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0661, outperforming its benchmark by 0.3465% since its construction [23]
【公募基金】兼顾成长弹性与稳健防御,把握结构性机会——基金配置策略报告(2025年6月期)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-06-10 09:27
Key Points - The article discusses the recovery of equity market sentiment and the fluctuating bond market in May 2025, influenced by the US-China tariff agreement and monetary policy adjustments [2][5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing growth and defensive strategies in investment portfolios, highlighting the need to capture structural opportunities while being cautious of external disturbances and domestic economic data fluctuations [2][14] - The performance of various fund styles is analyzed, showing that value and balanced styles outperformed growth styles in May 2025, with significant movements in sector-specific funds, particularly in healthcare and military themes [9][10][11] Equity Market Overview - In May 2025, the equity market experienced a "rise, fall, and stabilization" pattern, with major indices showing gains due to supportive monetary policies and the US-China tariff agreement [6][7] - The overall trading volume decreased, indicating a lower risk appetite among investors, with small-cap stocks seeing increased activity [11][12] Bond Market Overview - The bond market exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations, with government bond issuance and tariff negotiations impacting interest rates [8][18] - The yields on 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year government bonds changed slightly, reflecting the market's response to monetary policy and external factors [18][26] Fund Performance Review - The article reviews the performance of public funds, noting that all major equity fund indices recorded gains, with the Wande Stock Index and Wande Ordinary Stock Index leading with increases of 1.59% and 1.23%, respectively [7][8] - The article highlights the performance of thematic funds, particularly in healthcare and military sectors, which saw significant gains due to market dynamics and geopolitical events [10][11] Fund Strategy Insights - The article outlines strategies for equity and fixed-income fund allocations, suggesting a focus on growth and defensive sectors while maintaining a balanced approach [2][3][14] - It discusses the construction of various fund indices, including low, medium, and high volatility fixed-income funds, aimed at providing stable returns while managing risks [19][28][30]
【公募基金】关税扰动加剧,基金组合如何应对?——基金配置策略报告(2025年4月期)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-09 11:27
Market Overview - In March 2025, the equity market experienced fluctuations, initially rising before declining, while the bond market was affected by tight liquidity, showing a clear stock-bond seesaw effect. The performance of various indices included a 0.43% increase in the Wind Active Equity Fund Index, a 0.18% decrease in the Wind Stock Fund Index, and a 0.18% increase in the Wind Mixed Fund Index. The Wind Bond Fund Index recorded a positive return of 0.10%, with the Wind Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Fund Index slightly up by 0.11% and the Wind Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index up by 0.22%. Convertible bond valuations compressed, leading to a 0.74% decline in the convertible bond fund index. The Wind QDII Fund Index fell by 1.54%, while the Wind Alternative Investment Fund Index rose by 4.44% [1]. Equity Allocation Strategy - During the earnings disclosure period from mid-March to late April, a notable style reversal is expected, favoring value, large-cap, and low-valuation styles. Excess returns from profitability factors are anticipated to emerge, with a potential shift back to small-cap tech growth likely not occurring until late April. Given the high tariffs imposed by the US and China, small-cap companies with high valuations and leverage face significant risks. In contrast, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as domestic consumption and high-dividend stocks, may perform relatively better. Three focus areas include: (1) Competitiveness affected by tariffs, (2) Domestic demand-driven competitiveness, and (3) Scarce assets generating stable cash flow [2]. Fixed Income Allocation Strategy - For pure bond funds, despite current interest rates being relatively low, external disturbances and uncertain domestic fundamentals may hinder a downward trend in bond market rates. The short-term adjustment will depend on the central bank's stance and policies, with potential market volatility. However, in the long term, the bond market is expected to experience a bear-short and bull-long trend, making mid to long-term bonds attractive for allocation. The strategy involves maintaining a cautious approach with relatively high liquidity duration holdings while considering extending the portfolio duration. For fixed income plus funds, strategies are divided into low, medium, and high volatility categories, with a preference for high-grade credit bonds and some interest rate bond trading. Given the current external tariff disturbances and earnings disclosure impacts on market risk appetite, it is advisable to reduce portfolio positions and shift from equity-enhanced to convertible bond-enhanced allocations, while adjusting the structure to increase stable styles like dividends and large-cap quality, and reducing exposure to tech growth and small-cap stocks [3].