分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 近期市场回顾： 2025年11月，权益市场整体下行，债券市场小幅回落。权益市场方面，A股市场整体回落，仅 大盘价值收涨，金融、消费风格相对抗跌，跌幅较小，前期涨幅较大的科技板块估值处于历史较高水平，跌幅 明显。债券市场方面，债市小幅震荡，主要系降息预期落空的影响，叠加股市调整导致固收+产品面临赎回压 力。 果基于对应模型计算，需警惕模型失效的风险，仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。 01 近期公募基金业绩表现回顾 2025年11月，权益市场整体下行，债券市场小幅回落。 权益市场方面，11月A股市场整体回落，仅大盘价值收涨，金融、消费风格相对抗跌，跌幅较 小，前期涨幅较大的科技板块估值处于历史较高水平，跌幅明显。分行业而言，纺织服装、石油 石化、银行涨幅靠前，分别为3.53%、3.19%、3.16%，电子、汽车、计算机跌幅相对较深，分别 录得-4.87%、-5.61%、-5.64%。具体来看，11月中上旬，美联储降息预期降温引发市场波动，叠 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recovery of equity market sentiment and the fluctuating bond market in May 2025, influenced by the US-China tariff agreement and monetary policy adjustments [2][5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing growth and defensive strategies in investment portfolios, highlighting the need to capture structural opportunities while being cautious of external disturbances and domestic economic data fluctuations [2][14] - The performance of various fund styles is analyzed, showing that value and balanced styles outperformed growth styles in May 2025, with significant movements in sector-specific funds, particularly in healthcare and military themes [9][10][11] Equity Market Overview - In May 2025, the equity market experienced a "rise, fall, and stabilization" pattern, with major indices showing gains due to supportive monetary policies and the US-China tariff agreement [6][7] - The overall trading volume decreased, indicating a lower risk appetite among investors, with small-cap stocks seeing increased activity [11][12] Bond Market Overview - The bond market exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations, with government bond issuance and tariff negotiations impacting interest rates [8][18] - The yields on 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year government bonds changed slightly, reflecting the market's response to monetary policy and external factors [18][26] Fund Performance Review - The article reviews the performance of public funds, noting that all major equity fund indices recorded gains, with the Wande Stock Index and Wande Ordinary Stock Index leading with increases of 1.59% and 1.23%, respectively [7][8] - The article highlights the performance of thematic funds, particularly in healthcare and military sectors, which saw significant gains due to market dynamics and geopolitical events [10][11] Fund Strategy Insights - The article outlines strategies for equity and fixed-income fund allocations, suggesting a focus on growth and defensive sectors while maintaining a balanced approach [2][3][14] - It discusses the construction of various fund indices, including low, medium, and high volatility fixed-income funds, aimed at providing stable returns while managing risks [19][28][30]

Market Overview - In March 2025, the equity market experienced fluctuations, initially rising before declining, while the bond market was affected by tight liquidity, showing a clear stock-bond seesaw effect. The performance of various indices included a 0.43% increase in the Wind Active Equity Fund Index, a 0.18% decrease in the Wind Stock Fund Index, and a 0.18% increase in the Wind Mixed Fund Index. The Wind Bond Fund Index recorded a positive return of 0.10%, with the Wind Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Fund Index slightly up by 0.11% and the Wind Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index up by 0.22%. Convertible bond valuations compressed, leading to a 0.74% decline in the convertible bond fund index. The Wind QDII Fund Index fell by 1.54%, while the Wind Alternative Investment Fund Index rose by 4.44% [1]. Equity Allocation Strategy - During the earnings disclosure period from mid-March to late April, a notable style reversal is expected, favoring value, large-cap, and low-valuation styles. Excess returns from profitability factors are anticipated to emerge, with a potential shift back to small-cap tech growth likely not occurring until late April. Given the high tariffs imposed by the US and China, small-cap companies with high valuations and leverage face significant risks. In contrast, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as domestic consumption and high-dividend stocks, may perform relatively better. Three focus areas include: (1) Competitiveness affected by tariffs, (2) Domestic demand-driven competitiveness, and (3) Scarce assets generating stable cash flow [2]. Fixed Income Allocation Strategy - For pure bond funds, despite current interest rates being relatively low, external disturbances and uncertain domestic fundamentals may hinder a downward trend in bond market rates. The short-term adjustment will depend on the central bank's stance and policies, with potential market volatility. However, in the long term, the bond market is expected to experience a bear-short and bull-long trend, making mid to long-term bonds attractive for allocation. The strategy involves maintaining a cautious approach with relatively high liquidity duration holdings while considering extending the portfolio duration. For fixed income plus funds, strategies are divided into low, medium, and high volatility categories, with a preference for high-grade credit bonds and some interest rate bond trading. Given the current external tariff disturbances and earnings disclosure impacts on market risk appetite, it is advisable to reduce portfolio positions and shift from equity-enhanced to convertible bond-enhanced allocations, while adjusting the structure to increase stable styles like dividends and large-cap quality, and reducing exposure to tech growth and small-cap stocks [3].