Core Viewpoint - The container shipping volume from mainland China to the U.S. has significantly decreased, with an 18% year-on-year drop in September, indicating a worsening trend compared to the 6% decline in August. This decline is attributed to uncertainties in tariff negotiations, leading some businesses to either expedite shipments or source products from countries outside of China [4]. Group 1: Container Shipping Volume Trends - The total container shipping volume from Asia to the U.S. in September was 1,696,044 TEUs, reflecting a 10% year-on-year decrease, marking the first decline below last year's figures in three months [2]. - The shipping volume from Southeast Asia and South Asia has shown continuous growth, with Vietnam's volume increasing by 19%, India by 2%, Malaysia by 86%, and Thailand experiencing a minimal decrease of 1% [4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Negotiations - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations has led to a stagnation in cargo transport, particularly during the typical peak season for U.S. retailers from July to September [4]. - Retailers have completed their import preparations ahead of the tariff implementation, resulting in a forecasted 12% decrease in U.S. container imports for October and a 19% decrease for November, as stated by the National Retail Federation [5]. Group 3: Product Category Analysis - The largest decline in shipping volume was observed in the furniture category, which decreased by 9%. Other consumer-related products, such as toys and sporting goods, saw a 20% drop, while electronic products and automotive-related goods decreased by 18% and 16%, respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of rare metals, particularly tungsten and gallium, have surged due to China's export restrictions, reaching their highest levels in 14 years, with tungsten prices up 45% and gallium prices up 44% compared to the beginning of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Impact - Tungsten's price has increased by approximately $150 per 10 kilograms, reaching around $477.5 as of July 22, 2023, while gallium's price has risen by about $250 per kilogram, reaching approximately $827.5 [4]. - The price surge is reminiscent of the 2011 price spikes, which were also influenced by China's export controls following geopolitical tensions [4]. - Japan's companies are responding to the rising tungsten prices by sourcing from other production countries, such as Vietnam, due to the increased costs [4][5]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - Starting from August 2023, gallium has become subject to China's export controls, with a complete halt in exports expected by May 2025 [5]. - Antimony, which China produces 60% of globally, will also face export restrictions starting September 2024, with a significant reduction in supply anticipated by June 2025 [6]. - China's export control measures are seen as a response to the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, with potential implications for other critical minerals [6]. Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Japan is urged to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals to mitigate business risks, emphasizing the need for government and corporate collaboration to secure alternative sources [7]. - There are discussions about the possibility of easing export controls on rare earths following recent U.S.-China negotiations, but the situation remains uncertain [6].