FICC日报 | 2026-03-06 中东线船舶调至欧线，3月下半月运价逐步修正 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11周价格1195/1910，WEEK12周报价1400/2240；HPL3月下半月 船期报价2685/4535，4月份上半月船期报价2985/5035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1580/2640，3月下半月船期报价1640/2740；ONE 3月上半月 船期报价1420/2235，3月下半月1750/2735，4月份船期价格1753/2741；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价 1333/2236。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份上半月船期报价1459/2493，3月份下半月船期报价3059/5293；EMC 3月 下半月船期报价2615/4030；OOCL 3月份下半月船期报价2280/4030. 地缘端：美国总统特朗普表示，在伊朗冲突平息之后，美国将把注意力转向古巴。"古巴的情况令人惊叹，我们希 望能够解决这个问题，"特朗普说道。"先解决伊朗再说吧。" ...

深圳市集装箱运输协会发出《关于维护行业平稳发展的倡议》 称，当前国际油价已飙升至每桶80—90美元区间，若局势持 续恶化，极有可能突破每桶100—120美元。 作者：张锐 封图：图虫创意 近日，随着美以军事行动的升级，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球能源运输的"咽喉要道"被迫 中断，国际油价应声上涨，全球航运市场面临严重冲击。作为全球供应链的重要一环，深圳市集装 箱运输行业也受到了影响。 3月4日，经济观察报记者从深圳市集装箱运输协会获悉，该会已向业内同行发出《关于维护行业 平稳发展的倡议》。倡议称，当前，国际油价已飙升至每桶80—90美元区间，若局势持续恶化， 极有可能突破每桶100—120美元。 二、加强信息共享，避免信息不对称。希望各企业间加强信息交流互通，减少因信息不对称引发的 恐慌性降价。同时，共享客户信用信息，共同抵制货主恶意拖欠运费等不良行为，营造诚信经营的 市场环境。 三、抵制违法违规行为，维护行业秩序。不参与商业贿赂、虚假宣传、恶意诋毁同行等不正当竞争 行为。 "燃油成本的急剧上升，叠加航线绕行、船期延误、运力紧张等多重压力，运输企业的经营成本将 大幅攀升。"深圳市集装箱运输协会方面表示，在此 ...

高盛分析认为，A股油轮板块及中远海运能源因绕行、补库及制裁解除预期成为最大潜在受益者，极端情景下日收益可增3 万美元；航空公司受燃油成本激增冲击，盈利下行风险居首。集运方面因绕行红海及港口拥堵，运费获得支撑。若海峡持 续封锁，布伦特油价峰值或冲破100美元。 霍尔木兹海峡局势骤然升级，A股交通运输板块的命运正在走向分叉。高盛研究团队评估认为，油轮板块及中远海运能源 有望成为此次地缘冲突的最大受益方，而航空公司因燃油成本敞口居板块之首，正面临各子行业中最大的盈利下行风 险。 美国总统特朗普当地时间3月1日发表视频讲话称，美国和以色列将继续对伊朗的军事行动，直到达成所有目标。媒体相 继报道霍尔木兹海峡宣告封锁，多艘油轮已开始绕行该海域。霍尔木兹海峡承载全球近40%的海上石油贸易运量，中国 是相关石油流向的最主要目的地，局势演变对全球能源供应链影响深远。 高盛中国交通运输研究团队于3月2日发布报告指出， 油轮板块及中远海运能源在其覆盖的交通运输股中拥有最大上行空 间。 在伊朗石油制裁被完全解除的极端情景下，约5%的航运需求将从影子船队转向合规船队，届时各类原油油轮每日 TCE（时租等值）有望增加约3万美元。油价上行 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨签 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 伊朗高势油运行情空中加油， 告船联动关注 ST 松发、招商锌 申万宏源交运一周天地汇(2026 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-27 PA联盟3月上半月运价修正，关注近期4月份涨价函是否发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1230/1960、WEEK12周价格1155/1830；HPL3月份上半月 船期报价1335/2235 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135. 静态供给：截至2026年1月31日。2026年至今交付集装箱船舶6艘，合计交付运力46950TEU。12000-16999TEU船舶 合计交付2艘，合计2.8万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付1艘，合计17148TEU。交付预期层面，12000-16999TEU 船舶：2026年剩余月份交付73.74万TEU（50艘），2027年交付94.46万TEU（64艘），2028年交付121.2万TEU（82 艘），2029年交付41.54万TEU（29艘）。 17000+TEU船舶： 2026年剩余月份交付19.29万TEU（8艘），2027年交付86.28万TEU（40艘），2028年交付160.3 万TEU（80艘）,2029年交付126.15万TEU（77艘）.总体 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-26 马士基3月第二周价格下调，关注其他船司3月份价格跟随情 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK11报价1210/1920、WEEK12周价格1150/1820；HPL3月份上半月 船期报价1535/2535 ，3月下半月船期报价1935/3135. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月份上半月船期报价1400/2340；ONE 3月上半月船期报价1940/3035，3月下半月 1940/3035；HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1783/3136。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份上半月船期报价1459/2593，3月份下半月船期报价2359/3193；EMC 3月 上半月船期报价1665/2530；OOCL 3月份上半月船期报价介于2380-2430. 地缘端：据以色列时报，监测开源飞行追踪数据的分析人士称，美军已开始向中东调动另外六架F-22隐形战斗机， 预计这六架F-22将部署在以色列空军一处基地，昨日已有另外11架F-22战机在那里降落。这六架F-22当天早些时 候从美国起飞，与随行加 ...

来源：港口圈 作者：何晓路 结果不那么令人意外，单以吞吐量论英雄，我国第一大港与外贸第一大港都是宁波舟山港，2025年，该 港完成外贸货物吞吐量6.61亿吨，外贸占比为46.1%，几乎是内外贸两条腿走路。第二、第三名则分别 是青岛港（5.33亿吨）与上海港（4.78亿吨）。 宁波舟山港的外贸吞吐量一方面来自集装箱，作为全球第三大集装箱港，截至2025年底，宁波舟山港集 装箱航线已达309条，连接全球200多个国家和地区的700多个港口，集装箱吞吐量距新加坡港仅79万标 箱；另一方面，宁波舟山港还是大宗散货方面的"全能选手"，是国内最大的铁矿石中转基地和原油转运 基地、国内重要的液体化工储运基地和华东地区重要的煤炭、粮食储运基地。宁波舟山港股份公司运营 着矿石、油品、煤炭、件杂货、滚装等专业泊位，应有尽有。知名的码头包括中国最大矿石中转码头鼠 浪湖码头，全国最大的45万吨级原油码头宁波实华原油码头等，定语有多长，宁波舟山港的实力就有多 强。 还有一些货主在宁波舟山港闷声大发财，如宝武集团旗下的马迹山港，位于舟山港区，曾是亚洲第一矿 石中转深水港，有2个深水泊位，可接卸40万吨级大船，年吞吐量在6000万吨左右。 ...

新春时节的胶州湾畔，海风涌起阵阵浪花，带着些许寒意。走进山东港口青岛港前湾集装箱码头，"温 度"却不相同：大型集装箱船接连靠离泊，桥吊、轨道吊高效作业，集装箱有序装卸，处处涌动着热 潮。 "浪再大，节奏不能乱。"张自晓的目光，始终落在前方船舶与海面的交汇处。"我们不断提高技能水平 与作业效率，只为保障每艘船舶安全、准时靠离。眼下，看这'你来我往'的势头，新一年，肯定更忙也 更旺。" 在青岛前湾联合集装箱码头自动化远控中心，宽敞明亮的室内，轨道吊远控司机安佰文正在专注作 业。"稳住，好，落！"安佰文紧盯屏幕，手握操控杆精细地推拉摇转，千米外码头堆场上，轨道吊同步 将集装箱稳稳抓起、精准移动，全程流畅连贯。"忙，是真忙。"趁着作业间隙，安佰文这才擦了擦额头 的细汗，稍微松了口气："今年以来，国内外订单不断，我们码头8000标准箱以上大船络绎不绝，开年 新增了4条集装箱航线，船舶更是一艘接一艘，箱量大幅增长。" "越忙越有奔头。港口忙，就说明咱们的经济发展在往前奔，我们干着也有劲头。"正说着，对讲机里传 来了新的指令，又一艘集装箱船舶准备靠港，即将装载电子元件、家居用品、特色农产品等前往泰国。 安佰文立刻坐直，目光 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - holding measures are implemented after the holiday. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. Shipping companies usually issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. As of now, it is still unclear whether the price increase in March will succeed. If the price increase is successful in early March, the valuation bottom of the EC2604 contract may rise. The long - term contracts face intense speculation on the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the shipping capacity in the first half of the year will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of February 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 54,481.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,518.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1258.90, 1566.10, 1632.00, 1131.10, and 1425.40 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1155.66 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600 TEU, 259,800 TEU, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300 TEU, 365,200 TEU, 304,700 TEU, 320,400 TEU, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity is 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500 TEU, 294,400 TEU, 263,500 TEU, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA Alliance, 6 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea route. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Multiple conditions need to be met for the resumption of the Red Sea route, including industry association assessment, insurance premium reduction, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance. Currently, the detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in the subsequent stage to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7]. V. Demand and European Economy No specific content related to demand and European economy is provided in the given text other than the figures mentioned in the catalog.

Group 1: Overview of Import and Export - The total import and export volume in China for 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, with imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (0.5% growth) and exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (6.1% growth) [1][2] - The growth rates for imports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 5.7%, 9.9%, and -3% respectively, with their respective shares being 40.08%, 31.84%, and 8.03% [2] - The growth rates for exports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 9%, 8%, and 1.7% respectively, with their respective shares being 61.02%, 25.12%, and 2.76% [2] Group 2: Cargo Throughput - The total cargo throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is expected to reach 11.634 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and foreign trade cargo throughput at 5.066 billion tons, growing by 4.7% [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for cargo throughput in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are 3.1%, 5.7%, 7.8%, 2.8%, 4.9%, and 2.2% respectively, with their respective shares being 12.45%, 18.84%, 5.22%, 6.98%, 15.27%, and 17.08% [2] Group 3: Container Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1122.15 points, down 20.7% year-on-year and 4.55% month-on-month, with specific routes like the East and West US and Europe showing declines of -26.71%, -29.74%, and -20.63% respectively [4] - The container throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is projected to be 31.198 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, and specific ports like Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen showing growth rates of 6.5%, 6.9%, 11.6%, and 6% respectively [4] Group 4: Liquid Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1691 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 87.26% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [5] - The crude oil import volume for 2025 is expected to reach 578 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, while the throughput at major crude oil receiving ports is projected to be 389 million tons, showing a decline of 3.4% [5][6] Group 5: Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1923 points, indicating a year-on-year increase of 135.95% and a month-on-month increase of 9.14% [7] - The iron ore throughput for 2025 is projected to be 1.399 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.39%, while coal throughput is expected to be 688 million tons, reflecting a decline of 1.07% [8]