1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the April contract is gradually becoming clear. The PA alliance is facing significant cargo - booking pressure, and it is necessary to monitor whether the OA alliance will follow suit in price cuts. The estimated settlement price of the 04 contract is around 1660 points if the Maersk price remains flat next week, and around 1630 points if it drops by $100/FEU [4]. - The price of the EC2605 contract in the second half of April is weak and may continue to decline. The shipping companies will try to support prices from May to August. The spot price of $3000 in May has been fully priced in, and the 5 - month contract will gradually enter the delivery logic after the April contract is settled [5]. - The contracts for June, July, and August are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the demand side from Asia to Europe [6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for different routes and time periods. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK15 quote is $1470/2360, and WEEK16 is $1390/2220. HPL has different quotes for different months' sailings [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply Analysis - Geopolitical: Trump will give a national speech on the Iranian issue on Thursday morning [2]. - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports varies from March to May. There are also TBNs and empty sailings in April and May [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2604 contract: The Maersk WEEK16 price continues to decline. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th. The estimated settlement price is affected by Maersk's price changes [4]. - EC2605 contract: The price in the second half of April is weak and may decline. The shipping companies will try to support prices from May to August. The 5 - month contract will enter the delivery logic after the April contract is settled [5]. - EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts: These contracts are expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption, small delivery pressure of large ships, and high demand growth [6]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Arbitrage: Long EC2606 and short EC2610 [9] 3.5 Market Data - As of March 31, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 35,422.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,052.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, and the SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [8].

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Core Viewpoint - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated due to the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a significant reduction in maritime traffic and the implementation of new shipping routes to mitigate risks [1][8][12]. Group 1: Shipping and Logistics Developments - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening severe repercussions for any vessels attempting to transit, particularly those associated with US and Israeli allies [1]. - Since the onset of the conflict, the number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait has plummeted by 95% compared to pre-conflict levels, with only 153 crossings recorded from March 1 to 25 [8][10]. - COSCO Shipping has resumed new booking services for certain Middle Eastern countries, utilizing a multi-modal transport approach that avoids direct passage through the Strait [4][5]. Group 2: Alternative Shipping Routes - COSCO Shipping plans to reroute cargo through land bridges and feeder shipping, connecting to ports outside the Strait, such as those on the eastern coast of the UAE [5]. - The newly established "safety corridor" allows some vessels to pass through the Strait, but the overall traffic remains low, with only 17 vessels reported to have used this route since its opening [10][12]. - Other shipping companies, like Yang Ming Marine Transport, are adjusting their operations in response to the heightened risks, delaying port calls and monitoring safety conditions closely [6][7]. Group 3: Market Impact and Demand - The ongoing conflict has led to a significant increase in shipping costs, with oil tanker rates rising over 50% compared to pre-conflict levels due to supply chain disruptions [10][13]. - Demand from Middle Eastern clients has been delayed, as many are uncertain about their procurement plans amid the conflict, leading to a decrease in booking requests for shipping services [6][12]. - Major logistics companies, including Maersk, are facing operational disruptions and are working to adapt their networks to mitigate the impact of the conflict on their performance [12][13].

Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with a reported 95% decrease in vessel traffic since March compared to pre-conflict levels [1][7][11] - COSCO Shipping has cautiously resumed booking services for certain Middle Eastern countries, utilizing a multi-modal transport approach that avoids direct passage through the Strait of Hormuz [2][4] - The establishment of a "safe corridor" has allowed some vessels to navigate the Strait, but overall traffic remains low, with only 153 crossings reported from March 1 to 25 [9][10] Group 1: Shipping Operations - COSCO Shipping has announced the resumption of new bookings for shipping to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman, using a combination of land and sea transport [1][4] - The company plans to adjust its main shipping routes to end at ports outside the Strait, specifically on the eastern coast of the UAE, to mitigate risks associated with the conflict [4][5] - Other shipping companies, such as Yang Ming Marine Transport, are also adjusting their operations in response to the heightened risks in the region, with some vessels remaining on standby [5][6] Group 2: Market Demand and Client Behavior - There is a noticeable delay in demand from Middle Eastern clients, as many are uncertain about their purchasing plans due to the ongoing conflict and disrupted travel [5][6] - Some clients who previously used Maersk are being persuaded to switch to COSCO Shipping, but overall booking demand remains low as clients await clearer conditions [5][6] - The logistics operations in the Middle East are facing significant interruptions, which may impact the performance of companies operating in the region [13] Group 3: Safety and Risk Management - The safety situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious, with reports of multiple attacks on vessels, prompting shipping companies to exercise caution [6][12] - The Iranian government has indicated that the Strait is not entirely closed, allowing vessels from friendly nations to pass, but the overall risk remains high [12][13] - Companies are closely monitoring the security situation and adjusting their operations accordingly to ensure the safety of their vessels and crews [6][13]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping company COSCO Shipping Lines has denied reports of its vessels returning from the Strait of Hormuz, while it has resumed booking services for certain Middle Eastern countries amidst rising shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions and additional fees [1][4]. Group 1: Shipping Operations - Two COSCO Shipping Lines vessels, "Zhonghai Indian Ocean" and "Zhonghai Arctic Ocean," are still located in the Persian Gulf, contrary to reports of their return [1] - COSCO Shipping Lines has announced the resumption of new booking services for specific countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The total number of vessels in the Persian Gulf accounts for less than 2% of the global total, with oil and product tankers making up about 5% [1] - Container shipping rates in the Middle East have more than doubled since the end of February due to various fuel surcharges and war-related fees, with only two shipping companies currently accepting orders [4] - Many customers are hesitant to place orders due to uncertainties regarding timely deliveries and potential rerouting of containers [4] Group 3: Industry Adjustments - Major global shipping companies, including CMA CGM, Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE, have announced the implementation of emergency fuel surcharges starting from late March across main and branch shipping routes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of COSCO Shipping Holdings in 2025 is in line with market expectations, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decline by 6.14% and 37.1% year-on-year respectively [1][5]. Business Segments - The expectation for the resumption of services in the Red Sea has been delayed due to geopolitical factors in the Middle East, leading to continued detours for shipping routes in Europe around the Cape of Good Hope [2][6]. - The net new supply of container ships for 2026 is projected to be limited at 3.8%, indicating a constrained supply environment for the year [3][7]. - The dividend yield appears attractive, with projected yields for A/H shares in 2026 at 5.0% and 5.7% respectively [3][8]. Financial Performance - COSCO Shipping Holdings is expected to achieve a revenue of 219.5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, and a net profit of 30.87 billion yuan, down 37.1%, which aligns with expectations [3][8]. - The company completed a container volume of 27.43 million TEUs, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, although freight rates have significantly declined due to increased new ship supply and weak demand [3][8]. - The company announced a year-end dividend of 0.44 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [3][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the company anticipates that the shipping market will face disruptions from the Middle East and Red Sea, with potential for a significant short-term increase in freight rates, which could enhance profitability [3][8]. - Earnings forecasts and target prices have been revised upward to 18.8 yuan and 18.0 Hong Kong dollars respectively, with a reiteration of a "buy" rating [3][8].

Group 1 - COSCO Shipping Lines has announced the resumption of new booking services for ordinary containers from the Far East to several Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, effective March 25 [1] - The company operates a fleet of 453 self-owned container ships with a capacity of 2.45 million TEUs, and a total fleet size of 591 ships with a capacity of 3.6 million TEUs, making it a leader in the industry [3] - COSCO Shipping Lines manages 422 shipping routes, including 275 international routes, 62 coastal routes in China, and 85 routes in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River, with services in approximately 656 ports across 146 countries and regions [3] Group 2 - The Iranian permanent mission to the United Nations stated that non-hostile vessels can safely transit the Strait of Hormuz if their countries do not participate in or support aggressive actions against Iran, provided they comply with security regulations [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China COSCO Shipping Lines has announced the resumption of new booking services for ordinary containers from the Far East to several countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, effective immediately [1] Group 2 - As of January 31, 2026, China COSCO Shipping Lines operates 453 self-owned container ships with a capacity of 2.45 million TEUs. The combined fleet of China COSCO Shipping Lines and Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) consists of 591 container ships with a total capacity of 3.6 million TEUs, making it a leader in the industry [3] - The company operates a total of 422 shipping routes, which include 275 international routes (including international feeder services), 62 coastal routes in China, and 85 routes in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions [3] - The self-owned fleet of the company has port calls in approximately 656 ports across 146 countries and regions worldwide [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the European route is fluctuating with an upward bias [7] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the pricing of freight rates is shifting from fundamental - driven to a dual - driven model of cost support and geopolitical risk premium. In the second quarter, if geopolitical disturbances persist, there may be opportunities to enter long positions on dips, but the risk of amplified freight rate fluctuations should be watched out for. If the geopolitical conflict is resolved or the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, there may be opportunities to short sell off - season contracts on rallies [5] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade on Container Shipping Supply and Demand is Limited - The Strait of Hormuz blockade has a significant impact on the regional shipping market, but its influence on the global container shipping market is limited. The cargo volume of the Persian Gulf region accounts for only 11.7% of the global container shipping trade, and the proportion passing through the Strait of Hormuz is about 2.8%. The container ship capacity in the Middle East and India - Pakistan region accounts for about 11.6% of the world, and the capacity of the Persian Gulf region may not exceed 6%. Even if there is a detour, the possible capacity gap is no more than 3% [12] - The ship - type structure in the Persian Gulf region has a low overlap with the mainstream east - west routes. The Middle East - India - Pakistan route mainly uses non - main - force ship types, with an average ship size of about 6000TEU. In contrast, the mainstream east - west routes are dominated by medium - and large - sized ships. So the disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz has a relatively limited impact on the core capacity of the European route [19] 2. There are Diverse Alternative Transport Solutions, but Hidden Concerns Remain in the Peak Season - After the conflict, some shipping companies have introduced three alternative transport solutions for Persian Gulf goods: detouring around the Cape of Good Hope and transiting through Jeddah Port; transiting through Mediterranean ports; using ports outside the Strait of Hormuz as transfer hubs. Currently, the overall effectiveness of these solutions is high, and the spill - over effect is controllable [31][32] - However, in the peak season, if the proportion of transshipment through the Mediterranean route increases, it may squeeze the space in the Mediterranean line, which may indirectly affect the European line [2][32] 3. Cost Transmission: Rising Energy Prices Push up the Freight Rate Floor - The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up the prices of crude oil and fuel oil. Fuel cost accounts for 30% - 40% of the total cost of the European route, and its increase has supported the freight rate. Many shipping companies have announced the collection of emergency fuel surcharges, and the new cost will be passed on to the shippers [35] - If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, energy prices are likely to stay high, continuously raising the cost support level of the European route. During the peak season, if there are potential supply - side disturbances, the upward space of freight rates may be further opened [36] 4. The Delivery Rhythm of New Ships is Easing, and the Increment on the European Route is Limited - In the first quarter, 14 new 12000 - 17000TEU ships and 2 over - 17000TEU ships were delivered. With the entry of new ships, the supply stability of the European route has been continuously enhanced, and the flight - scheduling rate has risen above 90%. In the second quarter, the proportion of new ships delivered to the European route is expected to further decline [39] 5. Excess Pressure Still Exists, and Macroeconomic Disturbances Increase Uncertainty - In the first quarter, the demand on the European route was supported by pre - tax - refund rush shipments. After the export tax refund was cancelled, the demand may not match the current high capacity level. The market cargo volume is expected to gradually recover from May and enter the peak season around mid - June [45] - In April, the weekly average capacity of shipping companies was close to the saturation limit, and the supply excess pressure was obvious. Although the delivery rhythm of new ships has slowed down, the excess pressure still exists. At the macro level, there are uncertainties in the European economy due to geopolitical disturbances and energy cost surges [46][48] 6. Summary and Outlook - Currently, the fundamentals of the European route are still under pressure, but the negative impact is being offset by geopolitical conflicts and rising energy costs. The pricing of freight rates is shifting from fundamental - driven to a dual - driven model [55] - Three aspects should be focused on: the linkage between the European route and oil prices; the alternative solutions of shipping companies that have not resumed Middle East bookings; and the price changes of shipping companies. In the second quarter, if geopolitical disturbances persist, there may be opportunities to enter long positions on dips. If the conflict is resolved or the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, there may be opportunities to short sell off - season contracts on rallies [55][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate of Maersk in the second week of April decreased, and the valuation of the main contract is gradually becoming clear. The settlement price of the April contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th. Investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [1][5]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to have strong performance. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the demand side from Asia to Europe. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [5][6]. - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen's statement about potentially blocking the Bab el - Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts. The number of container ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has significantly decreased, and the blockade may impact the global supply chain and drive up global shipping rates [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 24, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 42,427.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 35,849.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1898.90, 2178.20, 2439.20, 2567.00, 2410.80, 1720.00, 1573.00, and 1774.00 respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK14 quote was 1635/2630, and WEEK15 was 1455/2330. Different shipping companies had different quotes for different time periods. On March 20, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1636 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2054 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2922 US dollars/FEU. On March 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1693.26 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1024.11 points [1][8]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 + TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 + TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in March was 296,500 TEU, in April was 311,900 TEU, and in May was 305,700 TEU. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in April, and 6 TBNs in May [4]. 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: The US has sent a 15 - point plan to Iran through Pakistan to end the Middle East war. The scope of the plan's circulation among Iranian officials, Iran's acceptance, and Israel's support are all unclear, but it shows the US's efforts to end the war [2]. - Houthi armed forces: The Houthi armed forces in Yemen may block the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which may impact the global supply chain and drive up shipping rates. The number of container ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly [7]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side from Asia to Europe is relatively high, with the container trade volume in most months having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to whether developed countries in Europe and the US will increase imports due to concerns about inflation, as well as the risk of a global economic recession caused by a large increase in oil prices [6].