2025年8月22日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中东局势反复,现价维持下跌,助长空头情绪,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 8月15日 8月18日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1052.5点,较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 2180.17点,较上期下跌2.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1188.7点,较上期下跌5.5% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1106.29点, 较上期上涨2.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1042.91点, 较上期下跌5.9% 8月15日 8月15日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1460.19点,较上期下跌29.49点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1193.34点,较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1820USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.2% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1790.47点,较上期下跌0.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl美西航线1759US ...

2025年8月22日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中东局势反复,现价维持下跌,助长空头情绪,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 8月15日 8月18日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1052.5点,较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 2180.17点,较上期下跌2.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1188.7点,较上期下跌5.5% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1106.29点, 较上期上涨2.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1042.91点, 较上期下跌5.9% 8月15日 8月15日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1460.19点,较上期下跌29.49点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1193.34点,较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1820USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.2% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1790.47点,较上期下跌0.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl美西航线1759US ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-22 运价中枢持续下修，关注马士基9月第二周报价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹36周价格1300/2180；HPL 8月下半月船期报价1435/2235，9月上半月船期 报价1435/2235，9月下半月价格1435/2235。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 8月下半月船期报价1550/2590，9月上半月船期报价1556/2602；ONE 8月下半月船期 报价1634/2543，9月上半月船期报价1964/3043；HMM上海-鹿特丹8月下半月船期报价1315/2200; YML8月26日-8 月底报价1350/2200. 地缘端：以色列总理内塔尼亚胡：已批准以色列国防军接管加沙城的计划。已指示启动停火谈判。哈马斯高级官 员：以总理是达成加沙停火协议的主要障碍。沙特王储会见埃及总统，一致反对以色列军事占领加沙企图。 中国-欧基港8月份剩余2周周均运力28.31万TEU，WEEK34/35周运力分别为26.23/30.4TEU。9月份月度周均运力 31.58万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5] - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend, the futures market is weakly volatile with large recent fluctuations, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Set stop - losses [2] - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6 [3] - The eurozone's SENTIX investor confidence index in July reached 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, hitting the highest level since April 2022 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] - The initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Situation - As of August 20, the Israeli side has not responded to the new cease - fire agreement proposed by Hamas, and the Israeli military has approved an offensive plan for Gaza City [7] - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 20, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1355.0, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 27,500 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, a decrease of 1072 lots from the previous day [5] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The top of the August contract's freight rate has emerged, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price, with the final estimated settlement price around 2100 points [4]. - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated during the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Under normal circumstances, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists for the December contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. - For strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1290/2160; HPL's various time - period quotations are relatively stable at 1535/2435. Many other shipping companies' prices are also provided, and the prices of some shipping companies are showing a downward trend [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas condemned Israel's military action "Gideon Chariot 2", stating that Israel is continuing the 22 - month - long genocide war and ignoring the efforts of mediators to promote a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees [2]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of August is 283,100 TEU, with 262,300/304,000 TEU in weeks 34/35 respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in September is 315,800 TEU, and in October it is 281,300 TEU. There are also information about overtime ships and empty sailings [3]. 2. Futures Contracts Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining. The final estimated delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - **October Contract**: It is an off - season contract, mainly short - allocated. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rates of many shipping companies are falling, and HPL's two overtime ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but not to chase short excessively [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists, and the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. 3. Shipping Company Price Trends - Many shipping companies' prices are showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's week 36 price drops to 2100 US dollars/FEU, HPL's late - August freight rate drops to 2435 US dollars/FEU, and the prices of OA and PA alliances also follow the downward trend [5]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Market Trends - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU [8]. - The current shipping market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, shipping capacity adjustments, and the off - peak and peak seasons, which jointly affect the freight rate trends [2][3][4][5][6].

点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1. 万国数据-SW(09698)绩后高开近5% 上半年利润6.9亿元人民币 同比扭亏为盈。目前该公司正在推进 C轮股权融资，以支持后续项目建设和市场拓展。 2. BOSS直聘-W(02076)涨超5.5% 上半年纯利同比增长85% 平均月活用户增近两成，此外，董事会批 准了公司的年度股息政策，并确定本年度股息金额约为8000万美元；同时宣布了一期不超过2.5亿美 元的股份回购计划。 3. 长城汽车(02333)涨近6% 哈弗猛龙2026款上市24小时订单超两万台 坦克500预售表现亮眼。若后续 新平台车型持续导入，销量天花板将进一步抬升，将显著增强利润弹性。 4. 周生生(00116)再涨近3% 下周三将发业绩 预计中期持续经营业务盈利增至逾9亿，期内黄金价格持 续上涨，黄金商品的销售获得了更高的毛利率。门市网络的整合以及其他成本控制措施令成本降低， 也为溢利增长带来贡献。 5. 中国中车(01766)涨超5% 。210组动车招标落地 机构指年内铁路投资有望维持高位。此外，今年国 铁两次动车组高级修招标累计663.5组(三级修90.25组+四级修235.25组+五级修338 ...

智通财经APP获悉，海丰国际(01308)涨近5%，高见30.48港元再创新高，截至发稿，涨4.54%，报30.42 港元，成交额5354.03万港元。 消息面上，海丰国际公布上半年业绩，收入约为16.645亿美元，同比增长28.0%；毛利约为6.694亿美 元，同比增长66.3%，毛利率由31.0%升至40.2%；利润为6.334亿美元，同比增长79.5%；每股基本盈利 0.24美元。收入增长主要归因于集装箱运量增加7.3%以及平均运费上涨22.8%。 长江证券指出，回顾上半年，亚洲区域内需求强劲且供给受限，运价同比上涨明显，公司受益于量价齐 升。同时，尽管租船数量增加导致租金成本上涨，但得益于货物运输和航程等成本控制得当，单箱成本 基本持平，综合兑现业绩增长。公司拟中期分红每股0.17美元，中期分红派息率为71%，年化股息率为 9.7%。展望未来，当前支线船超期服役问题严重，且在手订单占比仍处于低位，供给长期受限；若10 月美国301法案拟议措施正式落地，对于4000TEU以下支线船收费豁免将强化支线船供给紧张逻辑。此 外，公司中期分红派息率为71%，年化股息率为9.7%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The 12 - month contract follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The 10 - month contract should be mainly short - allocated, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. The August contract has an uncertain delivery settlement price due to the continuous decline in freight rates [5][6][8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Week 36 price increased, while some other companies' prices remained stable or decreased. Maersk's PSS in the Far East - Nordic region dropped to $50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Middle - Eastern media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media stated that Israel received a new cease - fire proposal from Hamas [2]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports varies in different months. There are TBNs and empty sailings in September and October, and there were many additional ships in August. HPL announced two additional ships for October [3]. 2. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining, which brings uncertainty to the delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - **October Contract**: It is a quarterly contract, mainly short - allocated. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. After Maersk's Week 36 price dropped, attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit. HPL's additional ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [5][6]. - **December Contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, freight rates are usually high. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6]. 3. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of August 19, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,773 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 34,375 lots. Different contracts had different closing prices [7]. - **Spot Data**: On August 15, 2025, the SCFI for different routes was announced. On August 18, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2180.17 points [7]. - **Container Ship Delivery**: In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the October contract when the price is high [8].

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：闫海/张慧 事件：海丰国际发布2025 年上半年业绩公告，2025 年上半年公司营收16.645 亿美金，同比增长28%。 归母净利润6.3 亿美元，同比增长79.7%。高出我们2 季度前瞻给的5亿美元的预测，较超预期。 上半年量价齐升，成本持平。货运量：上半年完成货运量183.0 万TEU，同比增长7.3%，一方面公司运 力增加：6 月底公司控制运力18.58 万TEU，同比增长9%（自有船运力同比增长3%）；另一方面，也受 到东南亚上半年强劲的贸易支撑。单箱运费：上半年集运收入剔除共享仓位收入后的单箱收入为776 美 元/TEU，同比增长22.77%。成本：上半年公司营业成本9.95 亿美元，同比增长10.8%；单箱成本约544 美元/TEU，较2024 年上半年同比增长3.3%，环比2024 年下半年单箱成本545 美元/TEU 持平。 积极分红，股息率11.5%。2025 年上半年派息1.30 港元，分红比例约73%左右。过去12个月的分红累计 金额达到83.65 亿港元，按8 月14 日市值计算股息率约11.5%。 亚洲区域航线运价表现突出，领先于平均水平。今年上半年SC ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai and Ningbo ports' congestion has improved compared to the previous period, but the ship turnover time remains high. With the weakening of the shipping scale trend, the pressure on Chinese ports is expected to ease, but potential weather disturbances need attention. Southeast Asian port congestion pressure has significantly declined. [2] - In Europe, issues such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine are still intensifying, leading to a continuous increase in port pressure. [2] - The overall congestion level of North American ports is controllable, and attention should be paid to subsequent port operation dynamics. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data点评 - **Asian Ports**: Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, and Ningbo ports in China have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with varying numbers of ships at anchor and in berth. Southeast Asian ports like Singapore and Port Klang also show different congestion situations. Chinese port congestion has improved, and Southeast Asian port pressure has dropped significantly. [2] - **European Ports**: Ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg in Europe have high average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships. Problems like summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction, and low river water levels are causing continuous pressure on European ports. [2] - **North American Ports**: Overall congestion in North American ports is controllable, with different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships in various ports. [2] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides data on the in - port duration of key container ports, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, Yangshan Port's latest in - port duration is 47.0 hours, with a month - on - month increase of 6.0 hours and a year - on - year increase of 16.3 hours. [6] 3.3 Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - It presents data on the scale of container ships in ports in China and Southeast Asia, the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in different ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports. [8][16] 3.4 European Port Dynamic Tracking - It shows the scale of container ships in European ports, the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in major ports in north - western Europe and the Mediterranean, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in north - western European and Mediterranean ports. [19][27] 3.5 North American Port Dynamic Tracking - It provides data on the scale of container ships in North American ports, the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in some ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in US ports. [32][34] 3.6 Large - Ship Arrival Situation and Key Hub Monitoring - It shows the arrival situation of large - scale container ships at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, the arrival situation of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asian, north - western European, and Mediterranean ports, and the passage situation of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal. [42][45][48]