钨因中 国的出口限制而价格高涨 从作为阻燃剂使用的锑来看，中国掌握全球产量的6成。锑从2024年9月开始成为中国的出口管制对象。 尽管出口量从2024年年底开始呈现恢复态势，但近期供应量再次缩小，2025年6月同比减少9成以上。 中国加强出口管制的原因是围绕关税的中美对立。作为对美国的反制措施，中国2025年4月将纯电动汽 车（EV）零部件不可或缺的一部分稀土列为出口管制对象。日本第一生命经济研究所的高级研究员嶌 峰义清表示，"作为对美国的报复，认为对稀土以外的重要矿产的出口管制将再次加强也是很自然的"。 经过6月的中美部长级磋商，中国稀土出口管制有望放宽。有观点认为稀土以外的重要矿产的出口管制 也有望逐步放宽。不过，根据与美国的对立状况，不可否认中国再次把出口管制作为谈判筹码的风险。 2010年中国实施稀土对日出口管制时，日本企业采取了改变生产方法、提高回收比率等措施，出现了在 稀土等方面降低对中国依赖的趋势。但在矿产资源的开采和冶炼成本方面，中国保持优势，中国掌握重 要矿产的主导权。 稀有金属的价格正在上涨。作为"超硬工具"（用于加工汽车发动机和飞机零件）的材料，钨的价格与年 初相比上涨了45%，用于半导 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tungsten industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining of tungsten ore to smelting and deep processing, ultimately applied in various industrial fields. The upstream focuses on black and white tungsten ore, while the midstream involves the smelting of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder. The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, and hard alloys, with demand coming from sectors like machinery manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [2][6] - As of July 23, 2023, the prices for tungsten products have seen significant increases compared to the beginning of the year, with black tungsten concentrate at 185,000 RMB/ton (up 29.4%), APT at 272,000 RMB/ton (up 28.9%), tungsten powder at 405 RMB/kg (up 28.2%), and tungsten carbide powder at 395 RMB/kg (up 27.0%) [2][16] - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 showing a decrease in quotas, leading to expectations of a supply shortage. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production, but total control policies have gradually lowered production levels [2][29] - Demand for tungsten is expected to grow, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and military applications, with the APT operating rate at historical highs. The demand for high-end hard alloys is resilient, supporting mid-to-high-end tungsten prices [2][16] - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a projected shortage of 2,919 tons in 2025, with prices expected to continue rising. Demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.9% to 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, while supply is expected to increase by only 2,000 tons annually [2][16] - Key companies in the tungsten industry include Xiamen Tungsten, which has a full industry chain layout and is rapidly increasing its photovoltaic tungsten wire production; Zhongtung High-tech, a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages; and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has prominent resource advantages and improved deep processing profitability [2][16] Summary by Sections Tungsten Price Review - The tungsten prices have shown a steady increase over the past five years, correlating positively with PMI [9][12] Supply: Decrease in Mining Indicators - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a reduction, with 2025's indicators down by 6.45%. This reduction reinforces expectations of a tight supply [2][16] Demand: Growth Driven by Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase, particularly in high-end applications, with a projected consumption of 71,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6] Supply-Demand Balance: Expanding Shortage - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a growing shortage, with projected deficits increasing from 2,919 tons in 2025 to 9,020 tons by 2027 [2][16] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its photovoltaic tungsten wire production, while Zhongtung High-tech is a leader in hard alloys with strong raw material supply advantages [2][16]

Group 1: Strategic Metal Pricing and Supply Dynamics - The strategic attributes of metals are increasingly important, with China implementing export controls on key strategic metals, leading to significant price differentiation domestically and internationally. This has resulted in an overall upward trend in domestic strategic metal prices [12][14][51]. - The supply of rare earth materials is tightening due to slowed domestic mining quotas and increased instability in overseas supply. In 2024, China's rare earth production is expected to be 270,000 tons REO, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping from 21% in 2023 to 6% [19][26][52]. - China's dominance in rare earth resources is evident, holding 48.9% of global reserves and 69% of global production in 2024. The concentration of resources is significant, with the top four countries accounting for 86.2% of global reserves [19][21][49]. Group 2: Demand Growth in Key Sectors - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to grow, driven by the rapid development of electric vehicles, energy-saving motors, and humanoid robots, which are key areas for future growth [52]. - The tungsten market is anticipated to see steady demand recovery, supported by the increasing need for hard alloys and applications in the photovoltaic sector, alongside military demand due to geopolitical tensions [3][5]. - The electronic materials sector is benefiting from advancements in AI technology, which is driving the need for upgraded electronic materials to meet higher performance requirements [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in New Materials - The AI technology evolution is creating opportunities for the electronic new materials sector, with a notable recovery trend in the electronic industry expected to accelerate the demand for these materials [7][8]. - The military sector is gradually recovering, with new materials for military applications expected to see increased demand as the aerospace industry continues to evolve [10][11]. - The titanium market is poised for growth due to the ongoing development of the aerospace sector, with increasing orders for domestic aircraft like the C919 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is entering a bull market phase, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging industries and geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant rise in tungsten prices and highlighting the strategic value of global tungsten industry leaders [1][3][7]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of June 6, the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China has surpassed 173,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 31,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative growth of 21.8% [1][7]. - The price of tungsten has been on an upward trend since mid-March, reaching a historical high of 166,500 yuan per ton on May 16, and further increasing to 173,000 yuan by June 6 [7][8]. - The global supply of tungsten is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while global tungsten consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [3][36]. Group 2: Policy Impacts and Strategic Value - The strategic value of tungsten is increasingly recognized amid de-globalization, with China tightening mining quotas and enhancing export controls, particularly affecting upstream products like APT and tungsten carbide [3][15]. - The U.S. and Europe are restructuring their supply chains and increasing strategic stockpiling of tungsten, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and planning to boost tungsten inventory levels [3][23][27]. - China's export controls on tungsten products are expected to limit the export of midstream products, while downstream high-value tungsten products may see increased export opportunities [3][30]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Demand Growth - China's tungsten production growth is slowing, with a significant drop in the over-extraction rate from 32% in 2020 to 14% in 2024, indicating a tightening supply [16][36]. - Emerging industries, such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and robotics, are driving domestic demand, while geopolitical conflicts are stimulating overseas demand for tungsten [41][45]. - The global tungsten supply is expected to face constraints, with only Kazakhstan and South Korea likely to contribute significant supply increases in the short term [36][38].

在自然界，钨的硬度仅次于钻石，密度则接近黄金，几乎"啃得动"所有东西，号称"工业牙齿"。近期， 钨价节节攀升，涨至历史高位，上海钢联数据显示，5月26日，黑钨精矿价格为16.55万元/标吨，相较4 月初（14万元/标吨）上涨18.2%。中间品价格也水涨船高，5月26日，仲钨酸铵（APT）价格为24.4万 元/吨，相较4月初上涨17%。 上海证券报记者采访了解到，近期钨原料价格上涨缘于供需基本面驱动。钨矿开采配额有所收紧，老矿 山含钨量缩水，新矿山接棒乏力。专家认为，在需求端，PCB（印制电路板）切削刀具等领域用钨量仍 有增长潜力。中长期来看，钨产业景气度或将持续向好。 一位钨企采购人士认为，除钨矿开采总量控制指标在收缩外，当前市场已完成去库存。此外，钨产业链 绿色转型持续推进，对钨矿开采的管控也更加严格。随着对钨环保、出口方面的管控增强，市场上开采 手续不完整的钨矿逐渐消失，钨矿供应少于往年。 多重因素造成钨原料供应紧张 业内人士认为，钨原料供应总体减少是钨价上升的主要原因：一方面，2025年首批钨矿开采配额下滑； 另一方面，现有老矿山品位下滑、增量资源有限。 我国是主要的钨生产国和消费国，数据显示，2024 ...

Group 1: Capacity Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is focused on upstream resource exploration and integration to ensure orderly replacement of mining resources, with plans for deep mining and infrastructure development to enhance resource reserves and extraction efficiency [1][7] - In the midstream, the company aims to optimize production processes and develop automated production workshops to meet diverse market demands [1][2] - The company’s subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai Tool Technology Co., Ltd., is committed to high-value hard alloy markets, particularly in aerospace and new energy sectors [2] Group 2: Environmental and Energy Management - The company has established an integrated management system and obtained ISO14001:2015 and ISO50001:2018 certifications for environmental and energy management [4] - Continuous technological innovation and process improvements are being implemented to optimize energy structure and promote energy-saving technologies [5] - The company emphasizes resource efficiency, clean production, and compliance with environmental regulations, actively promoting green practices among employees [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Challenges - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 18.71% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, indicating challenges in international trade [5] - The company is focused on enhancing product quality and stability, expanding product categories, and increasing customer loyalty to penetrate overseas markets [5] - The gross margins for core products like tungsten powder and tungsten carbide powder are relatively low at 8.01% and 10.38%, respectively, prompting the company to seek measures to improve profitability [7] Group 4: Resource Management and Future Plans - The company owns six mining rights and ten exploration rights, with ongoing efforts to integrate mining resources and explore deeper mining opportunities [6][7] - New exploration rights are expected to enhance resource integration and expand tungsten concentrate production capacity [7] - The company is committed to maintaining a stable supply of raw materials and improving product competitiveness to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly increased its export controls on rare metals such as tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, leading to rising prices and supply concerns in the global market [1][2][3] Group 1: Export Controls and Market Impact - On February 4, China announced immediate export controls on several rare metals, which has resulted in a noticeable price increase for bismuth [1] - The export controls are part of China's broader strategy to manage its rare metal resources, with immediate implementation rather than a buffer period, intensifying supply concerns [1] - The U.S. government has responded by imposing a 10% tariff on all imports from China, which is perceived as a countermeasure to China's export restrictions [1] Group 2: Specific Metals and Price Changes - Tungsten, used in superhard tools, is also affected by the new export controls, particularly ammonium paratungstate (APT), which has seen an 8% price increase in Europe [2] - The price of APT in Europe is approximately $365 per 10 kilograms as of March 6, indicating a shift in sourcing strategies among European companies [2] - The tungsten industry is actively seeking to reduce dependence on China, with the U.S. planning to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese tungsten starting January 2025 [2] Group 3: Broader Implications and Future Outlook - Since 2023, China has been tightening export controls on various rare metals, including gallium and germanium, with antimony also being added to the list in September 2024 [3] - The price of antimony in Europe has surged to 2.2 times its pre-control level, reflecting significant supply concerns due to reduced Chinese exports [3] - Japan has been particularly affected, with zero antimony exports from China in the last quarter of 2024, raising questions about the sustainability of future export licenses [3]