中美经济和政策周期同步共振
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中信证券:年内还有两个关键时点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-03-23 08:59
Group 1 - The report highlights two key time points in the year: the first is the external risk landing in early April, which will create trading opportunities, and the second is the synchronization of the US and China economic and policy cycles around mid-year, leading to allocation opportunities [1] - The first key time point involves the resolution of external risks, including the announcement of the results of the US priority trade policy memorandum investigation and the clarification of the method and scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Following the significant adjustments in March, the technology theme is expected to become the best direction for investment in April and May due to its weak macroeconomic correlation and strong industrial catalysts [1] Group 2 - The second key time point anticipates a weakening US economy in the second quarter, coupled with increased tariff pressures, which may trigger the fourth round of total economic stimulus in China since 2013 [1] - The report predicts that after this, the economic and policy cycles of the US and China will experience their first synchronous upward resonance since 2021, which will benefit the upward narrative of domestic demand and relieve the valuation pressure on core Chinese assets [1] - As more traditional core assets begin to show performance turning points, the market is expected to witness the most significant style switch since 2021 [1]