中美经贸缓和
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国债期货:中美经贸缓和,国债期货震荡回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures leading the decline [1] - The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US led to a 91% reduction in tax rates and a 24% suspension of tax rates, with a 90 - day observation period. This indicates a phased easing of bilateral economic and trade relations, causing a rapid decline in the safe - haven demand for treasury bonds and a rapid increase in the risk appetite for risk assets [1] - In the medium - to - long - term, due to large external environmental uncertainties, a stable internal environment is needed. Macroeconomic policies will gradually intensify, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a solid policy foundation for the medium - to - long - term upward movement of treasury bonds [1] - In the short term, after the central bank cuts interest rates and reserves, it needs to observe macroeconomic indicators. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve also disturbs the central bank's subsequent interest - rate cut rhythm, reducing the possibility of further interest - rate cuts in the short term [1] - The recent easing expectation between China and the US has reduced the safe - haven demand for treasury bonds, but there is still a possibility of US flip - flopping, so the follow - up China - US consultations need continuous attention [1] - In general, treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On May 11, 2025, the People's Bank of China released the First - Quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, stating that the central bank's short - term focus is to implement a package of financial policies launched in May and may make decisions based on domestic fundamentals and Federal Reserve monetary policy changes [4] - On May 12, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 43 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. There were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market on this day, resulting in a net investment of 43 billion yuan [4]