中美贸易成本
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受中美贸易成本支撑 短期内预计豆粕仍然震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-01 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight weekly decline in prices and an increase in open interest, indicating mixed market sentiment [1][2]. Market Summary - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3055 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of -1.26% [1]. - The trading range for soybean meal futures during the week was between 3027 CNY/ton and 3128 CNY/ton, with an opening price of 3094 CNY/ton [1]. - On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country reached 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Export and Pricing Information - The USDA reported that for the week ending August 21, 2024/2025 soybean meal net export sales were 47,000 tons, slightly up from 46,000 tons the previous week [2]. - For the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were reported at 215,000 tons, an increase from 176,000 tons the prior week [2]. - FOB Rotterdam prices for high-protein soybean meal for November delivery fell by $2/ton, reaching the lowest level since August 12 [2]. Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted an increase in soybean meal inventory and a rise in the good-to-excellent rating of U.S. soybeans, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook, but limited downside due to U.S.-China trade cost support [3]. - Guohai Futures highlighted a consensus expectation of a supply-demand gap due to U.S.-China trade developments and the potential for state reserves to auction imported soybeans [3]. - Short-term factors such as rising costs and seasonal demand strength are expected to support soybean meal prices, while medium-term upward potential remains constrained [3].