主要观点 本月豆粕震荡下跌。 成本端，9月USDA报告单产、产量及库存预估均高于预期，报告影响中性偏空；美豆产区总体干燥少雨，不利于 晚播大豆生长但利于早播大豆收获，美豆收获持续推进，但美豆出口仍显偏弱；叠加巴西Conab发布报告显示 2025/26年度巴西大豆产量预估1.7767亿吨再创新高。多重利空压制美豆震荡走低。 国内，9月大豆到港充足支撑国内供应，油厂开机率保持高水平，同时近期下游补库低迷，豆粕现货供需宽松， 油厂大豆及豆粕持续累库。 策略：美豆震荡走低使进口大豆成本表现弱势，叠加9月国内大量采购阿根廷大豆及豆粕，国内豆粕远月缺口有 所减小，豆粕价格震荡走低。未来仍需关注中美关税谈判情况，国内豆粕仍以偏空为主，不过短期跌幅或有限， 连粕延续筑底走势。策略上，暂时观望。 正信期货豆粕月报202509 投资咨询编:Z0022017 Email:chenq@zxqh. net 研究员:陈强 审核:张翠萍 投资咨询编号:Z0016574 Email:zhangcp@zxqh. net 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 CBOT大豆与M2601豆粕走势 截至9月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term market sentiment being weak. It is recommended to observe cautiously and pay attention to changes in the premium and discount quotes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Due to less rainfall in the production areas recently, the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline, and there may be room for a subsequent reduction in US soybean yield per unit [8]. - In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start decreasing, but the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain abundant in the fourth quarter. Currently, the purchasing progress for November - January is slow, and the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, with the source of supplementation yet to be determined [8]. Demand - Short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry in breeding is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply [8]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year. It is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term [8]. - The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [8]. Market Performance - Affected by Argentina's zero - tariff on soybean exports, domestic purchasing has increased. With the pressure of hedging and speculative positions, the soybean meal futures market has dropped significantly today [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a record high but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance sheet for 25/26 US soybeans. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a high level, and the impact of recent weather on it is expected to be limited. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is rising and in a cumulative inventory cycle. The short - term demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories, but downstream transactions are cautious. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to be supported by the tight supply - demand balance sheet, and the MO1 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang is 20/21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions has different values and changes, such as - 8 in Zhangjiagang, - 68 in Dongguan, etc. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 10 with a change of 7. [6] - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread is 131. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong is 300 with a change of - 16, and the spread in the main contract is 412 with a change of - 3 [7] Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre but cut the 25/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory is reduced to 290 million bushels. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The September domestic soybean arrival is expected to be over 10 million tons, and the soybean meal is expected to be in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level [7] Demand - Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. The policy aims to control live pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume. Wheat replacing corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream soybean meal transactions this week are cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory is rising. The inventory level is lower than last year but still in a cumulative inventory cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market Outlook and Strategy - With no progress in Sino - US talks, the stabilization and rebound of Brazilian logistics, and less precipitation in the US soybean production area, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, supporting the CBOT soybean futures. Under the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. In the short - term, the trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels per acre but unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 290 million bushels, and the new - crop supply - demand balance sheet is tight. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate rose to 69% this week, at a high level over the years. Although recent rainfall in the production area is low and the temperature is low, the impact on the good - to - excellent rate is expected to be limited. The expected soybean arrival volume in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the soybean supply is expected to be in a stock - building cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7] Demand - High inventories of pigs and poultry support the feed demand. However, policy aims to control pig inventory and weight, which is expected to affect the long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the protein usage. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal inventory has risen, and the inventory level is lower than last year, but it is still expected to be in a stock - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market - There is no progress in Sino - US talks, and the Brazilian premium has stabilized and rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of recent low precipitation in the US soybean production area on the yield. The tight supply - demand balance sheet supports the CBOT soybean futures, and the import cost supports the soybean meal price [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a historical high but unexpectedly lowered the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tightened supply - demand balance for new - crop US soybeans. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean inventory is expected to continue to accumulate until October and then start to decline. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. In the short term, the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On August 29, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95, down 16; in Tianjin, no data was provided; in Rizhao, it was - 55, down 16. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 15, down 16; in Dongguan, it was - 115, down 16; in Zhanjiang, it was - 85, down 6; in Fangcheng, it was - 75, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 9, down 13. The M1 - 5 spread was 235, up 10 [6] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 89, up 14. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in the factory area was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the main contract was 542, down 14 [7] 2. International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0884. The soybean CNF premium showed different trends for different months in Brazil. The domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills was at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory was rising but lower than last year. The feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days were increasing [7] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, and the 25/26 US soybean ending inventory was lowered. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be over ten million tons, and the inventory is expected to accumulate until October. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] - Demand: Short - term high存栏 of pigs and poultry supports feed demand, but policy controls on pig存栏 and weight may affect long - term supply. The soybean meal price is cost - effective, but downstream transactions this week were cautious [8] 4. Market Outlook - The 101 contract is weak due to Sino - US negotiation expectations and state reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand of US soybeans supports the CBOT soybean price. The difference between US and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums has narrowed. The 001 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend [8]

美国农业部：截至8月21日当周，美国2024/2025年度豆粕出口净销售为4.7万吨，前一周为4.6万吨； 2025/2026年度豆粕净销售21.5万吨，前一周为17.6万吨；美国2024/2025年度豆粕出口装船19.8万吨，前 一周为26.5万吨。 8月28日，11月交货的欧洲高蛋白豆粕FOB鹿特丹报价较周三每吨下跌2美元，达到8月12日以来的最低 水平。11月交货的欧洲低蛋白豆粕的FOB鹿特丹价格较昨日下跌1美元，亦徘徊在8月12日以来的最低水 平附近。南美豆粕报价每吨上涨2美元至下跌7美元。 机构观点汇总： 中辉期货：本周最新豆粕库存环比累库，本周美豆周度作物优良率环比上升，数据偏空，短线下跌调整 行情，但受中美贸易成本支撑，近期持续下行空间有限，暂以大区间对待，3000元附近及以下继续追空 需谨慎。 截至2025年8月29日当周，豆粕期货主力合约收于3055元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持29958 手。 本周（8月25日-8月29日）市场上看，豆粕期货周内开盘报3094元/吨，最高触及3128元/吨，最低下探至 3027元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-1.26%。 消息面回顾： 8月28日：全国主要油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The new US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight. Under the current China - US trade policy, the discount of Brazilian soybeans is expected to have a limited decline. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 00 is expected to be limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a volatile upward trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the expected increase in costs. Attention should be paid to changes in China - US policies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, a record high, but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. As a result, the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks were cut from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels [5]. - The Pro Farmer inspection showed that the estimated yield per acre of new US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA estimate. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%, still at a high level. Rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks was expected to be low, but the temperature was low, which might lead to a downward revision of the good - excellent rate [5]. - The arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle. Shipments from October to January are slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - Short - term high inventory levels of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. However, policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect far - month pig supply [6]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of high - protein feed. Soybean meal downstream transactions this week are relatively cautious [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, etc. [4][5]

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing rapidly, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 2: Supply - related Summary - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. In May, the customs' soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival volume is expected to reach a high in June, July, and August, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Group 3: Demand - related Summary - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains high. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Group 4: Inventory - related Summary - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean meal inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6] Group 5: Data Presentation Basis Data - On July 10th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 14, down 7; in Tianjin, it was - 74, down 7; in other regions, the basis and its changes are also presented. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) in different regions also has corresponding data and changes. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 131, down 25 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong and the spread on the main futures contract are presented, along with their historical data and changes [5] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1311, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit on the futures, and the crushing profit on the futures are also given, along with relevant data on soybean inventory in Chinese ports, soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean crushing volume in major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The优良率 of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas will be suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [8]. - From the perspective of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is slower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate in late June [7][8]. - Overall, the sharp rise in crude oil and the US biodiesel policy are favorable for oils and fats, suppressing the performance of beans. Under the current Sino - US policy, the premium is relatively firm, and the import cost of far - month soybean meal provides support. With the improvement of demand, the inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal is slow. It is expected that soybean meal inventory will accelerate in late June. The spot basis and near - month contracts remain strong. Before the release of the August USDA planting area report, the market is expected to be volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - Different regions have different basis values for 43% soybean meal spot (relative to the main contract). For example, in Dalian it is 5, in Tianjin it is - 65, in Zhangjiagang it is - 125 etc. [6] - There are also differential changes in basis for different regions of rapeseed meal spot, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [6][7] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1802, with a change of - 4. There are also data on soybean CNF premium and import soybean futures gross profit for different Brazilian shipment months [7] - Domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have increased slightly but are still at a low level [7][8] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is over 10 million tons. The current purchase progress for June is 100%, July is 95.9%, August is 55.2%, but the purchase for September and later is slow [7] - **Demand**: From the perspective of livestock inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, downstream transactions have increased, and提货 has improved [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - In the current Sino-US trade policy environment, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, which will raise the center of the soybean meal futures price. The spot market is active with downstream traders and feed mills actively buying, mainly trading on the 10 - 1 basis. Rumors of plant shutdowns support the short - term bullish oscillation of the futures price. However, with the continuous progress of vessel bookings, if the weather is normal, the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade policies and the planting area report at the end of the month [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on June 11th, in Dalian it was - 17 (up 34), in Rizhao - 157 (up 14), in Tianjin - 67 (up 24), in Zhangjiagang - 167 (down 16), in Dongguan - 187 (down 6), in Zhanjiang - 147 (down 6), and in Fangcheng - 167 (down 16). For rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong, it was - 128 (up 16) [4] Spread Data - On June 11th, the M9 - 1 spread was - 17, N9 - RM9 was 20, RM9 - 1 was 1200, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350 (down 15), and the futures spread of the main contract was 200 (up 7) [5] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1383, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 115 (down 62), and the import soybean futures gross profit was - 62 yuan/ton [5] Inventory Data - As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and was at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory but was still at a low level. With the significant increase in processing and crushing, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate more rapidly in June [6] Supply, Demand, and Market Situation - Supply: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current vessel booking progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth [5][6] - Demand: Judging from the livestock inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, the poultry inventory remains high, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions have increased with better delivery [6] - Market situation: The downstream traders and feed mills are actively buying, and the market trading is booming, mainly trading on the 10 - 1 basis. There are rumors of plant shutdowns, which support the short - term bullish oscillation of the futures price [6]