豆一偏强，豆粕延续震荡 2026年1月6日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约节后冲高，在4300附近遇阻回落。现货价格继续上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4200元/吨涨至4320元/ 吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面维持贴水。 豆粕主力2605合约上下震荡。豆粕现货价格小落，张家港43粕由3070元/吨落至3050元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘 面贴水扩大。 （1）国产大豆销售加速，东北过半，国储大豆拍卖补充。据钢联：截至1月2日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至47%，环 比降3%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至52%，环比降3%；河南大豆余粮占比落至57%，环比降3%；山东大豆余粮占比落至58%， 环比降4%。在国产优质大豆预期偏紧的情况下，国储大豆大量拍卖补充市场。 （2）进口大豆拍卖暂缓，港口大豆库存回落。进口大豆拍卖12月19号后暂无公告。中方采购大豆有所放缓，11月 国内进口大豆811万吨，环比再落，同比仍增13.3%；港口大豆库存持续回落。据钢联：截至1月2日，油厂大豆到港量为 230.1万吨，环比大增；港口大豆库存为823.6万吨，环比持续回落。 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds for consumer goods trade - in. New subsidy objects include smart products, and home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. Car purchase subsidies remain at 2025 caps, and home appliance subsidy scope and rates are reduced [2] - From 2026, the VAT levy rate for individuals selling homes bought less than 2 years ago drops to 3%, and those bought 2 or more years ago are exempt. This will boost second - hand housing trading activity but increase supply [2] - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to balance supply and demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [2] - In December 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value drops 55 yuan/ton, a 3.6% decline [3] - Last week, domestic oil mills had high operating rates, and soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate. During the New Year's Day holiday, soybean crushing is expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons, but inventory may remain high at around 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, PVC, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance shows different percentage changes for various commodity futures sectors, with precious metals at 32.77%, non - metallic building materials at 2.20%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 0.00% daily change, 1.97% monthly change, and 18.30% annual change [6] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean sales are regionally differentiated, with accelerated sales in the Northeast and supplemented by state - reserve soybean auctions, and the price is firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory has declined, and there is import and auction activity. The oil mill's operating rate has slightly decreased, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, while the demand is strong. The soybean No.1 futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal futures will fluctuate and adjust [6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The main contract of soybean No.1 2605 rebounded significantly. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,120 yuan/ton to around 4,200 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No.1 strengthened in oscillation, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 rebounded but then fell back, continuing to oscillate. The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3,030 yuan/ton to around 3,060 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened in oscillation, and the futures discount widened [4] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales - The sales of domestic soybeans are regionally differentiated. As of December 26, the remaining soybean inventory in Heilongjiang accounted for 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 8%; in Anhui, it was 55%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; in Henan, it was 60%, unchanged; and in Shandong, it was 62%, a decrease of 2%. Recently, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans have been continuously auctioned. From December 23, about 600,000 tons have been put up for auction, and 480,000 tons have been sold, supplementing the market [4] 3.3 Soybean Import and Inventory - China's soybean procurement has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decline but still a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. It is reported that the purchase of US soybeans may also be delayed, and the port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of December 26, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.443 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline; the port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, with a continuous month - on - month decline [4] 3.4 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market continued to oscillate and adjust. The USDA's December supply - demand report made few adjustments, being neutral. The US is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases and the production increase pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [4] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The cost of Brazilian soybeans has dropped significantly, and the crushing margin has increased, but the operating rate of oil mills has not increased. As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 2.0644 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a significant decline. The soybean meal production was 1.631 million tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1676 million tons, a month - on - month increase, remaining at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 3.816 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills was 9.45 days, a continuous month - on - month increase and at a high level in recent years [5] 3.6 Feed Demand - In the livestock farming sector, the pig price rebounded, and the farming losses narrowed. As of December 26, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, also narrowing. The productive sow capacity has been continuously reduced. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, reflecting weak restocking sentiment, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price is low, and the poultry farming has been in continuous losses, with an increase in culling. The inventory decreased slightly again in November and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious driving force for speculation in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to face pressure later. The news of delayed customs clearance in China is positive for the near - month contracts and positive spreads. Affected by the news, M05 is expected to be range - bound in the short term and may weaken later [7]. - In the supply side, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the US production area from August to September. The adjustment of exports has some uncertainties. The 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina has different situations, and the weather in the two countries has different impacts on sowing. In the demand side, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand, but the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies may affect the long - term supply. In the inventory side, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January [6][7]. Summary by Related Content Basis and Spread Data - On December 10, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 96, down 16; the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 36, down 16; in Rizhao it was 6, down 6; in Zhangjiagang it was - 4, down 36; in Dongguan it was - 34, down 36; in Zhanjiang it was - 24, down 36; in Fangcheng it was - 44, down 36. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 34, down 28. The M1 - 5 spread was 290, up 45 [4]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 646, down 4 [5]. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0269, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 143, up 3. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 245 yuan/ton [5]. - The report shows the trends of Brazilian soybean CNF premium and imported soybean crushing margin in 2025, as well as the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans, feed enterprises' soybean meal, and major domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and the开机 and压榨情况 (start - up rate and crushing volume) of major domestic oil mills [5]. Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The USDA's forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The Brazilian new - crop output in 25/26 is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. The weather in Brazil and Argentina has different impacts on sowing. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have seasonal inventory depletion, and the supply of domestic soybean meal in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6][7]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies to control pig inventories and weights may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the downstream trading of soybean meal is normal recently [7]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased slightly this week [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal is likely to continue its oscillating trend. The soybean No. 1 contract will experience an oscillatory rebound, while the soybean meal contract will maintain an oscillatory state. This is due to a slight reduction in domestic soybean production, a likely return to normal imports of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, an increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [4][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Soybean No. 1 and Soybean Meal Contracts - The soybean No. 2601 contract is in an oscillatory adjustment. The spot price has slightly increased, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans rising from 4,040 yuan/ton to around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No. 1 oscillates, and the futures price maintains a premium [4]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is also in an oscillatory adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal has slightly decreased, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang dropping from 3,000 yuan/ton to around 2,980 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates, and the futures price maintains a slight premium [4]. Supply - Side Analysis - **Domestic Soybean Production and Inventory**: Domestic soybean production has decreased, and inventory is being depleted. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' November report, poor weather in North China has led to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean production has been slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 21, the remaining soybean stocks in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong have decreased, and the inventory in Heilongjiang is lower than the same period in previous years, with faster sales [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Port Inventory**: In October, domestic soybean imports were 9.48 million tons, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, imports of US soybeans will return to normal. However, due to the 10% basic tariff, the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 21, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, while port soybean inventory has decreased [4]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report has adjusted down the yield and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The South American production remains unchanged, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is waiting for China's soybean purchases to be gradually implemented [5]. - **Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory has further increased. With the large - scale import of US soybeans and a significant decrease in the cost of Brazilian soybeans, the profit margin of oil mills has improved. As of November 21, the operating rate of oil mills was 64.22%, the soybean crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, the soybean meal production was 1.844 million tons, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1515 million tons, all showing an upward trend. The unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 4.5951 million tons, a decrease from the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 7.98 days, also showing a decline [5][6]. Demand - Side Analysis - **Feed Demand**: Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, pig prices are low, and farming is suffering significant losses. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory is slow. In the poultry sector, egg prices have dropped, and farming is in a continuous loss state, with an increase in culling. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the oil mill's soybean crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking pace is slow, so the soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak. The rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and ports continues to decline, but the weakening aquaculture demand restricts the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market [40]. - In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving factors for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures and spot prices of major feed and aquaculture products in China have shown different trends. The futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and live pigs have declined, while the futures price of eggs has increased. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and eggs have decreased, while the spot price of corn has increased slightly, and the spot price of live pigs has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Cost Side** - Weather: In the next 10 - 15 days, North America will be warm and humid, while key agricultural areas in South America, especially southern Brazil and Argentina, face drought risks, which may affect the growth of crops such as corn and soybeans [10]. - US Soybeans: The US soybean harvest progress is slower than in previous years. As of November 16, the US soybean harvest progress was 95%, behind the 98% in the same period in 2025 and the five - year average of 96% [10]. - Brazil: Brazil's soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, 101% higher than in November 2025 [10]. - Argentina: As of November 20, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 25%, up from 15% last week but lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Supply** - Import: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. China imported 7.12 million tons from Brazil (a 28.8% year - on - year increase) and 1.57 million tons from Argentina (a 15.4% year - on - year increase). Since the beginning of 2025, China has imported 16.82 million tons of soybeans from the US, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [10]. - Pressing: The weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills decreased to 2.4234 million tons as of November 14, and the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton as of November 20, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week [25][26]. - **Demand** - Pressing: The operating rate of oil mills this week increased to 66%, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons and still needs to be reduced [10]. - Transaction: On November 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills was 285,200 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons from the previous trading day [10]. - **Inventory** - Oil Mill Inventory: In the 46th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of November 20, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 490.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 500.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of November 20, the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 14, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4234 million tons, a decrease of 248,500 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 60%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week [25][26]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.2379 million tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week. As of November 14, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 954,500 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of November 14, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 76,900 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report shows the historical data of rapeseed imports, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrivals at domestic pressing plants [36]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report presents data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak, and the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market will be restricted [40]. - Medium - to - long - term: Changes in trade relations are the key factors affecting the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings The focus includes产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with the northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. Under the agreement, China may increase the import of US soybeans, resulting in a very sufficient soybean supply. The oil mill operating rate drops again, easing the pressure on soybean meal inventory. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of soybean meal will remain volatile [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The soybean No. 2601 contract fluctuates sharply around 4150, with intense long - short competition. The spot price is stable, and the market price of Fujin soybeans is around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands. The soybean meal 01 contract fluctuates around 3050. The spot price of soybean meal rises slightly, from 2970 yuan/ton to around 2990 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang. The basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands [4]. Domestic Production - The quality of domestic soybeans differentiates, and the output decreases slightly. According to the November report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, poor weather in North China leads to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean output is slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 7, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang drops to 90%; in Anhui, it drops to 89%; in Henan, it rises to 90%; in Shandong, it rises to 95%. The high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang are in high demand [4]. Import Situation - The import of domestic soybeans declines in October, with 9.48 million tons imported, a 26% month - on - month decrease and a 17.2% year - on - year increase. China and the US reach an agricultural product agreement, with China set to import tens of millions of tons of US soybeans and purchase at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. Coupled with the previous over - purchase of South American soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be very sufficient. Although China and the US have mutually reduced taxes, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the import cost of US soybeans is not low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans decreases, with great cost advantages. As of November 7, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills is 2.4375 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase; the port soybean inventory is 10.334 million tons, a month - on - month increase to a new high in recent years [5]. US Soybean Market - US soybeans fluctuate at a high level. The soybean import agreement between China and the US boosts US soybeans. The US government may end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the November supply - demand report. Currently, US soybeans may be at the end of the harvest season. Attention should be paid to the report's feedback on the trade agreement [5]. Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills drops again, and the soybean meal inventory decreases. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing declines due to high costs. As of November 7, the operating rate of oil mills is 49.67%, a significant month - on - month drop; the soybean crushing volume is 1.8057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills is 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase, at a high level in recent years. The soybean meal production is 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 998,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal are 6.0015 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills are 7.75 days, a month - on - month decrease [5][6]. Feed Demand - The feed demand is strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and the farming continues to incur losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming is - 175.54 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 89.21 yuan per head. Currently, the adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of reproductive sows is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms also decreases slightly, but the piglet production increases slightly, and the piglet sales decline; the phenomena of over - fattening and secondary fattening increase. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory is 436.8 million, a 29% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 23% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, the egg price drops again, the farming continues to incur losses, the culling of poultry increases, the inventory in October decreases slightly month - on - month, and it may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. The feed demand is strong [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean supply in China will not be in short - supply in Q1 2026. The soybean market is affected by factors such as domestic and foreign trade agreements, harvest conditions, and oil - mill operations. The price of soybeans and the inventory of soybean meal are under the influence of multiple factors, with soybeans expected to fluctuate strongly and soybean meal expected to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The DCE Soybean No.1 2601 contract rebounded to around 4140 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4040 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans fluctuated strongly, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The DCE Soybean Meal 01 contract rebounded to around 3060 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal rebounded, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rising from 2910 yuan/ton to around 2970 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, and the futures price maintained a small premium [4]. Supply - Side Factors - **Domestic Harvest**: The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end, with quality differentiation. Northeast soybeans are popular. As of October 31, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans dropped to 92%, while that of Anhui, Henan, and Shandong increased to 90%, 80%, and 90% respectively [4]. - **Import Situation**: China and the US have reached an agricultural product agreement. China will purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. After the China - US trade agreement, the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and China has additionally ordered 20 ships of Brazilian soybeans, with 10 ships to be shipped in December. Although some enterprises have bought US soybeans, due to high tariffs, large - scale imports are not expected before the tariff reduction. As of October 31, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.885 million tons, a month - on - month decline, and the port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, also a month - on - month decline but still at a high level [5]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US - China soybean import agreement has boosted the price of US soybeans. The US government shutdown has broken the previous record, and the US Department of Agriculture is expected to release the November supply - demand report. The cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariff reduction [5]. Oil - Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly, but the inventory of soybean meal increased again. As of October 31, the operating rate of oil mills was 61.99%, a month - on - month decline; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.108 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The output of soybean meal was 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1.153 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 4.205 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.02 days, a slight month - on - month increase [6]. Demand - Side Factors - The demand for feed is relatively strong. In the breeding industry, the pig price has rebounded from a low level, and the loss of breeding has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the loss was narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.33 yuan per head, and the loss was also narrowing. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the inventory of reproductive sows in the country was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has dropped again, and egg - laying hens are in a loss state, but the inventory in September still increased to a historical high. The demand for feed is strong [6]. Market Outlook - The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end. With quality differentiation, Northeast soybeans are popular. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient due to imports. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure persists. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, affected by the cost increase of US soybeans and the pressure of increased supply [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report in September showed higher-than-expected yield, production, and inventory estimates for US soybeans, with a neutral to bearish impact. The overall dry and rainy conditions in the US soybean-producing areas were unfavorable for the growth of late-sown soybeans but beneficial for the harvest of early-sown soybeans. The US soybean harvest continued to progress, but US soybean exports remained weak. The Conab report in Brazil indicated that the estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 177.67 million tons. Multiple bearish factors pressured US soybeans to fluctuate lower. In China, the sufficient arrival of soybeans in September supported domestic supply, and the oil mill operating rate remained at a high level. Meanwhile, the recent downstream replenishment was sluggish, resulting in a loose supply and demand situation for soybean meal in the spot market, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills continued to accumulate. The decline in US soybeans led to a weak cost of imported soybeans. Coupled with the large-scale procurement of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal in China in September, the gap in China's soybean meal for the far month decreased, and the soybean meal price fluctuated lower. It is still necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US tariff negotiation situation in the future. China's soybean meal is still bearish, but the short-term decline may be limited, and the Dalian soybean meal will continue the bottoming trend. The strategy is to wait and see temporarily [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1000.75 cents per bushel, down 52.25 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.96%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan per ton, down 127 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.16% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - The US soybean balance sheet is neutral to bearish, with the planting area increased by 200,000 to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 0.1 to 53.5 bushels per acre, the production increased by 9 million to 4.301 billion bushels, the crush increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the exports decreased by 20 million to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased by 10 million to 300 million bushels [10][17]. - The US soybean-producing areas are experiencing high temperatures and little rain. In the next two weeks, there will be a lack of rainfall and high temperatures in the US soybean-producing areas. As of October 3, about 37% of the US soybean-producing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year. As of the week of September 28, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared with 9% in the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 20%. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared with 61% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year [10][20]. - US soybean exports are relatively low. As of the week of September 18, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 724,000 tons, compared with 923,000 tons in the previous week. The net sales of soybeans for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, compared with 2,000 tons in the previous week [10][25]. - Brazilian soybean premiums are oscillating at high levels. The estimated exports of Brazilian soybeans in October are 7.12 million tons, an increase of 2.69 million tons year-on-year. As the Brazilian soybean inventory decreases, the near-month soybean premiums in Brazil are oscillating at high levels [10][30]. - **Supply** - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 609,000 tons from July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year-on-year [10][33]. - **Demand** - In September, the soybean meal crush decreased to 9.359 million tons, a decrease of 18.37% month-on-month and an increase of 789,100 tons or 9.21% year-on-year. The soybean meal transactions decreased to 3.1313 million tons, a decrease of 35.44%, and the pick-up increased to 4.4047 million tons, an increase of 9.97% [10][40]. - **Inventory** - In the 39th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills across the country increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, an increase of 252,500 tons or 3.63% from the previous week and an increase of 905,100 tons or 14.38% year-on-year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons or 4.86% from the previous week and a decrease of 37,300 tons or 3.04% year-on-year [10][45]. 3.3 Spread Tracking - The report mentions the basis and spreads of soybean meal, including the regional basis of soybean meal (Jiangsu), the oil-meal ratio, the 1-5 spread of soybean meal, and the soybean meal-rapeseed meal spread, but specific data and analysis are not provided [46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term market sentiment being weak. It is recommended to observe cautiously and pay attention to changes in the premium and discount quotes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Due to less rainfall in the production areas recently, the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline, and there may be room for a subsequent reduction in US soybean yield per unit [8]. - In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start decreasing, but the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain abundant in the fourth quarter. Currently, the purchasing progress for November - January is slow, and the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, with the source of supplementation yet to be determined [8]. Demand - Short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry in breeding is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply [8]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year. It is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term [8]. - The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [8]. Market Performance - Affected by Argentina's zero - tariff on soybean exports, domestic purchasing has increased. With the pressure of hedging and speculative positions, the soybean meal futures market has dropped significantly today [8].