此前，在美国新一季大豆出口开启后，相当长的一段时间内未有对华销售或出货的记录，《纽约时报》 9月底更是指出，自今年5月以来，中方没有购买过任何美国大豆。 咨询公司AgResource称，中国进口商已从美国购入7到10船大豆，其中一些将在明年1月装运，另一些则 计划在明年6月或更晚装运。 彭博社指出，大豆一直是中美贸易紧张局势的焦点议题，中国则是世界上最大的大豆进口国，中方暂停 采购美国大豆的做法，给美国种植户带来了压力，也让中方在关税博弈中占据了关键优势。 美国威斯康星州沃尔沃斯，田间正在收割的大豆。IC photo 【文/观察者网 熊超然】"受中国加大大豆采购力度迹象的提振，大豆期货价格大幅上涨，此前这一采购 一度停滞，如今给美国农民带来了希望。" 彭博社当地时间11月17日报道称，美国芝加哥期货交易所的大豆期货价格当天一度上涨3.2%，创下17 个月以来的新高。此前，美国总统特朗普曾于当地时间11月14日告诉记者，"中方正在采购大豆"，并迫 不及待地称，"这些采购可能在（明年）春季之前就开始"。 美国财政部长贝森特前一天在接受福克斯新闻网采访时则称，他相信中方会履行协议。"他们已经开始 购买大豆了，"他说 ...

北京青年报2025-11-13 15:54:50 来源 | 环球网 编辑 | 杜小溪 杨家瑞 11月13日下午，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。有媒体就中美大豆贸易相关问题提问。 对此，商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，近日商务部已就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排发布了相关消息， 介绍了磋商达成的主要成果共识，其中包括农产品贸易。何亚东说，中国是全球农产品贸易的重要参与 者，将继续秉持开放合作的态度，与全球贸易伙伴持续深化互利合作，共同维护开放、稳定、可持续的 全球贸易体系。 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the weak market and the fluctuating decline of the oil and fat sector [1] - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.81% to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract dropped 3.92% to 8,764 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract decreased 3.47% to 9,422 yuan/ton [5][29] - In the medium term, the market will focus on the actual palm oil production changes in Southeast Asian producing areas, the demand of major consumer countries, and the final implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Without clear positive news, the oil and fat sector is expected to face pressure [8][30] Group 2: Important Information - Palm oil: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% increase from the previous month. The Malaysian palm oil price dropped 4.86%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 million tons [6][29] - Soybean oil: China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons annually for the next three years. Southeast Asian countries also plan to buy 19 million tons of US soybeans. The US soybean price rose 5.14% this week [7][30] Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12] Group 4: Other Data - As of October 24, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 67,000 tons to 1.484 million tons. On October 29, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 19,000 tons to 639,000 tons [15] - As of October 31, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,402,200 tons [18] - As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 242 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [19] - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 64 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [20] - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 358 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]

Report Information - Report Title: Cost Drives Soybean Meal Higher, Poor Demand Leads to Decline in Edible Oils - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Edible Oils and Oilseeds [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is driven up by cost factors, while the price of edible oils drops due to poor demand [2]. - The export of US soybeans is expected to shift from speculation to actual implementation, and the pace of China's procurement will be a key factor affecting the market [104]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in October, and the B50 policy in Indonesia remains uncertain, putting pressure on the international edible oil market [105]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Review - CBOT soybeans rose significantly this week. Positive news about China's potential purchase of US soybeans boosted market sentiment, and the main contract broke through the 1100 - cent per bushel mark [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market also trended higher. Initially, it was under pressure due to supply concerns, but later shifted to cost - driven by the rise of CBOT soybeans. The main contract tried to break through 3000 yuan per ton several times [6]. - The increase in spot prices was less than that of futures. High inventory and weak downstream demand (such as the continuous decline in hog prices) put pressure on the market, and the basis declined significantly [6]. 2. US Market - US Soybean Export - As of October 23, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. 3. South American Weather - The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather. As of Friday, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state in Brazil reached 60.05% of the expected area, higher than last year and the five - year average [24]. - As of October 23, the 2025/26 soybean sowing progress in Brazil reached 36%. Overall, the weather last week was favorable for sowing, but there were abnormal rainfall and high - temperature weather in the central - western region [24]. 4. Domestic Market - Inventory and Profit - Domestic port soybean inventory increased to 811.27 tons this weekend, and the theoretical available days for crushing were 24 days [30]. - Both spot and futures crushing margins were in a loss situation, especially the futures crushing margin loss widened [30]. - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased this week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 12.5 tons to 105.2 tons, a 13.48% increase from last week [34]. 5. Rapeseed Meal - The operating rate of rapeseed processing plants decreased significantly this week, and the weekly crushing volume decreased from 1.2 tons to 0.4 tons [43]. - The inventory of rapeseed meal remained at 0.8 tons, and the contract volume decreased by 0.1 tons to 0.7 tons, a 17.65% decrease from last week [43]. Part 2: Edible Oils Market Analysis 1. Market Review - US soybean oil oscillated downward this week. The rise of US soybean meal led to active closing of the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage, and the decline of international crude oil and uncertain demand for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry also put pressure on the price [49]. - Malaysian palm oil fell more significantly. The increase in production and decline in exports, along with the slowdown in demand from major importers like India, led to a continuous decline in prices [49]. - Domestic palm oil led the decline in the edible oil market, while soybean oil declined relatively less and remained in an oscillating range [49]. 2. International Edible Oil Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and the output increased by 2.78% month - on - month [52]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 showed different trends according to different institutions' data, with AmSpec reporting a 0.27% month - on - month decrease and SGS reporting a 23.8% increase compared to the same period last month [52]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 - 57 million tons [52]. 3. Domestic Edible Oil Inventory - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China increased by 7.42 tons to 263.10 tons, a 2.90% increase from last week and a 17.39% increase year - on - year [67]. - The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased, with soybean oil increasing by 6.74 tons to 148.45 tons, a 4.76% increase from last week [67]. 4. Edible Oil Basis and Spread - The basis of different edible oils showed different trends, and the futures spread between different edible oils also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread rebounded significantly this week [81]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bearish [103]. - For soybean oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For palm oil, short - term indicators are bearish, medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bullish [103]. - For rapeseed oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [103]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: In the international market, the export of US soybeans will shift from speculation to actual implementation, and China's procurement pace is crucial. In the domestic market, high inventory, low demand, and losses in crushing margins may limit the upside potential of soybean meal prices [104]. - Edible Oils: In the international market, the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy will put pressure on the market. In the domestic market, edible oils are following the international trend, and the market is waiting for new positive news [105].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a critical situation as China, its largest buyer, has not placed any orders during the harvest season, which is essential for the livelihoods of American farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Caleb Lagrange, president of the American Soybean Association, highlighted that the current harvest season is dire, with China placing zero orders for U.S. soybeans, which is alarming for the industry [1]. - The U.S. soybean industry relies heavily on exports, with an average of 28% of U.S. soybeans exported to China before 2018, accounting for 60% of total exports during that period [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Lagrange emphasized that many farmers, including himself, have no other sources of income outside of farming, making the loss of their largest customer extremely detrimental [3]. - Due to tariffs, U.S. soybeans are priced 20% higher than South American competitors, reducing their competitiveness in the global market [3]. Group 3: Urgency for Action - Lagrange called for immediate action from President Trump to secure the Chinese market, stressing that delays could lead to a shift towards Brazilian soybeans, which will begin harvesting in January and February [3]. - A letter sent to Trump on August 19 indicated that U.S. soybean farmers are under significant financial pressure as the harvest season approaches, and the longer negotiations with China take, the more severe the impact on farmers will be [3].

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a critical situation as China, its largest buyer, has placed zero orders during the harvest season, which is alarming for farmers [1][2] - Caleb Lagrange, president of the American Soybean Association, emphasizes the urgent need for strong market opportunities, particularly in China, to sustain the livelihoods of U.S. farmers [1][2] Industry Impact - The absence of Chinese orders is described as a severe threat to the financial stability of U.S. soybean farmers, with many relying solely on farming for income [2] - U.S. soybeans are currently at a price disadvantage compared to South American competitors due to tariffs, being approximately 20% more expensive, which undermines their competitiveness in the global market [2] Market Dynamics - Historically, prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybean production was exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [2] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, the expectation is to export nearly 25 million tons of soybeans to China, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [2]

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight weekly decline in prices and an increase in open interest, indicating mixed market sentiment [1][2]. Market Summary - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3055 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of -1.26% [1]. - The trading range for soybean meal futures during the week was between 3027 CNY/ton and 3128 CNY/ton, with an opening price of 3094 CNY/ton [1]. - On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country reached 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Export and Pricing Information - The USDA reported that for the week ending August 21, 2024/2025 soybean meal net export sales were 47,000 tons, slightly up from 46,000 tons the previous week [2]. - For the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were reported at 215,000 tons, an increase from 176,000 tons the prior week [2]. - FOB Rotterdam prices for high-protein soybean meal for November delivery fell by $2/ton, reaching the lowest level since August 12 [2]. Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures noted an increase in soybean meal inventory and a rise in the good-to-excellent rating of U.S. soybeans, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook, but limited downside due to U.S.-China trade cost support [3]. - Guohai Futures highlighted a consensus expectation of a supply-demand gap due to U.S.-China trade developments and the potential for state reserves to auction imported soybeans [3]. - Short-term factors such as rising costs and seasonal demand strength are expected to support soybean meal prices, while medium-term upward potential remains constrained [3].