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铁矿石:关税影响边际减弱,建议反弹做空为主
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 05:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the marginal impact of "reciprocal tariffs" is weakening, and there is an expectation of an incremental fiscal and monetary policy under the influence of tariffs. The supply - demand of iron ore in April is expected to remain loose. If there is a short - term rebound, it is still a good opportunity to short [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - In the short term, "reciprocal tariffs" are continuously escalating, and China has quickly implemented counter - measures. The marginal impact of tariffs is weakening, and there is an expected short - term over - decline and rebound repair in commodities [2]. Supply - Mainstream mines are expected to have a seasonal decline after the end - of - quarter rush, with a 1 - week decline in shipping volume. Non - mainstream mines remain relatively weak, and domestic mines are slowly recovering. The spot price has dropped significantly under the influence of tariffs but is still above $90/ton, and the short - term price has no significant impact on supply contraction [2]. Demand - Overall demand is in a recovery phase. In April, domestic iron ore demand still has some room to rise, with the expected maximum daily iron - water production reaching 2.4 million tons (Steel Union's data). However, the expected height of iron - water may not be reached due to tariff impacts [3]. Inventory - The absolute and relative levels of factory inventory are lower than last year and are declining. With weak pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, the inventory is expected to rise in April but at a slow rate. The relatively high absolute inventory level puts pressure on prices [4]. Strategy - Short at high prices or sell call options [4]