运营优衣库的迅销集团预计2026财年合并净利润将小幅增长，达到4350亿日元。迅销正将增 长重心从中国市场转向其他地区，美国的重要性不断上升。该公司通过涨价来抵消关税的影 响，但也存在引发消费下滑的风险…… 运营优衣库的迅销集团于10月9日发布消息称，预计2026财年（截至2026年8月）合并净利 润（国际会计准则）将较上财年小幅增长，达到4350亿日元。在预计连续6年刷新最高利润 的情况下，令人担忧的是将全面受到特朗普关税影响的北美业务。该公司打算通过涨价来抵 消关税的影响，但同时也隐藏着在全球最大市场引发消费下滑的风险。 预计2026财年销售收益（相当于销售额）将增长10%，达到3.75万亿日元。 2025财年（截至2025年8月）北美业务的营业收入为2711亿日元，同比增长25%。在美 国，提高关税前的库存已基本见底。在迅销在东京都内召开的记者会上，首席财务官 （CFO）冈崎健表示："已通过调整价格消化了关税导致的成本上升"，同时透露称，已对部 分商品实施涨价。 迅销此前曾就2025财年的"业务利润"（销售收益减去销售成本、销售费用和管理费用后计算 得出）预测，关税将成为导致其降低约25亿日元的主要原因 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total consolidated revenue increased by $4.5 million or 5.9% compared to the prior year, with a 7.3% increase when excluding sales from NOAA Home [14] - Gross margin improved by 320 basis points to 56.2%, driven by better wholesale margins, slightly offset by lower retail margins [14] - Operating income was $600,000 or 0.7% of sales, a significant improvement from a loss of $6.4 million in the same quarter last year [15] - Diluted earnings per share were $0.09, compared to a loss of $0.52 in the prior year quarter [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wholesale net sales increased by $3 million or 6.2%, with a 9.2% increase in shipments to the retail store network [15] - Retail net sales increased by $4.6 million or 9.8%, although gross margin declined by 40 basis points due to lower margins on in-line and clearance goods [17] - Orders from corporate and licensed stores grew by 5.9%, driven by a 9.8% increase in company-owned retail stores [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Outdoor sales increased by 18%, while written retail sales rose by 2.4% in the quarter [10] - Website traffic declined slightly, but conversion rates improved by 18% due to enhancements in the online shopping experience [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation in product lines, aggressive marketing initiatives, and leveraging technology to adapt to the current market challenges [4] - Plans to emphasize the value of the Custom Studio program and expand its locations [12] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet while continuing to pay dividends and repurchase shares [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the ongoing challenges in the housing market and consumer caution regarding significant investments in home furnishings [5] - The company remains optimistic about the potential for market share gains due to its domestic manufacturing capabilities [43] - Management expressed caution regarding future gross margin improvements, indicating that margins may stabilize in the 55-56% range [28] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its projected annual capital investment range to $5 million to $7 million [18] - The board approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, maintaining a strong liquidity position with no outstanding debt [13][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did August see the same case with written sales as delivered sales? - Management confirmed that August was the best month for both wholesale and retail orders, with positive momentum continuing into September [24] Question: What is the extent of the pricing increase due to tariffs? - Management indicated that surcharges were levied on products from Vietnam and India, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff and India a 50% tariff [26] Question: How should future gross margins be viewed? - Management suggested that gross margins are expected to stabilize around the current levels, with slight improvements possible but not dramatic [28] Question: What is the outlook for new product introductions? - Management noted a focus on a more strategic introduction of new products, with positive feedback on recent launches [29] Question: What is the expected net tariff impact on financials this year? - Management stated that quantifying the net tariff impact is challenging due to the complexity of materials and tariffs involved [38] Question: When will free cash flow cover the dividend? - Management expressed confidence that free cash flow will cover the dividend again soon, particularly in the typically strong fourth quarter [44][45]

来源：滚动播报 美联储柯林斯：关税影响如何显现仍"为时尚早"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Five Below reported strong Q2 fiscal 2025 results, exceeding estimates for both earnings and sales, and raised its fiscal 2025 outlook, indicating positive growth momentum [2][12]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 were 81 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents, and reflecting a 50% increase from 54 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Net sales reached $1.03 billion, a 23.7% year-over-year increase, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $997 million [3]. - Comparable sales increased by 12.4% year over year, driven by an 8.7% rise in comparable transactions and a 3.4% increase in average ticket size [4]. Margins and Costs - Adjusted gross profit grew 26.2% year over year to $343.3 million, with an adjusted gross margin increase of approximately 60 basis points to 33.4% [5]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs rose 28.3% to $242.3 million, with SG&A as a percentage of net sales increasing by approximately 90 basis points to 23.6% [5]. Store Expansion - The company opened 32 net new stores, bringing the total to 1,858 stores across 44 states, marking an 11.5% increase from the previous year [8]. - Plans are in place to open 150 additional stores by the end of fiscal 2025, aiming for a total of 1,921 stores [8]. Future Guidance - For Q3 fiscal 2025, net sales are projected between $950 million and $970 million, indicating a 5-7% increase in comparable sales [9]. - The company expects net income to fall between $5 million and $12 million, with adjusted net income projected between $7 million and $13 million [11]. - Fiscal 2025 net sales are now projected to be $4.44-$4.52 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of $4.33-$4.42 billion [12]. Financial Outlook - The midpoint of the operating margin guidance has increased by about 60 basis points to 7.9%, although a year-over-year decline of approximately 130 basis points is expected due to tariff and compensation pressures [13]. - Net income is forecasted between $253 million and $275 million, with adjusted net income projected between $264 million and $286 million, both reflecting upward adjustments from previous estimates [14]. - Earnings per share are expected to be $4.56-$4.96, up from the prior range of $4.04-$4.51 [15]. Market Sentiment - Since the earnings release, there has been a significant upward trend in estimates, with a consensus estimate shift of 3512.5% [16]. - Five Below currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return from the stock in the coming months [18].

路透社9月22日报道，据联合国开发计划署估计，美国自8月起征收的关税可能导 致越南对美国的出口下降超过250亿美元，降幅达到19.2%，使越南成为东南亚受灾最 严重的国家。美国贸易数据显示，越南去年是全球第六大对美出口国，向美国出口了 价值1365亿美元的商品。越南海关部门的数据显示，越南8月对其最大市场美国的出口 较7月份下降了2%，其中鞋类出口下降了5.5%。越南是全球第二大鞋类供应国，此前， 关税生效前的出口曾出现激增。对美国出口下降将导致越南国内生产总值减少约5%， 尽管关税的影响可能需要数年时间才能完全体现。联合国开发计划署的报告称，预计 东南亚国家对美出口下降的平均幅度约为9.7%，其中泰国对美国的出口下降12.7%，马 来西亚下降10.4%，印度尼西亚下降6.4%。 （原标题：美国关税措施或致使越南损失250亿美元） ...

Summary of Huabao New Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabao New Energy - **Industry**: Energy Storage Solutions Key Points Financial Performance - In 2023, Huabao New Energy experienced a revenue decline of **27.7%** and reported a loss, primarily due to inventory destocking [2][3] - The company expects to complete inventory destocking by the first half of 2024, with new products projected to account for **75%** of sales in the second half of 2024, driving significant market share growth [2][4] - Revenue growth is anticipated to be **65%** in Q2 2025, although net profit margin is expected to drop to single digits due to high tariffs [2][10] Product Lines - Huabao New Energy's product lines include: 1. **Portable Energy Storage**: Core business, primarily in the US and Japan, used for outdoor activities and emergency backup [7][8] 2. **Mobile Home Energy Storage**: Suitable for household power supply, priced lower than large home storage systems, also focused on the US and Japan [7][8] 3. **Balcony Solar Storage**: Targeted at the European market, designed for energy savings through photovoltaic systems [7][8] Market Dynamics - The portable energy storage market is growing rapidly, with Huabao holding approximately **10%** global market share, and over **30%** in the US online market [14] - The balcony solar storage industry is in a growth phase, with Germany's relaxed policies stimulating market demand, potentially creating a market space of **$10-20 billion** annually [5][13] - The mobile home storage market is projected to generate **$4 million** in revenue this year, with expectations to reach **$15 million** next year [19] Regional Performance - The US market accounts for about **50%** of the company's environmental performance business, while Japan accounts for **30%** and Europe has increased from **5%** to **10%** in market share [11] - The European market has seen a doubling in growth due to the introduction of new products and recruitment of specialized talent [11][13] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow by **50%** from 2025 to 2026, with profit margins anticipated to recover to over **8%** [6][21] - The company plans to enhance its product line to meet diverse market demands in the US, Japan, and Europe, aiming to improve profit margins and solidify its industry position [9][22] Tariff Impact - High tariffs significantly impacted profit margins in Q2, but a reduction to **40.7%** in Q3, along with cost control measures, is expected to improve profitability [21] - The release of Southeast Asian production capacity is anticipated to further reduce costs and improve net profit margins [21] Conclusion - Overall, Huabao New Energy is positioned for significant growth, driven by strong brand power, effective new product launches, and resolution of tariff issues, indicating a positive future performance outlook [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment, with recent comments from Chairman Powell indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [1][2][3]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a deceleration in job growth, leading to heightened risks in the labor market [2][5]. - Inflation has recently risen and remains at a high level, influenced by tariff news, although long-term inflation expectations are still aligned with the Fed's 2% target [2][3]. Monetary Policy Stance - Powell indicated that even after the recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, the Fed's policy stance remains slightly restrictive [3][4]. - The Fed's policy is not on a preset path and will continue to adapt based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions [3][4]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - There are significant differences among Fed officials regarding the outlook for interest rates, with Vice Chair Bowman emphasizing the need to address labor market issues without overemphasizing inflation risks [5][6]. - Bowman expressed concerns about the Fed lagging in responding to deteriorating labor market conditions and suggested a proactive approach to policy adjustments [6]. - In contrast, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urged caution regarding further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation above target levels [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is seen as appropriate, with potential for further cuts by the end of the year, totaling 75 basis points [2][5]. Rate Cuts and Future Projections - The Fed's strategy includes monitoring inflation and job numbers, allowing for flexibility in future rate adjustments [3][6]. - Aiming for a total of 100 basis points in cuts within the next year, with a possibility of reaching neutral territory by the end of the first quarter [5]. Inflation Concerns - Current inflation remains in the high 2% range, and the Fed seeks assurance that it will trend down to the target of 2% [6][19]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered limited, as the foreign goods portion in the U.S. consumption basket is relatively small [8]. Market Confidence and Interest Rates - The credibility of the Fed is crucial for maintaining lower long-term interest rates, as market confidence in the Fed's policies influences the yield curve [10][11]. - Political pressure to lower rates quickly could undermine the Fed's control over long-term rates, leading to increased inflation risk premiums [14][15]. Neutral Rate and Economic Growth - The neutral federal funds rate is estimated to be around 3% to 3.25%, while some argue it could be 100 basis points lower, providing more maneuvering room for the Fed [17][18]. - Anticipated economic growth in the coming years may add inflationary pressure, necessitating careful policy considerations [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not see a need for further rate cuts this year, citing concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. - Cleveland Fed President Hammack emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy to avoid overheating the economy, expressing significant worries about inflation [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Bostic predicts the core inflation rate will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by year-end, with unemployment slightly increasing to 4.5% [3][4]. - Hammack notes that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years and may remain elevated in the coming years [5]. - Musalem highlights that while tariffs have not had the expected impact on prices, other factors are pushing inflation higher, necessitating continued vigilance from the Fed [5]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Bostic acknowledges that while there are risks to the labor market, he does not believe it is currently in crisis, attributing some hiring slowdowns to labor supply constraints [4]. - Hammack points out that despite recent employment growth slowing, the labor market remains strong, as evidenced by low layoff numbers and a low unemployment rate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes that further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares a similar cautious stance, indicating that he sees no reason for further cuts this year due to concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Musalem describes the recent rate cut as a preventive measure to support the labor market and prevent further weakness, while emphasizing the need for caution in monetary policy [3]. - Bostic predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by the end of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5% [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Both officials mention the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, with Musalem noting that while tariff effects have been less than expected, other factors are pushing inflation higher [5]. - Bostic observes that the cost increases driven by tariffs have been milder than initially predicted, but warns that these buffers may diminish in the coming months, leading to sustained price pressures [5].