Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Short - term fluctuations may occur due to Trump's tariff threat and high market valuations, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Investors who have reduced their positions can wait and look for better opportunities, while those who haven't can lock their positions in a timely manner [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market has been weak in the second and third quarters due to various negative factors, the fundamentals still provide support, and short - term treasury bonds may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: On October 10, A - shares adjusted significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points again, and the ChiNext and STAR Markets both slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.94% [6]. - **Core View**: Short - term fluctuations are possible, but a panic - selling like that in April is less likely. Investors with reduced positions can wait, and those without can lock positions [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [6]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to operate in a volatile manner [6]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields declined significantly, with the long - end yields falling more, and the yield curve flattened significantly. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by more than 5bps [11]. - **Core View**: The bond market was affected by multiple negative factors in the second and third quarters, but the fundamentals still support it. Short - term treasury bonds may fluctuate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. Supply and demand improved, and raw material inventories were replenished, which supported the PMI. Supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The improvement in external and domestic demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and the "anti - involution" policy [18]. - **CPI**: In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was flat. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.9%, and the month - on - month was flat. Although there were positive changes in prices, domestic demand was still weak, and the international trade environment was uncertain [21]. - **Import and Export**: In August, exports maintained a resilient growth with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The growth rate of general trade exports declined, while that of processing trade exports increased. The growth rate of electromechanical products and labor - intensive products declined, while that of high - tech products increased. Imports declined, and the trade surplus widened to $102.33 billion [23]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits** - **Profit and Revenue Growth**: In August, both profit and revenue growth rates rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded to 20.4%, and the revenue growth rate was 1.9% [27]. - **Structural Factors**: The rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. The revenue growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries increased, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined [30]. - **Inventory and Turnover**: At the end of August, the nominal and real inventory growth rates of industrial enterprises declined. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [33]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In August, the production intensity declined, especially in downstream industries. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and the service production index growth rate dropped to 5.6%. The export delivery value growth rate turned negative for the first time since 2024 [36]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all decreased. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1% [39]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of retail sales above a designated size dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption [42]. - **Social Financing** - **New Social Financing**: In August, the new social financing was 2.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 trillion yuan. Credit and government bonds were the main drags [46]. - **Credit Structure**: Resident credit increased positively, but medium - and long - term loans still increased less year - on - year. The new credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan [46]. - **Money Supply**: In August, the M0 growth rate declined to 11.7%, the M1 growth rate continued to rise to 6.0%, and the M2 growth rate remained flat at 8.8%. The growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.8%, and after excluding government bonds, it dropped to 5.9% [49].