Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]

11月20日，金价震荡加剧，盘中两度冲上4100美元，受美元强势及美联储降息预期降温，但市场预判12 月降息无望，金价盘中一度回落至4045美元，尾盘再度拉升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报 4076.7美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌0.53%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌0.76%。 昨晚9月非农就业报告发布，数据显示，美国新增就业人数达11.9万，明显高于预期。9月失业率意外升 至4.4%，为2021年10月以来最高。美国上周初请失业金人数下降8000人至22万人，续请失业金人数升 至4年新高。 混沌天成期货分析指出，美联储10月的会议纪要显示出严重分歧，本月在缺乏数据指引的情况下仍维持 分歧。美国劳工统计局表示，将不会发布10月非农就业报告，而是把相关的就业数据纳入11月报告并将 于12月16日发布，这一日期是在美联储今年最后一次会议之后。随着数据缺乏指引，美联储分歧加大， 市场的降息预期持续回落，基本不定价12月的降息（27%），这也严重抑制贵金属的走势。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

证券之星消息，11月14日多元金融板块较上一交易日下跌0.22%，瑞达期货领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3990.49，下跌0.97%。深证成指报收于13216.03，下跌1.93%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日多元金融板块主力资金净流入1008.41万元，游资资金净流出8657.8万元，散户 资金净流入7649.4万元。多元金融板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000958 | 电投产融 | 2.70 Z | 32.10% | -1.32 Z | -15.73% | -1.38 Z | -16.37% | | 603300 | 海南华铁 | 8595.07万 | 7.14% | 1295.77万 | 1.08% | -9890.84万 | -8.22% | | 000415 | 渤海租赁 | 3471.63万 | 11.53% | -2990.74万 | ...

证券之星消息，11月13日多元金融板块较上一交易日上涨0.92%，瑞达期货领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4029.5，上涨0.73%。深证成指报收于13476.52，上涨1.78%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002961 | 瑞达期货 | 26.50 | 8.08% | 34.20万 | 8.83亿 | | 603093 | 南大朗器 | 19.83 | 2.48% | 6.98万 | · 1.38亿 | | 002647 | *ST仁东 | 7.40 | 1.93% | 27.74万 | 2.06亿 | | 600927 | 永安期货 | 15.61 | 1.89% | 9.74万 | 1.51亿 | | 600053 | 九鼎投资 | 20.40 | 1.75% | 6.88万 | 1.40亿 | | 600816 | 建元信托 | 3.04 | 1.67% | 62.61万 | 1.89亿 | | 300773 | 拉卡拉 | 23.42 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on November 11, 2025, including the performance of major stock indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points difference in futures contract roll - over and its annualized costs. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On November 11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to close at 4002.76 points, with a trading volume of 858.362 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.03% to 13289.0 points, with a trading volume of 1135.224 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.3% with a trading volume of 404.867 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.71% with a trading volume of 338.598 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.63% with a trading volume of 118.061 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.91% with a trading volume of 477.629 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 dropped 22.46 points. Sectors such as power equipment and basic chemicals had a positive impact, while household appliances, computer, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 52.19 points, with computer and electronics sectors pulling the index down [2]. - The CSI 300 dropped 42.88 points, affected negatively by non - bank finance, communication, and electronics sectors [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 19.23 points. The banking sector had a positive impact, while non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.58, IM01 of - 140.81, IM02 of - 363.76, and IM03 of - 586.08 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 43.5, IC01 of - 109.76, IC02 of - 283.12, and IC03 of - 476.92 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 10.23, IF01 of - 25.19, IF02 of - 53.14, and IF03 of - 95.85 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.09, IH01 of - 3.3, IH02 of - 5.94, and IH03 of - 12.74 [13]. Stock Index Futures Contract Roll - over Points Difference and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over points difference and its annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are presented in the form of 15 - minute average values and corresponding annualized cost graphs [22][23][24].

1. Index Trends - On November 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to close at 4018.6 points, with a trading volume of 960.589 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to close at 13427.61 points, with a trading volume of 1213.865 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 433.798 billion yuan. Its opening price was 7568.75, closing price was 7563.25, the highest price was 7592.76, and the lowest price was 7515.68 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.22%, with a trading volume of 371.311 billion yuan. Its opening price was 7357.34, closing price was 7343.8, the highest price was 7384.79, and the lowest price was 7289.77 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.35%, with a trading volume of 593.977 billion yuan. Its opening price was 4688.12, closing price was 4695.05, the highest price was 4695.18, and the lowest price was 4654.21 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.51%, with a trading volume of 139.907 billion yuan. Its opening price was 3043.51, closing price was 3053.86, the highest price was 3054.55, and the lowest price was 3030.23 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 21.37 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as household appliances, pharmaceuticals and biotech, and basic chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 15.89 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotech, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery, electronics, and power equipment pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 16.26 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banks significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery, power equipment, and electronics pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.51 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banks significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery and electronics pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 57.03, IM01 had - 142.23, IM02 had - 361.89, and IM03 had - 580.67 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 43.2, IC01 had - 107.51, IC02 had - 277.1, and IC03 had - 467.73 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.52, IF01 had - 25.0, IF02 had - 54.69, and IF03 had - 98.5 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.02, IH01 had - 1.49, IH02 had - 5.36, and IH03 had - 11.46 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM, IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented in the report, including detailed values at different time points [20][21][22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market has short - term support, but there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 of next year. Consider short - side strategies after the oil price rebounds again [2]. - Precious metals may continue to build a high - level shock platform due to the lack of strong drivers [3]. - The upward momentum of the copper market in the short - term is decreasing. Consider buying put at - the - money/one - strike out - of - the - money options and selling call options with an execution price of 90,000 to reduce costs [4]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Be vigilant of capital turning [5]. - Other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [8][9][10]. Summary by Catalog Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspending production increase in Q1 of next year boosts market confidence. US government shutdown negotiation progress and geopolitical factors also affect the market. There is short - term support, but supply - demand surplus pressure remains [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term positive sentiment but weak medium - term upward support [22]. - **Asphalt**: Demand is weaker than expected, and social inventory has turned from lower to higher year - on - year. The market is bearish, and the price continues to decline [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamental conditions have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG price [24]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily lack strong drivers and may continue high - level shock [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The upward momentum is decreasing, and inventory has decreased. Consider short - term trading strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with macro - led strong sentiment and limited fundamental resonance [5]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and low inventory supports the external market. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market to rise [8]. - **Lead**: High - level shock, with the far - month contract's center of gravity expected to move up [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, and the stainless - steel market is sluggish [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, but demand is weak. Consider short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - **Alumina**: Supply surplus persists, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for now [6]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price has risen significantly, and the market sentiment has improved. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is expected to shrink more than demand, and the inventory may decrease. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price will continue to fluctuate due to the synchronous contraction of supply and demand [14]. - **Urea**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward price center [25]. - **Methanol**: It may continue to be weak in the short - term, but is easily affected by positive news due to low valuation [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a narrow - range shock at a low level. Pay attention to the port inventory build - up rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but the market is worried about the long - term situation, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand has improved temporarily, but the overall supply is loose, and the price is under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has high supply and weak demand, and may run at a low level. Caustic soda is in a weak operation [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply has recovered, and PTA has improved slightly. There is uncertainty in the short - to - medium - term, so it is advisable to wait and see [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply growth pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. Adopt a bearish view [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but is affected by raw material price increases. Bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. Building Materials Commodities - **Glass**: The price is falling, and the cost has increased. The profit has narrowed, and the daily melting has decreased. Pay attention to the end - of - year rush - work situation [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is in a strong shock in the short - term, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term due to high supply pressure [36]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 of next year. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Palm oil has high - inventory pressure in the short - term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for domestic rapeseed products [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [40]. - **Corn**: The futures price is rebounding at the bottom, but the supply is still loose in the future [41]. - **Pork**: The price may have a seasonal rebound in the short - term, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in H1 of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Try short - selling at high prices and observe the spot market [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen. The Zhengzhou cotton price is in a shock. Pay attention to the US cotton export data [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and pay attention to the sugar production forecast in Guangxi for the new season [45]. - **Apple**: The price is in a wide - range shock. Adopt a bearish strategy due to inventory concerns [46]. - **Timber**: The price is in a weak operation. Low inventory provides support, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Pulp**: The price has risen. The inventory has decreased, and the valuation is low. Consider buying at low prices [48]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes are differentiated, and futures contracts have all risen. Pay attention to the RMB exchange rate and domestic policies [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising in a shock. The yield curve steepening may come to an end [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].