Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

Report Information - Name: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 27, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals) [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the repeated geopolitical uncertainties, the rising oil prices causing stagflation concerns, and the cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period, it is difficult for the index to have a rapid V - shaped reversal. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can try to go long on large - cap blue - chips and short on small - and medium - cap stocks to deal with systematic risks. In the long term, liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases. With the arrival of the inflection point of the macro - economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, the main driving force of A - shares may gradually shift from liquidity to substantial performance improvement [13][14] Summary by Directory Market Review Market行情回顾 - At the beginning of the year, due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB and the leading performance of the Hong Kong stock market, the A - share market had a "good start", with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4100 points and the total market turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. However, as the market soared, the regulatory authorities took measures to "cool down" the market. Subsequently, influenced by factors such as the nomination of the next Fed Chairman, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and the domestic two - sessions, the market experienced fluctuations. From March 23 - 27, 2026, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. The Wind All - A index fell 0.74% cumulatively, and major broad - based indexes generally adjusted. The market style was differentiated, with the cycle and stable sectors rising against the trend [7][8][9] Stock Market Outlook - The current main contradiction is the US - Iran conflict, which causes concerns about re - inflation and suppresses risk assets. In the short term, due to the repeated geopolitical uncertainties, the rising oil prices causing stagflation concerns, and the cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period, the index is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. In the long term, liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases, and A - shares may shift the main driving force to substantial performance improvement [13][14] 成交持仓分析 - Stock index trading volume decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 110,500, 55,100, 176,700, and 252,900 lots respectively, with changes of - 30,600, - 9,200, - 7,100, and - 3,300 lots compared to last week. The stock index positions showed differentiation. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 262,800, 105,600, 289,300, and 390,400 lots respectively, with changes of - 11,800, - 600, - 8,000, and + 3,500 lots compared to last week [15] 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 基差走势 - The basis trends were differentiated. The basis of CSI 300 closed at - 75.17 points, narrowing by 5.45 points; the basis of SSE 50 closed at - 22.91 points, widening by 4.85 points; the basis of CSI 500 closed at - 178.41 points, narrowing by 22.23 points; the basis of CSI 1000 closed at - 222.51 points, narrowing by 0.92 points. In terms of the annualized basis rate, as of March 27, the annualized basis rate of the CSI 300 main contract was - 6.91%, down 0.15 percentage points; that of the SSE 50 main contract was - 3.34%, down 0.94 percentage points; that of the CSI 500 main contract was - 9.54%, up 0.36 percentage points; that of the CSI 1000 main contract was - 11.89%, down 0.90 percentage points [17] 跨期价差走势 - As of March 27, the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were all negative. The spreads of IF and IH widened compared to the beginning of the week, while those of IC and IM narrowed. The spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts were also negative. The spreads of IF, IH, and IM widened, while that of IC narrowed [26] 跨品种价差走势 - This week, the market showed a pattern where small - cap stocks were relatively strong. The CSI 300/SSE 50 ratio was 1.5869, at the 99.3% historical quantile level, increasing by 0.0033; the CSI 1000/CSI 500 ratio was 1.0011, at the 23.4% historical quantile level, decreasing by 0.0019; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.5813, at the 25.2% historical quantile level, decreasing by 0.0055; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.3663, at the 19.5% historical quantile level, decreasing by 0.0042 [28] 行业板块概况 沪深 300、中证 500 分行业走势 - In the CSI 300, the materials, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, rising 2.85%, 1.09%, and 0.83% respectively, while the real estate, communication, and information sectors led the losses, falling - 4.16%, - 3.16%, and - 3.15% respectively. In the CSI 500, the utilities, raw materials, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, rising 4.95%, 1.61%, and 1.12% respectively, while the real estate, consumer, and financial sectors led the losses, falling - 3.34%, - 2.96%, and - 2.50% respectively [31] 一级行业涨跌幅 - At the first - level industry level, the non - ferrous metals, utilities, and basic chemicals sectors led the gains, rising 2.78%, 2.50%, and 2.31% respectively; the non - bank finance, computer, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors led the losses, falling - 3.98%, - 3.44%, and - 2.94% respectively [33] 估值比较 - As of March 27, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.9128 times, 11.2831 times, 35.2152 times, and 47.0042 times respectively, and were at the 77.16%, 74.98%, 86.83%, and 76.14% quantile levels in the past ten years [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 General Information - The report is the Maike Futures Basis Statistics Table dated March 27, 2026, at 9:00 [2]. - The settlement price is used for non - ferrous metal futures, and the closing price is used for other futures. The basis rate is the main contract basis rate, calculated as (spot price - main contract price) / main contract price. The historical maximum and minimum values of the basis rate are calculated based on samples from January 1, 2015, to the present. Data sources include iFinD, Wind, and Steel Union Data. Quotes marked with * are weekly updated data, and quotes marked with ** have differences between the spot and the benchmark delivery product [3]. 3.2 Futures Data - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.27%, with a decrease of - 0.69% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 135, and the next - month basis is - 255. The spot price is 95325 [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.01%, with a decrease of - 0.63% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 175, and the next - month basis is - 240. The spot price is 23510 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.63%, with a decrease of - 0.46% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 110, and the next - month basis is - 145. The spot price is 22985 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 1.03%, with an increase of 0.06% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 155, and the next - month basis is - 170. The spot price is 16300 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is 0.08%, with a decrease of - 1.44% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 270, and the next - month basis is - 180. The spot price is 352800 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 1.72%, with a decrease of - 0.12% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 2360, and the next - month basis is 2790. The spot price is 139350 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 5.38%, with a decrease of - 0.55% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 510, and the next - month basis is 470. The spot price is 9200 [3]. - **Precious Metals**: - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, with a decrease of - 0.67% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 3.19, and the next - month basis is - 6.21. The spot price is 995.98 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 1.03%, with a decrease of - 1.09% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 227, and the next - month basis is - 180. The spot price is 17292 [3]. - **Black Industry**: - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 2.30%, with a decrease of - 0.51% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 72, and the next - month basis is 42. The spot price is 3200 [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.76%, with a decrease of - 0.24% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 25, and the next - month basis is - 33. The spot price is 3280 [3]. - Iron Ore (I): The main contract basis rate is 1.62%, with a decrease of - 3.36 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 13.2, and the next - month basis is 42.7. The spot price is 830.2 [3]. - Coke: The main contract basis rate is - 7.16%, with an increase of 1.35% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 126.0, and the next - month basis is - 211.0. The spot price is 1635 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 0.90%, with an increase of 1.42% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 17.5, and the next - month basis is - 121.0. The spot price is 1247.5 [3]. - Steam Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is - 5.29%, with an increase of 0.50% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 42.4, and the next - month basis is - 42.4. The spot price is 759.0 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.71%, with an increase of 2.32% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 282, and the next - month basis is - 382. The spot price is 5700 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is - 4.41%, with an increase of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 284, and the next - month basis is - 342. The spot price is 6150 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract basis rate is 0.42%, with an increase of 1.38% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 60, and the next - month basis is 90. The spot price is 14450 [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Soybeans: The main contract basis rate is - 4.91%, with a decrease of - 0.37% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 227, and the next - month basis is - 271. The spot price is 4400 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 8.06%, with a decrease of - 0.74% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 238, and the next - month basis is 160. The spot price is 3190 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 9.64%, with a decrease of - 0.23% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 226, and the next - month basis is 148. The spot price is 2570 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 3.75%, with an increase of 0.59% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 382, and the next - month basis is 324. The spot price is 8970 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 5.18%, with a decrease of - 0.20% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 510, and the next - month basis is 612. The spot price is 10350 [3]. - Peanuts (PK): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, with a decrease of - 1.0% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 832, and the next - month basis is 570. The spot price is 9000 [3]. - Palm Oil: The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, with a decrease of - 0.05% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 36, and the next - month basis is 40. The spot price is 9610 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 4.88%, with a decrease of - 0.08% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 135, and the next - month basis is 125. The spot price is 2900 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 1.01%, with no change compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 24, and the next - month basis is - 5. The spot price is 2400 [3]. - Apples (AP): The main contract basis rate is 14.54%, with a decrease of - 184 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 39, and the next - month basis is - 1446. The spot price is 8500 [3]. - Eggs (JD): The main contract basis rate is - 2.73%, with a decrease of - 312 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 617, and the next - month basis is - 519. The spot price is 3200 [3]. - Hogs (LH): The main contract basis rate is - 3.41%, with a decrease of - 0.10% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 335, and the next - month basis is - 3040. The spot price is 9500 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.59%, with an increase of 1200 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 15420, and the next - month basis is 15900. The spot price is 16745 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 0.31%, with a decrease of - 0.63% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 17, and the next - month basis is - 5. The spot price is 5480 [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is 2.12%, with an increase of 1.20% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 313, and the next - month basis is 408. The spot price is 3270 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 1.05%, with an increase of 0.16% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 2028, and the next - month basis is 159. The spot price is 5005 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 1.45%, with a decrease of - 0.05% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 8, and the next - month basis is 2. The spot price is 6680 [3]. - Polypropylene: The main contract basis rate is 3.07%, with a decrease of - 0.55% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 280, and the next - month basis is 996. The spot price is 9400 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 1.53%, with an increase of 2.57% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 154, and the next - month basis is 1150. The spot price is 10200 [3]. - Short - staple Fiber: The main contract basis rate is - 1.33%, with a decrease of - 1.21% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 132, and the next - month basis is - 82. The spot price is 8150 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 1.52%, with an increase of 1.92% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 133, and the next - month basis is 268. The spot price is 8900 [3]. - PVC: The main contract basis rate is - 2.30%, with a decrease of - 0.85% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 130, and the next - month basis is - 246. The spot price is 5520 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.97%, with a decrease of - 0.18% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 205, and the next - month basis is - 160. The spot price is 16300 [3]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is 1.72%, with a decrease of - 0.21% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 235, and the next - month basis is - 30. The spot price is 13870 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 1.63%, with a decrease of - 0.02% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 20, and the next - month basis is - 103. The spot price is 1361 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.80%, with a decrease of - 0.64% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 15, and the next - month basis is - 79. The spot price is 1860 [3]. - Bottle Chips (PR): The main contract basis rate is 3.84%, with an increase of 1.47% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 8104, and the next - month basis is 469. The spot price is 8415 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 1.58%, with an increase of 1.32% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 82, and the next - month basis is - 5. The spot price is 5238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 2.93%, with an increase of 3.77% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 21.5, and the next - month basis is 28.3. The spot price is 711.6 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 9.95%, with an increase of 0.51% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 437, and the next - month basis is 821. The spot price is 4830 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 4.69%, with a decrease of - 1.74% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 213, and the next - month basis is 60. The spot price is 4330 [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 9.72%, with a decrease of - 6.1% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 492, and the next - month basis is 929. The spot price is 5558 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 10.04%, with an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 1590, and the next - month basis is 657. The spot price is 7198 [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 1.85%, with a decrease of - 0.11% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 24.3, and the next - month basis is 41.7. The spot price is 4477.5 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is 0.71%, with a decrease of - 0.34

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - and long - term, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties at dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium - and long - term, due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 25th, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.3% to close at 3931.84 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95% to close at 13801 points; the ChiNext Index rose 2.01% to close at 3316.97 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.91% to close at 1315.41 points. The market turnover was 21,929 billion yuan, an increase of 968 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.87%), communication (+3.71%), and non - ferrous metals (+2.97%) performed well; coal (-1.29%) and petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.44%) performed moderately. In terms of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,871/59/559 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 179, - 29, - 165, and 15 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +106, +56, - 1, and - 162 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 164.98, 137.67, 49.67, and 12.53 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.65%, - 13.03%, - 8.05%, and - 3.22% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 14%, 11%, 12%, and 27% respectively [2]. - Details of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield are shown in Table 1 [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 25th, treasury bond futures remained flat. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.02%, TF remained flat, and TL rose 0.01%. For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of +0.1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.057, and an IRR of 1.19%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.074, and an IRR of 1.12%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 0.3 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.067, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.228, and an IRR of 0.64% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 785 billion yuan and withdrew 205 billion yuan, with a net injection of 580 billion yuan [3]. - Details of various treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate are shown in Table 2 [7]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of various sectors has declined [10]. - Based on the changes (year - on - year month - on - month) of meso - level data in each module compared with the same period in the past five years, the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import and export is scored. Positive scores represent an improvement in prosperity, negative scores represent a decline in prosperity, and zero scores represent little change in prosperity [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On March 24, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.78% to 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.43% to 13536.56 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.5% to 3251.55 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 2.33% to 1290.79 points. Market turnover was 20,961 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,520 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In the industry sectors, environmental protection (+4.29%), textile and apparel (+3.99%), and building materials (+3.66%) performed well, while petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.86%) and coal (-0.49%) performed moderately [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IH > IF, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 5,135, 26, and 328 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 73, - 85, - 164, and 177 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +475, +308, - 357, and - 426 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 128.26, 113.17, 47.72, and 10.25 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 12.05%, - 10.64%, - 7.62%, and - 2.59% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 31%, 19%, 14%, and 28% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position alternative has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [2]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 24, the treasury bond futures showed a neutral - to - strong trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF remained flat, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.52% [3]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2606 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR for different - term treasury bond futures are provided. For example, for the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 0.05 bps, a net basis of 0.062, and an IRR of 1.14% [3]. - **Funding Situation**: In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 175 billion yuan and withdrew 510 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335 billion yuan [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of various sectors has declined [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of the stock market remains unchanged, but the regulatory authorities hope for a slow - bull market rather than a crazy - bull market. Currently, the main contradiction is the US - Iran conflict, which causes concerns about re - inflation and suppresses risk assets. The A - share market is expected to have a downward - shifted oscillation range. It is recommended that long - position investors close their positions on rallies and try the strategy of going long on large - cap blue - chip stocks and short on small - cap stocks to deal with systematic risks [7][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Market行情回顾 - At the beginning of the year, the A - share market had a "good start". The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4100 points, and the total market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan. However, due to regulatory "cooling" measures, the market sentiment weakened. Later, affected by international events such as the US - Iran conflict and the nomination of the next Fed chair, the market experienced fluctuations. From March 16th to 20th, the A - share market showed a pattern of shrinking volume and falling. Most major indices declined, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing more weakly, while the ChiNext Index rose 1.26% [7][8][9] 3.1.2 Stock Market Outlook - The current main contradiction is the US - Iran conflict, which leads to concerns about re - inflation and suppresses risk assets. The Fed's hawkish signals also dampen market risk appetite. Domestically, the economic data from January to February was better than expected, and policies focus more on structural adjustment. The trading volume in the two markets has shrunk recently, and the margin trading balance remains at a high level. It is expected that the overall oscillation range will shift downward, and long - position investors are advised to take corresponding strategies [13][14] 3.2成交持仓分析 - This week, the trading volume of stock index futures increased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 141,100, 64,300, 183,800, and 256,200 contracts respectively, an increase of 35,800, 19,800, 31,600, and 54,100 contracts compared with last week. The overall open interest of stock index futures also increased. The average daily open interests of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 274,600, 106,300, 297,300, and 387,000 contracts respectively, with changes of 600, - 400, 900, and 9,600 contracts compared with last week [15] 3.3基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 3.3.1基差走势 - This week, the basis widened across the board. The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were - 80.62, - 18.06, - 200.64, and - 223.43 points respectively, with a week - on - week expansion of 69.48, 18.21, 174.64, and 196.14 points. As of March 20th, the annualized basis rates of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were - 6.76%, - 2.40%, - 9.90%, and - 10.99% respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 0.23, - 1.07, - 0.86, and + 0.43 percentage points [17][18] 3.3.2跨期价差走势 - As of the week of March 20th, the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were all negative and widened, and the spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts were also negative and widened [26] 3.3.3跨品种价差走势 - There was a significant differentiation among large - cap blue - chip stocks. CSI 300 strengthened significantly relative to SSE 50. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels and had corresponding week - on - week changes [28] 3.4行业板块概况 3.4.1沪深300、中证500分行业走势 - In the CSI 300, the communication sector led the rise with a 6.43% increase, while the materials, real estate, and information sectors led the decline, with decreases of 11.5%, 5.54%, and 3.13% respectively. In the CSI 500, all sectors declined, with the raw materials, energy, and industrial sectors leading the decline, with decreases of 11.96%, 5.35%, and 5.35% respectively [30] 3.4.2一级行业涨跌幅 - At the primary industry level, the communication and banking sectors recorded increases of 2.10% and 0.36% respectively, while other industries generally declined. The non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel sectors led the decline, with decreases of 11.82%, 10.53%, and 10.29% respectively [31] 3.5估值比较 - As of March 20, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.024, 11.4403, 35.0757, and 47.1817 times respectively, and were at the 79.06%, 77.66%, 86.58%, and 76.59% percentile levels in the past ten years [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 20, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties [1][6][23][29][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026. The basis values are - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 72.4 respectively, and the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 19, the basis of INE crude oil is 336.64, the basis of fuel oil is 199.69, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1733 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 19, the basis of rubber is - 90, and that of methanol is 35.5 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is - 650 [13] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2979 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 58.0 [22] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.88 [22] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of rebar is 95.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. On March 19, the basis of copper is 1140 [30] London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 216 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 27 [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 2.03 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the basis of CSI 300 is - 3.35 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 25.2 [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global financial market's volatility is mainly driven by the geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of the US - Iran conflict will determine oil prices, reshape the global geopolitical pattern, and affect the US dollar hegemony. Short - term news and changes in the war situation cause high - frequency fluctuations in asset prices, and the risk of conflict escalation and supply - chain disruption remains high [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts have forced a shift in global monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates, and the Fed's March interest - rate meeting is in a dilemma. The market's expectation for the Fed's interest - rate cuts has been adjusted [2]. - In the domestic market, the active fiscal policy in 2026 provides support for economic recovery and market stability. The geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable for global asset pricing, and investors should be cautious when dealing with cyclical products related to geopolitics [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The market is waiting for the details of the FOMC meeting. Key information includes the growth of social electricity consumption, new major foreign - investment projects, the Fed's stance, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate hike, and the energy and Iranian situations [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The geopolitical tension has eased marginally, and the US dollar index is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. China's economic fundamentals are improving, and policy support lays a foundation for the moderate appreciation of the renminbi. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index adjusted yesterday. The adjustment is expected to continue due to sentiment and external factors, but the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and its impact on the subsequent interest - rate cut path [4][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds rebounded weakly. The market focus is on oil prices, and the short - term stability of the bond market needs to be observed. A grid trading strategy is recommended [7]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the volatility may gradually decrease. In the long term, the demand growth in downstream fields supports the long - term value of lithium carbonate [9][10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The current industry is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. The photovoltaic industry is an important part of the energy - structure transformation. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and track the marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Short - term Shanghai aluminum prices are dominated by the war situation. Low - cost long positions or call options can be held, and positive arbitrage can be considered [14]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply is affected by maintenance and new production capacity. Overseas, the price of alumina is affected by the Middle East situation and the policy expectation of Guinea. Selling deep - out - of - the - money put options is recommended [15]. - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure, and trading should be cautious before the FOMC meeting. The previous strategy remains effective [15][18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is affected by inventory and macro factors, showing a weak and volatile trend in the short term and a relatively strong trend in the medium term [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an intraday shock. The nickel market is affected by macro factors and Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel market has inventory reduction and consumption recovery, but the spot trading is not active [19][21]. - **Tin**: The tin price is affected by the Iranian situation and macro factors, showing a weak and volatile trend [20][21]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling under the influence of inventory pressure and cost support [22]. Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The Brazilian shipment affects the soybean and soybean - meal market. The short - term domestic soybean - meal price is supported, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The rapeseed - meal has regained cost - effectiveness, and a positive spread arbitrage can be tried [23][24]. - **Oils**: The oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The international and domestic supply - demand situations are different. The market follows the trend of crude oil and is affected by bio - fuel policies. Attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing of oil. The oil price shows a volatile state, and risk control should be strengthened [26][27]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil market is supported by the Middle East conflict and supply tightening, and the low - sulfur fuel - oil has a tight supply situation [27][28]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is strong. The supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and the demand is not strong. Attention should be paid to position control and hedging strategies [28][29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium market is affected by the Middle East conflict, tariff policies, and supply disturbances. In the long term, the bull - market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments may occur. Attention should be paid to position control [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: The gold and silver market is affected by the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns, and the Fed's interest - rate expectations. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term and pay attention to support levels [32][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is under pressure due to the decline in spot prices and weak demand. The offset - paper futures show a range - bound trend [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are supported by the cost due to the Middle East conflict. They are expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to risks [37][38]. - **LPG**: The LPG market has both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [38][40]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The price fluctuates greatly, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 05 - 09 contracts [41][42]. - **PP and Propylene**: The PP and propylene markets are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz [45]. - **Plastics**: The plastic market is affected by supply reduction and demand feedback. The near - month support is strong, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [46][47]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is affected by geopolitical factors. The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is expected to stabilize in the medium - long term [50][51][52]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has a significant impact on the urea market, driving up the international and domestic prices. It is expected to trigger a price increase [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, and the glass is restricted by supply expectations and inventory. Both are affected by the macro and other factors [55][56]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coil limits the upside. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [56][57]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price is affected by negotiation events and supply - demand factors. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term supply exceeds demand [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal and coke prices are supported by overseas energy price increases, but the oversupply problem restricts the price increase [59][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloys are supported by cost, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [61][62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig - futures price has fallen below the previous low. The secondary - fattening situation varies by region, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [63]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations. The issuance of import quotas may narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the price is expected to be strong [65][66]. - **Sugar**: The sugar - futures price is affected by the Middle East situation and the slow sugar - mill crushing progress in Guangxi. The short - term oil price may fluctuate [66][68]. - **Eggs**: The egg - futures price has fallen. The supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is recovering. Selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70]. - **Apples**: The apple - futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. The 05 contract is supported in the short term [76]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is stable. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price may bottom out in a low - level shock [77]. - **Logs**: The log - futures price is neutral to slightly bullish. The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost provides support. A wait - and - see or light - long strategy is recommended [77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Five - Year Plan Outline has significant long - term investment guidance effectiveness for the futures market, with a clear policy transmission causal chain and sector heterogeneity. Industrial products (black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical) have the strongest guidance effect and the highest recognizability of investment opportunity clues, followed by agricultural products, while financial futures (stock index) have weaker effectiveness, and treasury bond futures and precious metals have no significant guidance [3]. - Most of the core policy orientations of the plan are reflected in the long - term trends of corresponding domestic futures varieties, providing a theoretical basis for the next part of the research [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypotheses - **Core Conduction Logic**: A three - layer analysis framework is established. The first layer is policy text interpretation, extracting relevant information from the plan outline. The second layer is industrial impact conduction, analyzing the impact on the real - industry supply - demand structure. The third layer is futures price response, tracking the price response mode in the futures market. Different sectors have different core conduction paths [8]. - **Research Hypotheses**: Five core research hypotheses are put forward, including the market's immediate pricing of the investment direction of the plan, the positive explanatory power of policy support intensity for long - term excess returns, the existence of a clear causal conduction chain, sector heterogeneity, and the relationship between policy constraints and investment guidance effectiveness [9]. 3.2 Research Design - **Sample Selection and Data Source**: The time sample covers five rounds of Five - Year Plans from 2001 - 2025. The target sample is limited to futures varieties listed on domestic futures exchanges, and specific screening and processing rules are set [10]. - **Core Variable Definition**: The explained variables include return - related indicators, event response indicators, price trend indicators, volatility and liquidity indicators, and term structure indicators. The core explanatory variable is the quantification of policy support intensity, with specific steps for text pre - processing, indicator classification, weight setting, and scoring rules. There are also mediating variables and control variables [11][12][14]. - **Empirical Model Setting**: An event study model, a benchmark panel regression model, and a mediating effect model are established, and a robustness test model is set up, including placebo test, synthetic control method, instrumental variable method, and sample regression [15][16][17]. 3.3 Empirical Results and Analysis - **Event Research**: High - policy - support sectors in the domestic futures market obtain significant positive excess returns after the plan is released, while policy - restricted sectors have significant negative returns. The neutral group has no significant abnormal returns. The announcement effect of the plan proposal is stronger than that of the outline release, verifying the market's immediate pricing of the investment direction [19][20][22]. - **Benchmark Regression**: The coefficient of policy support intensity is significantly positive in the full sample, and the result is stable across five rounds of plans. The effect is stronger in the supply - side reform cycle, verifying the positive explanatory power of policy support intensity for long - term excess returns [23]. - **Mediating Effect Test**: There is a significant mediating effect in domestic industrial and agricultural product sectors, with the non - ferrous metal sector having the highest mediating effect ratio. Treasury bonds and precious metals have no significant mediating effect, verifying the existence of a clear causal conduction chain [24][25]. - **Heterogeneity Analysis**: Industrial product sectors have the strongest guidance effectiveness and the highest recognizability of investment opportunities, followed by agricultural products. Financial futures are significantly differentiated, and treasury bond futures and precious metals have no significant guidance effect. The underlying logic is related to the policy's intervention ability on core pricing factors, the length and certainty of the conduction chain, and the ownership of pricing power [26][27][28]. - **Reverse Verification by Cycle**: More than 85% of the core policy statements in the plan are reflected in the long - term trends of corresponding domestic futures varieties. Policy constraints and quantification are positively related to the fulfillment rate. Some deviations are due to insufficient policy implementation or exogenous shocks. The accuracy of investment judgments based on plan interpretation by top domestic futures companies is also verified [39][40]. 3.4 Boundary Condition Analysis - The higher the proportion of binding indicators, the stronger the effectiveness and the higher the fulfillment rate of investment opportunities. - The faster the policy implementation progress, the stronger the effectiveness and the higher the accuracy of investment opportunities. - Market pre - expectation weakens the announcement effect but does not affect long - term returns. - Exogenous shocks weaken but do not reverse the guidance effect. - The contribution of policy effects, fundamental effects, and exogenous shock effects to the monthly return fluctuations of domestic futures varieties is decomposed, and the influence of exogenous shocks is analyzed [41][42][46]. - The stronger the industrial attribute, the weaker the financial attribute, and the higher the domestic pricing power of a variety, the higher the policy conduction efficiency and the stronger the recognizability of investment opportunities [48]. 3.5 Research Conclusions and Investment Insights - The Five - Year Plan Outline has significant investment direction guidance effectiveness for the domestic futures market, and investment opportunity clues can be stably extracted. - The guidance effect has a solid causal fundamental support, not just emotional speculation. - There is strong sector heterogeneity in guidance effectiveness and recognizability of investment opportunities. - There are clear boundary conditions for guidance effectiveness, and exogenous shocks only interfere with the short - term conduction rhythm [49][50][52]. 3.6 Standardized Interpretation Methodology for Futures Investment Opportunities in the Five - Year Plan Outline A four - step standardized framework is established: text quantification and scoring to lock in the core direction; verification of the conduction chain to clarify core varieties; division of time windows to formulate trading strategies; and identification of risk boundaries to dynamically correct strategies [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to government shutdown; the US March Michigan consumer confidence hit a three - month low; the US January core PCE price increased 3.1% year - on - year, a two - year high. With the continuation of the US - Iran war and many events and data within the week, the stock index may be under pressure [11]. - China's new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased 9% year - on - year. Affected by the news of the 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations in France and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the bond market sentiment turned cautious. Considering the high - volatility market caused by the international geopolitical situation, government bonds may fluctuate [13]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The decline in external demand and the risk of imported inflation need to be vigilant [19]. - In February 2026, CPI and core CPI both rebounded significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, CPI may face downward pressure, and PPI may turn positive as early as March. Attention should be paid to the transmission from PPI to CPI [21]. - From January to February 2026, China's exports increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the "global manufacturing cycle up + export rush effect". AI investment wave may be the main driving force of this manufacturing cycle [23]. - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, and the decline in December continued to expand. The growth rate of private investment and public investment both declined [27]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed [30]. - In February 2026, new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Strategy outlook: Range - bound [11]. - Stock index trend review: Most stocks fell, with more than 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing down [11]. - Core view: Due to multiple factors such as the US economic data and the US - Iran war, the stock index may be under pressure [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract was flat, and the 2 - year main contract was flat [13]. - Core view: Affected by various factors, the bond market sentiment turned cautious, and government bonds may fluctuate [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The decline in external demand and the risk of imported inflation need attention [19]. CPI - In February 2026, CPI and core CPI both rebounded significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, CPI may face downward pressure, and PPI may turn positive as early as March [21]. Import and Export - From January to February 2026, China's exports were 656.58 billion US dollars, imports were 442.96 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars. The high growth of exports was due to the "global manufacturing cycle up + export rush effect" [23]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%. In December, the growth rate of private investment was - 17.2%, and the growth rate of public investment was - 14.3% [27]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed [30]. Social Financing - In February 2026, new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [32].