Workflow
主权信用评级体系重构
icon
Search documents
新形势下全球主权信用评级体系的重构与路径创新
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-07-08 11:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The traditional sovereign credit rating system dominated by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch has significant limitations, and its lag and political bias are increasingly prominent with the profound changes in the global geopolitical and economic landscape. To build a global, fair, and comprehensive rating system, reforms in three aspects are needed: reconstructing the global governance evaluation system, focusing on the adaptability of the monetary system, and systematically integrating geopolitical and sustainable impacts [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Sovereign Credit Rating Significance and Impact of Three Major Sovereign Rating Actions - Sovereign credit is an important part of the global credit system. Sovereign credit rating measures a country's ability and willingness to repay debts, providing standardized assessments of national credit risks for global investors and influencing a country's financing costs and international capital flows [8]. - Moody's, S&P, and Fitch dominate the global sovereign credit rating market. Their rating methods have evolved with the development of the US capital market and globalization, and major adjustments occurred after the European debt crisis [8][9]. - A downgrade in sovereign rating can cause financial market fluctuations, capital outflows, and increase overseas financing costs. However, after the European debt crisis, the impact of rating actions on a country's capital market and overseas financing has weakened [9]. 3.2 Characteristics and Deficiencies of Three Major Sovereign Credit Rating Methods - The core underlying elements of the three major sovereign rating methods are highly similar, with higher complexity and comprehensiveness. They cover multiple dimensions and use structured calculation methods, and the final ratings may be adjusted by expert judgment [10]. - The evaluation of institutional and governance strength in the three major ratings gives high weight but uses unfair standards, mainly referring to the World Bank's WGI, which may lead to misunderstandings or underestimations of the governance levels of developing countries [11][13][14]. - The three major rating agencies use "international currency" as an evaluation criterion, but the current system fails to fully reflect the decline of traditional international currencies and the rise of the RMB, which is unfavorable to emerging markets and developing economies [17]. 3.3 New Features of the Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape and Ideas for Building a New Sovereign Rating System 3.3.1 New Features of the Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape - The overall strength of Western countries and the governance effectiveness of "Western democracy" are declining, while late - developing countries show significant governance performance [19]. - The international monetary system is being reconstructed, with the weakening of traditional currencies and the rise of emerging currencies [19]. - The geopolitical pattern is moving towards multi - polarization, and the influence of emerging economies is increasing [19]. - Sustainable development has become a core issue, and ESG factors will reconstruct the sovereign credit risk evaluation framework [19]. 3.3.2 Ideas for Building a New Sovereign Rating System - Developing countries should build an independent governance evaluation system, promote information sharing, and create a globally comparable institutional governance evaluation system [19][21]. - A multi - dimensional evaluation framework covering the relative change of currency international status, multi - currency reserve structure, and financial security mechanisms should be constructed to improve the forward - looking and applicability of sovereign credit analysis [22][25][26]. - Geopolitical risks should be systematically included in the sovereign rating framework, and the geopolitical radiation ability of the rating subject should be evaluated [27][29][30]. - ESG and other sustainable factors will reconstruct the sovereign credit risk evaluation framework from multiple dimensions and affect future international competition rules [31].