从订单降速到清欠发力，"一揽子"化 债第二阶段建筑企业信用风险怎么看？ 联合资信 工商评级一部 刘珺轩 赵兮 李旭 2023 年 7 月，中央政治局会议上提出"制定实施一揽子化债方案"，明确"保存 量、控增量"的化债核心思路。地方政府相关项目在建筑业需求端占据重要份额，本 文回顾了本轮化债以来建筑行业表现，并对后续化债进程对建筑行业的影响进行了研 判。从本轮化债的第一阶段情况看，样本建筑企业地方政府相关项目订单、收入均有 所下降，回款和周转效率恶化，特别是高地方政府项目占比的地方建筑国企短期偿付 压力偏大。"6+4+2 万亿"出台以来，本轮化债进入第二阶段，在央地债务结构优化以 及建立防范化解地方政府债务风险长效机制背景下，预计建筑行业整体需求结构将发 生持续调整，建工企业的信用水平将加大分化。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、"一揽子"化债政策梳理 本轮化债政策力度大、指向准，建立了监测口径更全、预算约束更强、监管问责 更严的长效机制，防风险与促发展并重，推动经济发展和债务管理良性循环。 自 2014 年以来，我国已推动多轮地方政府化债。2014 年开始的首轮"化债"主要 将存量债务纳 ...

意大利安莎社报道称，穆迪自2018年10月将该国主权信用评级下调至Baa3后，该评级一直维持在这一 水平，直至本次上调。 新华财经罗马11月22日电（记者高婧妍）国际信用评级机构穆迪日前发布报告，上调意大利主权信用评 级至Baa2，同时将该国评级展望调整为"稳定"。 意大利经济和财政部长贾恩卡洛·焦尔杰蒂（Giancarlo Giorgetti）称，意大利政府对穆迪的上调感到满 意，这进一步证明了外界对政府和意大利经济恢复的信心。 （文章来源：新华财经） 穆迪认为，此次上调反映出意大利在政治稳定性和经济政策方面稳健且持续的表现，这增强了经济和财 政改革以及在"国家复苏与韧性计划"（PNRR）框架下所实施投资的有效性。 在有关PNRR的评估中，穆迪指出，意大利在完成该计划"里程碑"和目标方面进展良好，在所有欧盟国 家中位居前列，支付申请次数和拨付金额均处于领先位置。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zhejiang Province has prominent regional advantages, a well - developed economy and finance, and a relatively low government debt burden. It is accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading and has received strong policy support [3][5]. - Although the general public budget revenues of all prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang Province have increased, the government - funded budget revenues have declined due to the real estate industry. The government debt scale of each city has increased, with Hangzhou having a relatively light debt burden [3]. - Zhejiang has a large number of urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds and a large bond outstanding scale, mainly concentrated in the cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. Affected by the debt - resolution policy, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang declined in 2024, and the financing was in a net outflow state. Since 2025, the issuance term has been further extended, and the financing has turned into a net inflow [3]. - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has continued to grow, with the debt structure mainly relying on bank financing. In 2026, the maturity scale of urban investment bonds in Taizhou is relatively concentrated. In 2024, Huzhou and Shaoxing had relatively high regional debt pressures [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zhejiang Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang has prominent regional advantages, with well - developed transportation infrastructure, a significant port economy, a continuous net inflow of permanent residents, and a high urbanization rate. In 2024, its GDP ranked fourth in the country, and its per - capita GDP ranked fifth. In the first half of 2025, its GDP continued to grow at a rate higher than the national average [5][7][8]. - The industrial structure is dominated by the secondary and tertiary industries, with the proportion of the tertiary industry continuously increasing. The province has a solid industrial foundation, a well - developed private economy, and is steadily developing new productive forces. It is accelerating the construction of the "415X" advanced manufacturing cluster and focusing on cultivating future industries [9][11][14]. - A series of policies have provided strong support for Zhejiang's economic development. The province has completed the "14th Five - Year Plan" with high quality. By the end of 2025, its economic aggregate is expected to reach about 9.5 trillion yuan, and the per - capita GDP is expected to exceed 20,000 US dollars [16][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang has strong fiscal strength. In 2024, its general public budget revenue ranked third in the country, with high revenue quality and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. Although the government - funded revenue continued to decline, it still contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue changed little year - on - year, but the revenue quality declined [20]. - The provincial government's debt burden is relatively low in the country. In recent years, the local government debt scale has been increasing, with the debt balance ranking fourth in the country at the end of 2024. The local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio have been rising [21]. - Zhejiang has continued to receive debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to September 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 10.9 billion yuan and 8.14 billion yuan respectively. In 2025, it applied for a new government debt quota of 378.8 billion yuan [23]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province 3.2.1 Economic Strength and Industrial Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province - Most prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang have a per - capita GDP higher than the national average, but the economic development elements are unevenly distributed, and the GDP gap between cities is large. The economic vitality increases from the southwest to the northeast. The pillar industries of cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area are manufacturing, with many national industrial parks and listed companies [25]. - The cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area and in the southeast mainly have manufacturing as their pillar industries, while those in the southwest mainly rely on the tertiary industry. Each city has its own dominant and emerging industries [27][29]. - In 2024, the GDP of Hangzhou and Ningbo exceeded 2 trillion yuan and 1.8 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for more than 44% of Zhejiang's GDP. Except for Hangzhou, the GDP growth rates of other cities were higher than the national average. The per - capita GDP of cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area was significantly higher than that of other regions [32][33]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province - The general public budget revenues of all prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang have increased, but the scale gap is significant. Hangzhou and Ningbo lead by a large margin. Affected by the real estate industry, the government - funded budget revenues of all cities have declined. Cities with low fiscal self - sufficiency rates rely more on superior subsidies [34]. - The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of prefecture - level cities are highly polarized. In 2024, Hangzhou had a fiscal self - sufficiency rate close to 100%, while Quzhou and Lishui had rates of only 32% and 30% respectively [36]. - The government debt scale of each prefecture - level city has increased, with Hangzhou having a relatively light debt burden. Except for Hangzhou, the local government debt ratios of other cities exceeded 100% in 2024. Zhejiang is continuing to prevent and resolve local debt risks [38][41][43]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province - As of the end of September 2025, there were 479 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Zhejiang, an increase of 22 compared to the end of October 2024. The administrative levels of these enterprises are mainly concentrated at the district - county level, and most are located in cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. The main credit ratings are AA and AA+ [44]. 3.3.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation of Urban Investment Bonds in Zhejiang Province - Affected by the debt - resolution policy, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang declined in 2024, but the outstanding scale remained large, mainly concentrated in cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. The financing of urban investment bonds showed a net outflow. Since 2025, the issuance term has been further extended, and the financing has turned into a net inflow [48]. - In 2024, the number and scale of urban investment bond issuances in Zhejiang decreased by 16.13% and 19.78% respectively compared to the previous year. From January to September 2025, the number and scale of issuances decreased by 11.04% and 17.65% respectively compared to the same period in the previous year [49]. - In 2024, the issuance term of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang shifted to long - term. From January to September 2025, the proportion of 5 - year bonds increased by 5.2 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2024 [50]. - In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang turned negative, with a net outflow of about 2 billion yuan. From January to September 2025, it turned into a net inflow of 1.4051 billion yuan [52]. - As of the end of September 2025, the outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang was 200.61 billion yuan, with Hangzhou having the largest balance [55]. 3.3.3 Analysis of the Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has continued to grow, with the debt structure mainly relying on bank loans. In 2026, the maturity scale of urban investment bonds in Taizhou is relatively concentrated. At the end of 2024, the coverage of short - term debt by cash - like assets decreased. Since 2024, the cash flow from financing activities has remained in a net inflow state, indicating strong financing ability [57]. - As of the end of 2024, the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang reached 8.25 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of the end of June 2025, it increased by 6.6% compared to the end of 2024 [58]. - As of the end of 2024, bank financing accounted for 62.9% of the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang, with the proportion continuously increasing. The proportion of bond financing in Shaoxing, Huzhou, and Zhoushan exceeded 30%, and the proportion of other financing in Jinhua and Zhoushan exceeded 15% [58]. - As of the end of September 2025, the scale of urban investment bonds due in 2026 and 2027 was about 700 billion yuan and 450 billion yuan respectively, accounting for about 36% and 23% of the total. The proportion of bonds due in Taizhou in 2026 was 46.7%, relatively concentrated [61]. - As of the end of June 2025, the total debt capitalization ratio of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city increased, all exceeding 50%, with those in Shaoxing, Jinhua, and Taizhou exceeding 60% [61]. - At the end of 2024, the coverage of short - term debt by cash - like assets of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang decreased compared to the end of 2023. As of the end of June 2025, the cash - to - short - term debt ratio of each city increased compared to the end of the previous year, but except for Ningbo and Wenzhou, it was still lower than that at the end of 2023 [63]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang remained in a net inflow state, but the net inflow scale decreased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, it still maintained a net inflow state, and the net inflow of Shaoxing, Quzhou, and Zhoushan exceeded the whole - year level of 2024 [63][64]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - Among the prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, the scale of "local government debt + total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises" in Hangzhou is the largest, followed by Ningbo, Shaoxing, Huzhou, and Jiaxing. The ratio of "local government debt + total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises" to comprehensive financial resources in most cities exceeds 400%, with Shaoxing and Huzhou approaching 1000%, indicating relatively high regional debt pressures [65].

全球金融圈都被中国一个操作惊到了，明明自己账上躺着3万亿美元的外汇储备，根本花不完，却面向全球投资者发行了40亿的美元债。 不缺美元借美元，中国到底打的什么算盘？ 就在11月份，中国在香港成功发行了40亿美元的主权债券，3年期和5年期各20亿美元。 按理来说，发债券就等于找市场借现金，发美元债就代表手里没美元了，需要借美元来救急。 可中国呢？ 压根就不缺美元，9月份的顺差还有500多亿美元，外汇储备更是高达3万亿美元，全球独一份。 那中国为什么还要借美元呢？ 这背后的真实目的，是改写全球金融规则，直指美元霸权的要害，中国发行的不是美债，而是美债的掘墓人，特朗普跟美联储恐怕都要坐不住了。 为什么这么说呢？三大原因。 第一点，这是对中国主权信用认可度的最好测试。 过去几十年里，世界各国的主权信用，牢牢地攥在3家评级机构的手里，分别是美国的穆迪、标准普尔，和欧美合资的惠誉。 美元霸权收割全球，这3家机构都出了不少力，每当华尔街要收割一个国家的优质资产时，这3家机构就会一起发力，大幅调降目标国家的主权信用评级，市 场投资者一看，马上就会引起恐慌，纷纷抛售这个国家的外汇、债券和股票。 面对投资者的挤兑，本来没问题的国家 ...

尼泊尔连续两年获"BB-"主权信用评级 中新社加德满都11月18日电 (记者 崔楠)国际信用评级机构惠誉18日发布报告，将尼泊尔主权信用评级 定为"BB-"，评级展望为"稳定"，与该国去年水平持平。 尼泊尔财政部对此表示，尽管面临社会与政治局势动荡、自然灾害以及全球经济放缓等多重挑战，尼泊 尔仍维持去年的评级，显示该国经济指标正在逐步改善，并呈现稳定向好的趋势。 惠誉指出，尼泊尔"BB-"评级反映出其政府债务和外债规模相对较低，外部流动性较为充裕，以及以水 电产业为支撑的稳健中期增长前景。 但该机构同时提醒，政治不确定性仍可能影响尼泊尔后续评级。尽管尼泊尔临时政府已恢复国内秩序， 并宣布将于2026年3月5日举行选举，但政治过渡期的不确定性以及党派进一步分散，可能削弱政策制定 效率并拖累治理水平。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 尼泊尔自2024年起启动本国主权信用评级程序。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著 ...

以化债促发展，城投债融资边际改善 ——2025 年三季度城投债市场分析与展望 联合资信 公用评级四部 |马玉丹 |王文燕 靠前使用化债额度，财政部加码助力隐债化解。9 月 12 日，财政部在国新办举 行的新闻发布会上表示，将提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用 化债额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务。截至 2025 年 10 月底，用于置换隐性债务的 特殊再融资债券已累计披露发行 1.993 万亿元，发行进度 99.67%。特殊新增专项债券 发行节奏自 5 月开始明显提速，三季度累计发行 7381 亿元，截至 9 月底发行总额已 超过 1.2 万亿，超额完成年度 8000 亿发行目标。10 月 13 日，河北省财政厅率先披露 已提前获得 2026 年置换存量隐性债务限额 280 亿元，目前处于待分配状态。 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具落地，缓释地方投资压力。9 月 29 日，国家发展改 革委召开新闻发布会，宣布设立规模达 5000 亿元的新型政策性金融工具，全额用于 补充重大项目建设资本金。同日，国开行、农发行、进出口银行同步成立专项公司， 标志该稳投资举措进入实质性落地阶段。截至 10 月 ...

2025年11月13日，第十届不动产证券化合作发展大会暨2025不动产证券化"前沿奖"颁奖典礼活动在上海举行。东方金诚在本次大会上获评"年度最佳评级机构"，子公司东方金诚信用亦荣获"年 本次"前沿奖"评选聚焦不动产证券化领域的前沿动态与创新成果，旨在表彰在推动市场发展、产品创新及风险管理方面作出突出贡献的机构与项目。东方金诚凭借在多个创新项目中的优异表现 作为国有信用评级机构，东方金诚始终紧跟市场发展趋势，积极参与并推动不动产证券化产品的创新与规范发展，在传统与新兴基础资产类型中均展现出深厚的评级专业能力，覆盖了类REITs、 东方金诚及其子公司东方金诚信用近年来在绿色金融领域深耕细作，先后完成了多单具有市场影响力的绿色ABS/ABN项目评级和绿色认证，为绿色建筑、可持续能源、生态环保等领域的资产盘活 当前，中国不动产证券化市场正迎来新一轮创新与扩容。随着公募REITs试点扩围、绿色金融政策持续发力，以及跨境证券化产品的逐步发展和探索，市场对专业评级服务的需求日益提升。公司 展望未来，东方金诚将不断深化对不动产证券化、绿色金融、供应链金融等前沿领域的研究，优化评级方法与模型，为市场提供更为精准和高效的信用评级 ...

"当前，延安大力推进市属国企'四类公司'改革，通过战略性重组和专业化整合，将17家市属集团 公司整合为功能清晰、分工明确的13家国有企业，着力破解企业产业化转型困境，加快建立完善现代企 业制度，持续增强延安国企的市场竞争力与综合实力。"延安市国资委相关负责人说。（记者：周恒宇 通讯员：郝栋） 11月6日，延安市人民政府与大公国际资信评估有限公司（以下简称"大公国际"）举行战略合作签 约暨延安资本运营有限公司（以下简称"延安资本"）评级授牌仪式。经大公国际综合评定，延安资本获 评AAA主体信用等级，成为延安首家获评AAA主体信用等级的市属国企。 AAA主体信用等级作为企业信用评级的最高等级，是衡量企业综合实力与竞争力的重要评价之 一。大公国际党委委员、副总裁张秦牛介绍，延安资本作为延安市重要的综合性国有资本运营主体，承 担着推动当地产业结构优化、服务区域经济社会发展的重任。此次将延安资本的主体信用等级确定为 AAA，表明延安资本偿还债务的能力很强，受不利经济环境的影响不大，违约风险很低。这体现了国 内市场对延安资本发展前景、综合实力的认可。 ...

Summary of TransUnion Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TransUnion - **Industry**: Consumer information and credit reporting - **Position**: One of the big three global credit bureaus Key Points and Arguments Growth Performance - TransUnion experienced a growth of **3%** in both **2022** and **2023**, which was below expectations due to high inflation and rising interest rates creating uncertainty in the lending market [2][3] - The company anticipates a return to **high single-digit to low double-digit growth** in **2024** and **2025**, driven by stability in the U.S. financial services sector and increased lending volumes [3][4] Market Dynamics - The lending environment is stabilizing, with notable growth in **consumer lending**, particularly with fintechs [3][4] - Emerging verticals such as technology, retail, e-commerce, and media are contributing to growth, with a **7.5%** increase reported in the third quarter [5][6] Consumer Health - The consumer market is characterized as relatively healthy, with consumers meeting financial obligations due to employment and real wage growth [8] - Delinquency rates have returned to normal levels, with **40%** of consumers classified as super prime and **14%** as subprime, indicating a bifurcation in consumer credit quality [9][10] Product Diversification - TransUnion is diversifying its product offerings beyond credit reporting, focusing on identity resolution, marketing, and fraud prevention [15][16] - The **Trusted Call Solutions** product is expected to generate **$150 million** in revenue by **2025**, up from **$50 million** three years ago [16] Pricing Strategy - Pricing growth in U.S. markets is driven by a **5%** increase, primarily in the mortgage sector due to FICO pricing changes [17][18] - TransUnion plans to pass on costs associated with FICO's pricing changes to customers, which may impact margins but protect revenue [22][23] Future Outlook - The company is undergoing a transformation program aimed at optimizing its organizational model and modernizing technology, with an expected **$35 million** in cost savings by the end of **2025** [30][31] - The acquisition of a larger stake in a Mexican credit bureau is pending regulatory approval, which will allow TransUnion to consolidate revenue and EBITDA [34] AI and Innovation - TransUnion views itself as an **AI winner**, leveraging machine learning for product innovation and operational efficiencies, particularly in fraud detection [35][36] Risk Management - The company emphasizes the uniqueness of its data assets, which are critical for creating comprehensive consumer profiles and differentiating from competitors [38] Additional Important Insights - The company is cautiously optimistic about the stability of the lending market and is closely monitoring consumer behavior and market dynamics [11][12] - The transition to VantageScore in the mortgage market is contingent on changes by GSEs and lenders, which are expected to occur by early **2026** [24][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the TransUnion conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, market dynamics, consumer health, product diversification, pricing strategy, future outlook, and innovation efforts.

Core Insights - Ghana's sovereign credit rating was upgraded from CCC+/C to B-/B by S&P Global Ratings, marking a significant milestone in the country's recovery process after nearly three years of international debt defaults [1][2] Economic Factors - Ghana's foreign exchange reserves surged to nearly $11 billion by the end of 2025, representing about 9% of GDP, up from $6.8 billion at the end of 2024 [1] - Strong export performance, particularly in gold and cocoa, which account for over 60% of commodity exports, has positively impacted the economy, with the cedi appreciating approximately 30% against the dollar this year [1] - The new government has implemented structural reforms aimed at achieving a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP annually and a long-term plan to reduce public debt to 45% of GDP by 2034 [1] Investment Implications - The upgrade to B-/B with a stable outlook signals a significant reduction in recent default risk, boosting investor confidence and making Ghanaian assets, especially restructured new euro-denominated bonds, more attractive to global investors [2] - Lower borrowing costs are anticipated as the risk premium decreases, which should benefit both the government and the domestic private sector in future external borrowing [2] - The upgrade also acknowledges the support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Ghana's fiscal consolidation efforts under a $3 billion extended credit facility, effective until May 31, 2026 [2] Economic Growth - Ghana's economy experienced a growth rate of 6.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive growth momentum [2] Risks - Despite the positive outlook, there are still risks, including high debt servicing costs projected to account for 20% of revenue by 2028 and unresolved debt restructuring negotiations with commercial and official creditors regarding $5 billion in remaining debt [2]