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稳定币系列报告之二:宏观视角下稳定币的四种内涵
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-20 10:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the stablecoin sector, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize global payment efficiency and its implications for the financial system [2][10]. Core Insights - Stablecoins represent a technological innovation that enhances global payment efficiency while also reflecting the digital extension of dollar hegemony and the ongoing competition within sovereign financial systems [2][10]. - The future development of stablecoins will depend on the maturation of regulatory frameworks and the evolution of a multipolar stablecoin ecosystem, which could determine their role as a core component of inclusive global financial infrastructure [2][10]. Summary by Sections Stablecoin 1.0: Efficiency Revolution in Traditional Payment Models - Stablecoins leverage smart contracts for automated payments, reducing credit risk and enhancing efficiency [11][12]. - They significantly lower cross-border payment costs, with fees dropping to as low as $0.00025 per transaction compared to traditional systems [19][20]. - In high-inflation economies, stablecoins serve as a hedge against inflation and facilitate cross-border settlements [27][28]. Stablecoin 2.0: Digital Extension of the Dollar - As of July 4, 2025, the global stablecoin market is valued at $241.634 billion, predominantly backed by the US dollar [30][32]. - The issuance of stablecoins is expected to increase demand for US Treasury securities, reinforcing the dollar's dominance [33][36]. Stablecoin 3.0: New Variables for Global Financial Stability - The stability of stablecoins relies on trust mechanisms, with potential systemic risks emerging from liquidity and credit risks [37][42]. - The rise of stablecoins may challenge sovereign monetary policies and reduce the effectiveness of macroeconomic controls [38][42]. Stablecoin 4.0: Future Compliance and Ecosystem Integration - The report anticipates four concurrent trends in stablecoin development: regulatory frameworks enhancing compliance, deeper integration with traditional finance, the creation of stablecoin application ecosystems, and the emergence of a multipolar stablecoin system [45][52]. - Regulatory developments in regions like the EU, the US, and Hong Kong are expected to shape the future landscape of stablecoins [46][48].