1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market continues to oscillate due to the combination of cost pressure and weak demand. Although there is a potential for future production cuts due to continuous losses in coal - based plants, the high arrival volume in the short term and the medium - to - high inventory level suppress price rebound. The high load of polyester provides some support, but weak orders in the weaving sector slow down the de - stocking process. The market lacks drivers to break through the current range, and attention should be paid to plant maintenance dynamics and actual port arrival rhythms [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The ethylene glycol futures price dropped from 4492 yuan/ton to 4478 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline. The spot price in East China fell by 15 yuan/ton to 4515 yuan/ton, and the basis expanded from 28 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded slightly by 1 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread widened by 2 yuan/ton to 44 yuan/ton [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 6409 lots to 252714 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13.06% to 154700 lots, indicating increased short - term trading activity and a multi - short game during price decline [2] - **Supply Side**: The operating rates of ethylene glycol processes remained stable, with oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based at 63.94%, 61.51%, and 62.4% respectively. However, the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and coal - based processes were still in deep losses, with coal - based profit at - 170 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The polyester plant load remained at a high of 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was 63.43%. Terminal orders in the seasonal off - season restricted demand, and downstream procurement of ethylene glycol was mainly for rigid needs [3] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased by 1.9 tons to 47.5 tons, and Zhangjiagang's inventory dropped by 0.9 tons to 14.8 tons. However, the arrival volume increased significantly by 2.7 tons to 15.9 tons, indicating potential future port inventory accumulation [3] 3.2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 4492 yuan/ton to 4478 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline, and the East China spot price fell by 15 yuan/ton to 4515 yuan/ton, a 0.33% decline [5] - **Spreads**: The basis expanded by 14 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton, a 50% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, a 5.88% increase; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to 44 yuan/ton, a 4.76% increase; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a 12% decrease [5] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 170 yuan/ton, while data on naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits were incomplete [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based all remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory decreased by 1.9 tons to 47.5 tons, a 3.85% decline; Zhangjiagang's inventory dropped by 0.9 tons to 14.8 tons, a 5.73% decline; the arrival volume increased by 2.7 tons to 15.9 tons, a 20.45% increase [5] 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 30, the morning trading in the East China US dollar market was stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 531 - 535 US dollars/ton, and no transactions reported. In the afternoon, the trading atmosphere was cold, with negotiations in the range of 530 - 532 US dollars/ton and no transactions [6] - On July 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was consolidating at a high level, and Shaanxi's supply quotes were firm [6] - On July 30, the mainstream market strengthened, and the price in the South China market increased slightly, with a certain price difference from the East China market, currently around 4600 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On July 30, international oil prices rose overnight, the morning market was firm, the cost side was favorable, and the macro commodity sentiment was positive. The ethylene glycol market price was strong, with the East China price negotiated around 4530 yuan/ton [6] 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]