Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to stable supply, continuous inventory accumulation, stable demand, and potential cost - side fluctuations. The inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain dominates the market, and the risk of price decline is relatively high. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion progress and demand changes [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract dropped from 3,826.0 yuan/ton to 3,723.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.69%, indicating weak market sentiment. The basis widened from - 16 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, showing stronger support for the spot relative to the futures [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 65.24% to 208,232 lots, and the open interest rose by 4.31% to 307,881 lots, indicating increased market trading activity and potential intensification of long - short divergence [1]. - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.83%, with the oil - based and coal - based operating rates at 72.38% and 55.64% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based processes and coal - based processes improved, while the profit of natural - gas - based processes declined [1]. - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, with overall stable demand [1]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 21,000 tons to 753,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang rose by 30,000 tons to 315,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend and increasing port pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract decreased by 103 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.69%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 95 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.49% [4]. - **利润情况**: The profits of various ethylene - based processes increased, the coal - based profit increased, while the natural - gas - based and oil - field associated - gas - based profits declined [4]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [4]. - **库存与到港量**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 2,100 tons, a 2.87% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 30,000 tons, a 10.53% increase [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 5, the negotiation center of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market moved down, and the decline expanded in the afternoon. - In the Shaanxi region, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market was lowered due to the decline in coal prices. - The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol remained weak, and the decline in crude oil and coal prices led to a collapse in cost - side support, and the spot basis continued to weaken. - In the mainstream market, the center of gravity declined, and the offers of holders in the South China market followed the decline, with a cold trading atmosphere [5] 4. Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The reasons are stable supply, continuous inventory accumulation, stable demand, and potential cost - side fluctuations. High inventory and weak demand dominate the downward pressure on prices [49][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol futures may continue to trade in a low-level consolidation pattern in the short term. The narrowing profit margin of coal-based production restricts the elasticity of domestic supply. The divergence between the high load of polyester factories and the low load of weaving machines reflects poor inventory transfer in the industrial chain. If there are no trend fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants in November and the seasonal inflection point of downstream orders [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped from 4,100 yuan/ton to 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66%. The intraday fluctuation range was 4,069 - 4,109 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China remained stable at 4,180 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 148 yuan/ton (futures at a discount), indicating that the support in the spot market was stronger than that in the futures market [1] - **持仓与成交**: The open interest of the main contract declined for four consecutive days to 312,500 lots, and the trading volume also decreased to 139,400 lots. The market trading activity decreased, reflecting a weakening divergence among funds on the short-term direction [1] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.12%. The operating rates of oil-based and coal-based production were maintained at 71.24% and 66.2% respectively. The profit of ethylene-based production processes improved significantly (e.g., the profit of DOW's chemical method rebounded by 129 yuan/ton), while the coal-based profit decreased by 13.4% to 336 yuan/ton. Fluctuations in coal prices at the cost end may suppress the willingness of coal-based plants to increase production in the future [1] - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. The seasonal weakening of terminal orders suppressed the replenishment momentum of the weaving sector, and there were blockages in demand transmission [1] - **库存端**: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 56,000 tons to 523,000 tons (a decrease of 9.67%). The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased sharply by 18.4% to 151,000 tons. The decrease in arrivals and the increase in port shipments promoted the reduction of visible inventory, and the short-term inventory pressure was significantly relieved [1] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract decreased from 4,100 yuan/ton to 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66%. The spot price in East China decreased from 4,180 yuan/ton to 4,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% [4] - **利润情况**: The profits of ethylene-based production processes generally improved, with increases ranging from 14.46% to 39.89%. The coal-based profit decreased by 13.41% to 336 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based production decreased by 1.94% and 8.38% respectively [4] - **产业链开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal-based operating rate, oil-based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine load remained unchanged. The ethylene-based operating rate decreased by 4.0% to 63.1%, and the methanol-based operating rate remained unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量情况**: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 56,000 tons to 523,000 tons, a decrease of 9.67%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 34,000 tons to 151,000 tons, a decrease of 18.38% [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 30, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market was stable in the morning, with near-month cargoes negotiated in the range of 489 - 492 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market moved down, with near-month cargoes negotiated in the range of 486 - 489 US dollars/ton, and transactions were heard within the range [5] - On October 30, the center of the mainstream market remained stable. The quotes of holders in the South China market remained stable, and the market negotiation was average, with the current delivery price around 4,260 yuan/ton [5] - On October 30, international oil prices rebounded, providing some support at the cost end. The fundamental pattern of ethylene glycol changed little, but the macro atmosphere improved slightly. The center of the ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the current negotiation price in East China around 4,160 yuan/ton [5] - On October 30, the spot quotes in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the average market price around 3,790 yuan/ton for self-pickup. The supply of coal-based products was tight, and downstream players' purchases were stable, so the quotes of Shaanxi products remained stable [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is expected to continue its low-level oscillation in the short term. The supply is stable, but the inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the downstream demand shows no obvious signs of improvement. High inventory and low trading volume may limit the price increase space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream demand changes [2][3][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the main ethylene glycol contract remained at 4003 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price in East China also remained stable at 4075 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton (spot premium), indicating no significant change in the futures-spot price difference structure. The short - term market lacks directional drivers [2] - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract decreased by 8944 lots to 331,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased slightly by 1542 lots to 159,000 lots. The simultaneous contraction of position and trading volume reflects a decline in market trading activity and an increase in capital's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 71.04%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 76.49% and 62.95% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based plants generally recovered, but the coal - based profits declined slightly. There may be marginal production increase motivation for oil - based plants, but the current operating rate has not reflected it [2] - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained at 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable at 63.43%. The terminal weaving demand has not improved, and the "scissors gap" between high polyester operation and low weaving machine load continues, which may lead to the transmission of polyester finished product inventory pressure to the raw material end [2] - **库存端**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang also increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons. The port inventory accumulation accelerated, reflecting the contradiction between import arrival pressure and insufficient domestic demand bearing capacity [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main MEG futures contract price remained at 4003 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 and a recent increase/decrease of 0.00%. The spot price in the East China market was 4075 yuan/ton, also unchanged [5] - **成交与持仓**: The trading volume of the main MEG futures contract decreased by 1542 lots to 158,594 lots, a decrease of 0.96%. The position decreased by 8944 lots to 331,426 lots, a decrease of 2.63% [5] - **利润情况**: The profits of ethylene - based production methods such as SD oxidation method, SHELL oxidation method, etc. increased, while the coal - based profit decreased by 23 yuan to 388 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas - based and oil - field associated gas - based production remained unchanged [5] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, and weaving machine loads in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, with a recent increase/decrease of 0.00% [5] - **库存与到港量**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, a 7.02% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons, a 12.12% increase [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 20, the focus of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market remained stable in the morning, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 480 - 484 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar market was deadlocked, with the negotiation range at 479 - 482 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On October 20, the mainstream market was operating at a low level. The South China market had limited fluctuations, the quotations of holders remained stable, and the market transactions were light, with the current price around 4250 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On October 20, international oil prices declined in the morning, but coal prices were strongly supported. Port inventories accumulated, and downstream players made low - level purchases. The market was deadlocked, with the current East China price negotiation reference around 4106 yuan/ton [6] - On October 20, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi was raised, with the market average price around 3800 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was operating at a low level, the manufacturers' shipments were smooth, and the quotations of Shaanxi goods were raised [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol is likely to continue its low - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The upper limit is restricted by port inventory pressure and the risk of coal - based cost collapse, while the lower limit is supported by oil - based costs. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - chemical production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on oil - based route costs. If inventory reduction fails to meet expectations, prices may face further pressure [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: On September 26, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan from the previous day, and the weekly decline widened to 0.78%. The East China spot price weakened to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened slightly to 77 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped sharply by 201 yuan to - 66 yuan/ton, indicating a pessimistic market expectation for future supply and demand [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract increased by 27.59% and 2.62% respectively, with open interest reaching 326,000 lots, indicating intensified capital games [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.78%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 74.39% and 62.95% respectively. The coal - based profit deteriorated further to - 584 yuan/ton, but the current supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was stable at 63.43%. The terminal demand improved seasonally to a limited extent, and the polyester sales were dull, resulting in mainly rigid procurement of ethylene glycol and a lack of incremental drivers [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory in the East China main port climbed to 48.57 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased, but the port shipping speed slowed down, and the explicit inventory pressure increased significantly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, the main contract price of MEG futures was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of MEG dropped by 148.89% to - 66 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.56% to - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 281.69% to 129 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: The coal - based profit decreased by 13.18% to - 584 yuan/ton, while the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production were not provided [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate remained unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load was 63.4% [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. c. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **September 28**: International oil prices rose slightly, with stable cost - side support. The ethylene glycol futures market was closed, and the market trading atmosphere was light. The East China price was around 4,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream market fluctuated slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was also stable [6]. - **September 26**: International oil prices fluctuated little, and the cost - side lacked driving force. The ethylene glycol supply - demand pattern was weak, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The East China price was around 4,293 yuan/ton. The mainstream market declined slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was stable [6]. d. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory in the East China main port [8][10][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol (MEG) may continue its low-level consolidation pattern in the short term. The high operating rate on the supply side and port inventory accumulation limit the upside potential, while the cost side restricts the downward flexibility of prices. The approaching peak season on the demand side provides some bullish sentiment, but the high load of polyester production and the weak inventory digestion ability offset each other. In the medium term, it is necessary to monitor the impact of crude oil and coal price fluctuations on the plant operating rate and whether the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking cycle at the end - user level can trigger port destocking. If the inventory pressure shows no sign of a turnaround, both futures and spot prices may test the cost support level of coal - based production again [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the MEG futures main contract dropped by 19 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%. The spot price in East China also fell by 10 yuan/ton to 4545 yuan/ton, but the basis widened from 31 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, indicating more pessimism in the futures market [3] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the main contract has been accumulating for four consecutive days, reaching 286,272 lots (a 6.34% increase), while the trading volume decreased by 18% to 151,958 lots, suggesting an increase in short - hedging or speculative forces. The divergence in the market has increased, but the liquidity has weakened marginally. The 1 - 5 spread widened to -41 yuan/ton, and the forward contango structure continued, reflecting concerns about the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction [3] - **Supply Side**: The overall operating rate of domestic MEG remained at a phased high of 66.22%. The operating loads of oil - based and coal - based plants remained stable at 67.11% and 65.12% respectively. The slight contraction in plant operation recently and the decline in import arrivals have prevented the short - term supply pressure from further increasing [3] - **Demand Side**: The operating load of polyester plants remained flat at 89.42%, and the operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. There was no increase in terminal orders. The demand side showed some resilience but lacked upward momentum, and the seasonal peak season of the industrial chain has not materialized [4] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China rapidly accumulated to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%). The inventory in Zhangjiagang jumped by 5.2 tons to 18 tons in a single week. The improvement in port unloading efficiency and the slowdown in rigid demand提货 led to a significant increase in inventory pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased to 4490 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%. The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 18.17% to 151,958 lots, and the position increased by 6.34% to 286,272 lots. The spot price in the East China market dropped to 4545 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [5] - **Spreads**: The MEG basis widened by 61.29% to 50 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to -41 yuan/ton (a 7.89% decrease), the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.19% to 91 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 15.25% to -50 yuan/ton [5] - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The coal - based production profit remained at -262 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of MEG, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plants, textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased to 48.6 tons (a 13.69% increase), the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased to 18 tons (a 40.62% increase), and the arrival volume decreased to 10.17 tons (a 39.72% decrease) [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 26, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market was firm in the morning and adjusted in the afternoon, with the negotiation range of near - month cargoes at 535 - 537 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On August 26, the spot quotation in the Shaanxi MEG market remained stable, with the average market price around 3990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The polyester operation was slowly increasing, and the downstream rigid demand for goods was stable [6] - On August 26, the prices in the mainstream market rose. The holders in the South China market tentatively raised their quotes, currently around 4550 - 4570 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On August 26, there was still support from the cost side. The domestic supply of MEG increased, but the import volume decreased. Coupled with the improvement in downstream demand, the MEG market continued to be strong, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4558 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the MEG futures main contract, MEG production profit, domestic MEG plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, MEG inventory statistics at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total industry inventory [7][9][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside is restricted by port inventory pressure and supply increments from increased operating rates, while the downside is supported by peak - season demand expectations and the momentum of near - month basis repair. - In the medium to long term, if there is no seasonal boost on the demand side, the contango structure of the far - month contracts may continue, and there is a risk of the price center falling. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil fluctuations on the cost of oil - based production and changes in polyester production and sales data [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Main Contract and Basis - The main contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 4,473 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating upward trend in the recent price range of 4,392 - 4,477 yuan/ton. The East China spot price remained stable at 4,510 yuan/ton, with a positive basis structure currently at 27 yuan/ton, slightly wider than before, indicating that the spot market is not significantly pressured. The 1 - 5 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with the far - month contracts at a discount, reflecting the market's unchanged expectation of medium - to - long - term supply abundance [1]. b. Position and Trading Volume - The position of the main contract increased to 244,437 lots, while the trading volume was 183,696 lots. The increase in position but decrease in trading volume suggest a slowdown in capital game, and the short - covering of some short positions may drive up the price [1]. c. Supply Side - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol rose to 66.22%, with the oil - based operating rate rebounding significantly by 3 percentage points to 67.11%, which is the main factor driving the supply increase. The coal - based operating rate remained at 65.12%, and the loads of methanol - based and ethylene - based production were stable. The marginal increase in coal - based supply gradually slowed down [1]. d. Demand Side - The load of polyester factories and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 89.42% and 63.43% respectively. At the end of the off - season, the load of polyester factories increased, and the downstream rigid demand was stable. However, the medium - to - long - term demand improvement still needs to be viewed with caution [1]. e. Inventory Side - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons week - on - week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The decrease in arrivals but slow port shipments led to a rapid inventory build - up, and the inventory pressure shifted to the spot market [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02% to 4,474 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14.92% to 156,291 lots, and the position increased by 2.10% to 249,567 lots. The East China spot price remained unchanged at 4,510 yuan/ton. The MEG basis decreased by 23.40% to 36 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 23.26% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.31% to 87 yuan/ton. The coal - based profit decreased by 0.69% to - 292 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile loom load remained unchanged. The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrivals decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 22, the East China US dollar market fluctuated narrowly, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 529 - 531 US dollars/ton in the morning and 527 - 529 US dollars/ton in the afternoon, and no transactions were heard. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The coal market price was firm, and the downstream took goods for rigid demand. - The price in the mainstream market remained stable, and the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable at around 4,530 yuan/ton for delivery. - Overnight oil prices rose, providing good cost - side support. The arrival of ethylene glycol ships decreased, and the port spot was tight. However, there were plans to restart two ethylene glycol plants, and the market adjusted narrowly, with the current East China price negotiated at around 4,516 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market continues to oscillate due to the combination of cost pressure and weak demand. Although there is a potential for future production cuts due to continuous losses in coal - based plants, the high arrival volume in the short term and the medium - to - high inventory level suppress price rebound. The high load of polyester provides some support, but weak orders in the weaving sector slow down the de - stocking process. The market lacks drivers to break through the current range, and attention should be paid to plant maintenance dynamics and actual port arrival rhythms [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The ethylene glycol futures price dropped from 4492 yuan/ton to 4478 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline. The spot price in East China fell by 15 yuan/ton to 4515 yuan/ton, and the basis expanded from 28 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded slightly by 1 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread widened by 2 yuan/ton to 44 yuan/ton [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 6409 lots to 252714 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13.06% to 154700 lots, indicating increased short - term trading activity and a multi - short game during price decline [2] - **Supply Side**: The operating rates of ethylene glycol processes remained stable, with oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based at 63.94%, 61.51%, and 62.4% respectively. However, the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and coal - based processes were still in deep losses, with coal - based profit at - 170 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The polyester plant load remained at a high of 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was 63.43%. Terminal orders in the seasonal off - season restricted demand, and downstream procurement of ethylene glycol was mainly for rigid needs [3] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased by 1.9 tons to 47.5 tons, and Zhangjiagang's inventory dropped by 0.9 tons to 14.8 tons. However, the arrival volume increased significantly by 2.7 tons to 15.9 tons, indicating potential future port inventory accumulation [3] 3.2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 4492 yuan/ton to 4478 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline, and the East China spot price fell by 15 yuan/ton to 4515 yuan/ton, a 0.33% decline [5] - **Spreads**: The basis expanded by 14 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton, a 50% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, a 5.88% increase; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to 44 yuan/ton, a 4.76% increase; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a 12% decrease [5] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 170 yuan/ton, while data on naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits were incomplete [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based all remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory decreased by 1.9 tons to 47.5 tons, a 3.85% decline; Zhangjiagang's inventory dropped by 0.9 tons to 14.8 tons, a 5.73% decline; the arrival volume increased by 2.7 tons to 15.9 tons, a 20.45% increase [5] 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 30, the morning trading in the East China US dollar market was stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 531 - 535 US dollars/ton, and no transactions reported. In the afternoon, the trading atmosphere was cold, with negotiations in the range of 530 - 532 US dollars/ton and no transactions [6] - On July 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was consolidating at a high level, and Shaanxi's supply quotes were firm [6] - On July 30, the mainstream market strengthened, and the price in the South China market increased slightly, with a certain price difference from the East China market, currently around 4600 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On July 30, international oil prices rose overnight, the morning market was firm, the cost side was favorable, and the macro commodity sentiment was positive. The ethylene glycol market price was strong, with the East China price negotiated around 4530 yuan/ton [6] 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a moderately strong trend in the short - term. Cost - side losses provide marginal support, but increased port arrivals and rising inventory suppress price increases. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to whether coal - chemical losses trigger production cuts, changes in the arrival rhythm of imported goods, and the boosting effect of policies on market sentiment [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Futures Market Data Analysis - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4453 yuan/ton to 4436 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.38%. The basis between futures and spot widened by 17 yuan to 54 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is slightly more resistant to decline than futures. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 19 yuan, reflecting increased concerns about short - term supply - demand pressure. The main contract's open interest decreased by 6180 lots to 262,000 lots, and trading volume shrank by 31% to 170,000 lots, showing increased market wait - and - see sentiment [1] b. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply side: The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based ethylene glycol remained stable at 63.94% and 57.9% respectively, but all process routes were in a state of full - line losses, with coal - based losses at 186 yuan/ton and methanol - based losses widening to 1277 yuan/ton. Sustained losses may affect future operating rate adjustments. - Demand side: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The demand side remained rigid but showed no signs of increase. - Inventory side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13,000 tons to 494,000 tons, and the arrival volume increased to 132,000 tons. Against the background of increased pressure of in - port goods, combined with a 8000 - ton inventory reduction in Zhangjiagang, it shows that the regional distribution capacity is limited [2] c. Price Trend Judgment - Ethylene glycol may continue its moderately strong and volatile pattern in the short - term. On the cost side, deep losses in oil - based and coal - based routes provide marginal support for prices. On the demand side, the rigid procurement of polyester cannot offset the increase in port arrivals. The inventory at the main ports increased for the first time in three weeks, suppressing the upside space of prices. In the medium - term, it is necessary to observe whether coal - chemical losses trigger production cuts and changes in the arrival rhythm of imported goods, and pay attention to the boosting effect of policies on market sentiment [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and spot prices: The main contract price of MEG futures dropped by 17 yuan to 4436 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.38%. The spot price in the East China market dropped by 10 yuan to 4500 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22%. The basis widened from 37 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.95%. - Spread: The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 19 yuan, a decline of 58.33%; the 5 - 9 spread widened to 19 yuan, an increase of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread changed from - 6 yuan to 0 yuan, an increase of 100%. - Profit: The profit of ethylene - based production increased by 4 yuan to - 677 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. Coal - based profit remained at - 186 yuan/ton, and methanol - based profit was - 1277 yuan/ton. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, ethylene - based, and methanol - based all remained unchanged. - Inventory and arrivals: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13,000 tons to 494,000 tons, a 2.79% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 8000 tons to 157,000 tons, a 4.73% decrease. The arrival volume increased by 21,000 tons to 132,000 tons, an 18.92% increase [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 23, the morning trading of the East China US - dollar market was slightly adjusted. The morning price of cargoes was negotiated around 528 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the noon price dropped to the range of 524 - 526 US dollars/ton, with no transactions reported. In the afternoon, there was limited change in the negotiation of the East China US - dollar market. The negotiation of near - month cargoes was in the range of 524 - 526 US dollars/ton, with no transactions reported. - On July 23, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 3900 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. There was a certain shipment pressure in the market, and manufacturers kept their quotes stable. - On July 22, the mainstream market was consolidating at a high level. The offer in the South China market remained stable, but the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was limited, and the current price was around 4500 yuan/ton for delivery. - On July 23, there were many pre - arrival volumes of ethylene glycol this week. However, international oil prices were fluctuating moderately upwards in the morning, providing some support on the cost side. Coupled with positive macro - guidance, the current price in East China was relatively stable, with the negotiation reference around 4475 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and total inventory of the ethylene glycol industry [7][9][11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].