Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol futures may continue to trade in a low-level consolidation pattern in the short term. The narrowing profit margin of coal-based production restricts the elasticity of domestic supply. The divergence between the high load of polyester factories and the low load of weaving machines reflects poor inventory transfer in the industrial chain. If there are no trend fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants in November and the seasonal inflection point of downstream orders [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped from 4,100 yuan/ton to 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66%. The intraday fluctuation range was 4,069 - 4,109 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China remained stable at 4,180 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 148 yuan/ton (futures at a discount), indicating that the support in the spot market was stronger than that in the futures market [1] - **持仓与成交**: The open interest of the main contract declined for four consecutive days to 312,500 lots, and the trading volume also decreased to 139,400 lots. The market trading activity decreased, reflecting a weakening divergence among funds on the short-term direction [1] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.12%. The operating rates of oil-based and coal-based production were maintained at 71.24% and 66.2% respectively. The profit of ethylene-based production processes improved significantly (e.g., the profit of DOW's chemical method rebounded by 129 yuan/ton), while the coal-based profit decreased by 13.4% to 336 yuan/ton. Fluctuations in coal prices at the cost end may suppress the willingness of coal-based plants to increase production in the future [1] - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. The seasonal weakening of terminal orders suppressed the replenishment momentum of the weaving sector, and there were blockages in demand transmission [1] - **库存端**: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 56,000 tons to 523,000 tons (a decrease of 9.67%). The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased sharply by 18.4% to 151,000 tons. The decrease in arrivals and the increase in port shipments promoted the reduction of visible inventory, and the short-term inventory pressure was significantly relieved [1] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract decreased from 4,100 yuan/ton to 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66%. The spot price in East China decreased from 4,180 yuan/ton to 4,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% [4] - **利润情况**: The profits of ethylene-based production processes generally improved, with increases ranging from 14.46% to 39.89%. The coal-based profit decreased by 13.41% to 336 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based production decreased by 1.94% and 8.38% respectively [4] - **产业链开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal-based operating rate, oil-based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine load remained unchanged. The ethylene-based operating rate decreased by 4.0% to 63.1%, and the methanol-based operating rate remained unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量情况**: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 56,000 tons to 523,000 tons, a decrease of 9.67%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 34,000 tons to 151,000 tons, a decrease of 18.38% [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 30, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market was stable in the morning, with near-month cargoes negotiated in the range of 489 - 492 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market moved down, with near-month cargoes negotiated in the range of 486 - 489 US dollars/ton, and transactions were heard within the range [5] - On October 30, the center of the mainstream market remained stable. The quotes of holders in the South China market remained stable, and the market negotiation was average, with the current delivery price around 4,260 yuan/ton [5] - On October 30, international oil prices rebounded, providing some support at the cost end. The fundamental pattern of ethylene glycol changed little, but the macro atmosphere improved slightly. The center of the ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the current negotiation price in East China around 4,160 yuan/ton [5] - On October 30, the spot quotes in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the average market price around 3,790 yuan/ton for self-pickup. The supply of coal-based products was tight, and downstream players' purchases were stable, so the quotes of Shaanxi products remained stable [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is expected to continue its low-level oscillation in the short term. The supply is stable, but the inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the downstream demand shows no obvious signs of improvement. High inventory and low trading volume may limit the price increase space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream demand changes [2][3][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the main ethylene glycol contract remained at 4003 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price in East China also remained stable at 4075 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton (spot premium), indicating no significant change in the futures-spot price difference structure. The short - term market lacks directional drivers [2] - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract decreased by 8944 lots to 331,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased slightly by 1542 lots to 159,000 lots. The simultaneous contraction of position and trading volume reflects a decline in market trading activity and an increase in capital's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 71.04%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 76.49% and 62.95% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based plants generally recovered, but the coal - based profits declined slightly. There may be marginal production increase motivation for oil - based plants, but the current operating rate has not reflected it [2] - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained at 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable at 63.43%. The terminal weaving demand has not improved, and the "scissors gap" between high polyester operation and low weaving machine load continues, which may lead to the transmission of polyester finished product inventory pressure to the raw material end [2] - **库存端**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang also increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons. The port inventory accumulation accelerated, reflecting the contradiction between import arrival pressure and insufficient domestic demand bearing capacity [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main MEG futures contract price remained at 4003 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 and a recent increase/decrease of 0.00%. The spot price in the East China market was 4075 yuan/ton, also unchanged [5] - **成交与持仓**: The trading volume of the main MEG futures contract decreased by 1542 lots to 158,594 lots, a decrease of 0.96%. The position decreased by 8944 lots to 331,426 lots, a decrease of 2.63% [5] - **利润情况**: The profits of ethylene - based production methods such as SD oxidation method, SHELL oxidation method, etc. increased, while the coal - based profit decreased by 23 yuan to 388 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas - based and oil - field associated gas - based production remained unchanged [5] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, and weaving machine loads in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, with a recent increase/decrease of 0.00% [5] - **库存与到港量**: The inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 38,000 tons to 579,000 tons, a 7.02% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 20,000 tons to 185,000 tons, a 12.12% increase [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 20, the focus of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market remained stable in the morning, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 480 - 484 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar market was deadlocked, with the negotiation range at 479 - 482 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On October 20, the mainstream market was operating at a low level. The South China market had limited fluctuations, the quotations of holders remained stable, and the market transactions were light, with the current price around 4250 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On October 20, international oil prices declined in the morning, but coal prices were strongly supported. Port inventories accumulated, and downstream players made low - level purchases. The market was deadlocked, with the current East China price negotiation reference around 4106 yuan/ton [6] - On October 20, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi was raised, with the market average price around 3800 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was operating at a low level, the manufacturers' shipments were smooth, and the quotations of Shaanxi goods were raised [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol is likely to continue its low - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The upper limit is restricted by port inventory pressure and the risk of coal - based cost collapse, while the lower limit is supported by oil - based costs. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - chemical production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on oil - based route costs. If inventory reduction fails to meet expectations, prices may face further pressure [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: On September 26, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan from the previous day, and the weekly decline widened to 0.78%. The East China spot price weakened to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened slightly to 77 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped sharply by 201 yuan to - 66 yuan/ton, indicating a pessimistic market expectation for future supply and demand [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract increased by 27.59% and 2.62% respectively, with open interest reaching 326,000 lots, indicating intensified capital games [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.78%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 74.39% and 62.95% respectively. The coal - based profit deteriorated further to - 584 yuan/ton, but the current supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was stable at 63.43%. The terminal demand improved seasonally to a limited extent, and the polyester sales were dull, resulting in mainly rigid procurement of ethylene glycol and a lack of incremental drivers [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory in the East China main port climbed to 48.57 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased, but the port shipping speed slowed down, and the explicit inventory pressure increased significantly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, the main contract price of MEG futures was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of MEG dropped by 148.89% to - 66 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.56% to - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 281.69% to 129 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: The coal - based profit decreased by 13.18% to - 584 yuan/ton, while the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production were not provided [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate remained unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load was 63.4% [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. c. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **September 28**: International oil prices rose slightly, with stable cost - side support. The ethylene glycol futures market was closed, and the market trading atmosphere was light. The East China price was around 4,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream market fluctuated slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was also stable [6]. - **September 26**: International oil prices fluctuated little, and the cost - side lacked driving force. The ethylene glycol supply - demand pattern was weak, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The East China price was around 4,293 yuan/ton. The mainstream market declined slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was stable [6]. d. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory in the East China main port [8][10][12]

成本端回调打击盘面，MEG整理等待向上突破时机 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格下跌19元/吨至4490元/吨，跌幅 0.42%，现货华东价格同步下跌10元/吨至4545元/吨，但基差从31元/吨扩 大至50元/吨，显示期货市场悲观情绪更为显著。持仓量连续四日攀升至 286272手（增幅6.34%），而成交量下降18%至151958手，暗示空头套保或 投机力量增强。 持仓与成交：近期主力合约持仓持续累积但成交下滑，表明当前市场分歧 加大但流动性边际走弱。跨期价差方面，1-5价差走扩至-41元/吨，远期贴 水结构延续，反映市场对中长期供需矛盾仍存担忧。 供给端：国内乙二醇总体开工率维持66.22%的阶段性高位，油制与煤制装 置负荷分别持稳于67.11%、65.12%，装置开工近期小幅收缩叠加进口到港 量回落，短期供应压力未进一步放大。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷持平于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside is restricted by port inventory pressure and supply increments from increased operating rates, while the downside is supported by peak - season demand expectations and the momentum of near - month basis repair. - In the medium to long term, if there is no seasonal boost on the demand side, the contango structure of the far - month contracts may continue, and there is a risk of the price center falling. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil fluctuations on the cost of oil - based production and changes in polyester production and sales data [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Main Contract and Basis - The main contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 4,473 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating upward trend in the recent price range of 4,392 - 4,477 yuan/ton. The East China spot price remained stable at 4,510 yuan/ton, with a positive basis structure currently at 27 yuan/ton, slightly wider than before, indicating that the spot market is not significantly pressured. The 1 - 5 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with the far - month contracts at a discount, reflecting the market's unchanged expectation of medium - to - long - term supply abundance [1]. b. Position and Trading Volume - The position of the main contract increased to 244,437 lots, while the trading volume was 183,696 lots. The increase in position but decrease in trading volume suggest a slowdown in capital game, and the short - covering of some short positions may drive up the price [1]. c. Supply Side - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol rose to 66.22%, with the oil - based operating rate rebounding significantly by 3 percentage points to 67.11%, which is the main factor driving the supply increase. The coal - based operating rate remained at 65.12%, and the loads of methanol - based and ethylene - based production were stable. The marginal increase in coal - based supply gradually slowed down [1]. d. Demand Side - The load of polyester factories and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 89.42% and 63.43% respectively. At the end of the off - season, the load of polyester factories increased, and the downstream rigid demand was stable. However, the medium - to - long - term demand improvement still needs to be viewed with caution [1]. e. Inventory Side - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons week - on - week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The decrease in arrivals but slow port shipments led to a rapid inventory build - up, and the inventory pressure shifted to the spot market [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02% to 4,474 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14.92% to 156,291 lots, and the position increased by 2.10% to 249,567 lots. The East China spot price remained unchanged at 4,510 yuan/ton. The MEG basis decreased by 23.40% to 36 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 23.26% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.31% to 87 yuan/ton. The coal - based profit decreased by 0.69% to - 292 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile loom load remained unchanged. The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrivals decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 22, the East China US dollar market fluctuated narrowly, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 529 - 531 US dollars/ton in the morning and 527 - 529 US dollars/ton in the afternoon, and no transactions were heard. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The coal market price was firm, and the downstream took goods for rigid demand. - The price in the mainstream market remained stable, and the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable at around 4,530 yuan/ton for delivery. - Overnight oil prices rose, providing good cost - side support. The arrival of ethylene glycol ships decreased, and the port spot was tight. However, there were plans to restart two ethylene glycol plants, and the market adjusted narrowly, with the current East China price negotiated at around 4,516 yuan/ton [5].

成本压制与港口累库隐现，乙二醇延续震荡格局 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力期货价格从4492元/吨下跌至4478元/吨，跌 幅0.31%，日内波动区间为4464-4543元/吨，显示价格上行遇阻。华东现货 价格同步回落15元/吨至4515元/吨，基差从28元/吨扩张至42元/吨，现货 贴水收窄，表明短期现货支撑力度略有增强但整体仍偏弱。远月价差结构 方面，1-5价差小幅反弹1元/吨至-16元/吨，5-9价差扩大2元/吨至44元/ 吨，近月合约承压明显。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量减少6409手至252714手，持仓连续下滑反映 资金观望情绪升温。但成交环比增长13.06%至15.47万手，显示日内短线交 易活跃度提升，价格下跌过程中存在多空博弈。 供给端：乙二醇各工艺开工率维持稳定，油制、煤制、甲醇制开工率分别 持平于63.94%、61.51%、62.4%，整体供给端暂无明显边际变化。但石脑油 制、乙烯制及煤制工艺利润仍处深度亏损区间，其中煤制利润-170元/吨维 持低位，成本端压制持续制约供应弹性。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷保持89.42%的高位，江浙织机负荷63.43%同样持 平，终端订单季节性 ...

市场情绪引发成本价格上升，乙二醇延续偏强预期 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格从4453元/吨小幅回落至4436元/ 吨，跌幅0.38%，期现基差扩大17元至54元/吨，表明现货抗跌性略强于期 货。月间价差方面，1-5价差走阔至-19元，反映市场对近月供需压力担忧 增加。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量下降6180手至26.2万手，成交缩量31%至17万 手，短期流动性下降显示市场观望情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：乙二醇油制/煤制开工率维持63.94%和57.9%的稳定水平，但各工 艺路线利润仍全线亏损，其中煤制亏损186元/吨，甲醇制亏损扩大至1277 元/吨，持续亏损或影响未来开工调整。 价格走势判断 乙二醇短期或延续震荡偏强格局。成本端看，油制/煤制路线深度亏损对价 格形成边际支撑，需求端聚酯刚性采购难抵港口到货增量，主港库存三周 来首现回升，压制价格上行空间。中期需观察煤化工亏损是否触发减产以 及进口货源到港节奏变化，关注政策面对市场情绪的提振作用。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].