港口累库压制供需僵持，乙二醇延续弱势运行 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力合约价格延续弱势，9月26日收于4213元/ 吨，较前一日下跌33元，周内跌幅扩大至0.78%。华东现货价格同步走弱至 4275元/吨，基差小幅走强至77元/吨，反映现货端相对期货的支撑有所增 强。跨期价差波动剧烈，5-9价差单日下跌201元至-66元/吨，显示市场对 远期供需预期转向悲观。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量和持仓量分别增加27.59%和2.62%，持仓增 至32.6万手，资金博弈加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率维持69.78%的稳定水平，油制及煤制开工率分 别持稳于74.39%和62.95%。煤制利润进一步恶化至-584元/吨，亏损扩大可 能压制煤化工装置复产意愿，但当前供应尚未明显收缩。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷维持89.42%高位，江浙织机负荷稳定于 63.43%，终端需求季节性改善有限，聚酯产销平淡导致对乙二醇的刚性采 购为主，缺乏增量驱动。 库存端 ：华东主港库存攀升至48.57万吨，周环比增加13.7%，张家港库存 激增40.6%至18万吨，到港量下降但港口发货速度放缓，显性库存压力显著 上升， ...

成本端回调打击盘面，MEG整理等待向上突破时机 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格下跌19元/吨至4490元/吨，跌幅 0.42%，现货华东价格同步下跌10元/吨至4545元/吨，但基差从31元/吨扩 大至50元/吨，显示期货市场悲观情绪更为显著。持仓量连续四日攀升至 286272手（增幅6.34%），而成交量下降18%至151958手，暗示空头套保或 投机力量增强。 持仓与成交：近期主力合约持仓持续累积但成交下滑，表明当前市场分歧 加大但流动性边际走弱。跨期价差方面，1-5价差走扩至-41元/吨，远期贴 水结构延续，反映市场对中长期供需矛盾仍存担忧。 供给端：国内乙二醇总体开工率维持66.22%的阶段性高位，油制与煤制装 置负荷分别持稳于67.11%、65.12%，装置开工近期小幅收缩叠加进口到港 量回落，短期供应压力未进一步放大。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷持平于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside is restricted by port inventory pressure and supply increments from increased operating rates, while the downside is supported by peak - season demand expectations and the momentum of near - month basis repair. - In the medium to long term, if there is no seasonal boost on the demand side, the contango structure of the far - month contracts may continue, and there is a risk of the price center falling. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil fluctuations on the cost of oil - based production and changes in polyester production and sales data [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Main Contract and Basis - The main contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 4,473 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating upward trend in the recent price range of 4,392 - 4,477 yuan/ton. The East China spot price remained stable at 4,510 yuan/ton, with a positive basis structure currently at 27 yuan/ton, slightly wider than before, indicating that the spot market is not significantly pressured. The 1 - 5 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with the far - month contracts at a discount, reflecting the market's unchanged expectation of medium - to - long - term supply abundance [1]. b. Position and Trading Volume - The position of the main contract increased to 244,437 lots, while the trading volume was 183,696 lots. The increase in position but decrease in trading volume suggest a slowdown in capital game, and the short - covering of some short positions may drive up the price [1]. c. Supply Side - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol rose to 66.22%, with the oil - based operating rate rebounding significantly by 3 percentage points to 67.11%, which is the main factor driving the supply increase. The coal - based operating rate remained at 65.12%, and the loads of methanol - based and ethylene - based production were stable. The marginal increase in coal - based supply gradually slowed down [1]. d. Demand Side - The load of polyester factories and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 89.42% and 63.43% respectively. At the end of the off - season, the load of polyester factories increased, and the downstream rigid demand was stable. However, the medium - to - long - term demand improvement still needs to be viewed with caution [1]. e. Inventory Side - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons week - on - week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The decrease in arrivals but slow port shipments led to a rapid inventory build - up, and the inventory pressure shifted to the spot market [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02% to 4,474 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14.92% to 156,291 lots, and the position increased by 2.10% to 249,567 lots. The East China spot price remained unchanged at 4,510 yuan/ton. The MEG basis decreased by 23.40% to 36 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 23.26% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.31% to 87 yuan/ton. The coal - based profit decreased by 0.69% to - 292 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile loom load remained unchanged. The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrivals decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 22, the East China US dollar market fluctuated narrowly, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 529 - 531 US dollars/ton in the morning and 527 - 529 US dollars/ton in the afternoon, and no transactions were heard. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The coal market price was firm, and the downstream took goods for rigid demand. - The price in the mainstream market remained stable, and the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable at around 4,530 yuan/ton for delivery. - Overnight oil prices rose, providing good cost - side support. The arrival of ethylene glycol ships decreased, and the port spot was tight. However, there were plans to restart two ethylene glycol plants, and the market adjusted narrowly, with the current East China price negotiated at around 4,516 yuan/ton [5].

成本压制与港口累库隐现，乙二醇延续震荡格局 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力期货价格从4492元/吨下跌至4478元/吨，跌 幅0.31%，日内波动区间为4464-4543元/吨，显示价格上行遇阻。华东现货 价格同步回落15元/吨至4515元/吨，基差从28元/吨扩张至42元/吨，现货 贴水收窄，表明短期现货支撑力度略有增强但整体仍偏弱。远月价差结构 方面，1-5价差小幅反弹1元/吨至-16元/吨，5-9价差扩大2元/吨至44元/ 吨，近月合约承压明显。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量减少6409手至252714手，持仓连续下滑反映 资金观望情绪升温。但成交环比增长13.06%至15.47万手，显示日内短线交 易活跃度提升，价格下跌过程中存在多空博弈。 供给端：乙二醇各工艺开工率维持稳定，油制、煤制、甲醇制开工率分别 持平于63.94%、61.51%、62.4%，整体供给端暂无明显边际变化。但石脑油 制、乙烯制及煤制工艺利润仍处深度亏损区间，其中煤制利润-170元/吨维 持低位，成本端压制持续制约供应弹性。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷保持89.42%的高位，江浙织机负荷63.43%同样持 平，终端订单季节性 ...

市场情绪引发成本价格上升，乙二醇延续偏强预期 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格从4453元/吨小幅回落至4436元/ 吨，跌幅0.38%，期现基差扩大17元至54元/吨，表明现货抗跌性略强于期 货。月间价差方面，1-5价差走阔至-19元，反映市场对近月供需压力担忧 增加。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量下降6180手至26.2万手，成交缩量31%至17万 手，短期流动性下降显示市场观望情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：乙二醇油制/煤制开工率维持63.94%和57.9%的稳定水平，但各工 艺路线利润仍全线亏损，其中煤制亏损186元/吨，甲醇制亏损扩大至1277 元/吨，持续亏损或影响未来开工调整。 价格走势判断 乙二醇短期或延续震荡偏强格局。成本端看，油制/煤制路线深度亏损对价 格形成边际支撑，需求端聚酯刚性采购难抵港口到货增量，主港库存三周 来首现回升，压制价格上行空间。中期需观察煤化工亏损是否触发减产以 及进口货源到港节奏变化，关注政策面对市场情绪的提振作用。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].