市场情绪引发成本价格上升，乙二醇延续偏强预期 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格从4453元/吨小幅回落至4436元/ 吨，跌幅0.38%，期现基差扩大17元至54元/吨，表明现货抗跌性略强于期 货。月间价差方面，1-5价差走阔至-19元，反映市场对近月供需压力担忧 增加。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量下降6180手至26.2万手，成交缩量31%至17万 手，短期流动性下降显示市场观望情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：乙二醇油制/煤制开工率维持63.94%和57.9%的稳定水平，但各工 艺路线利润仍全线亏损，其中煤制亏损186元/吨，甲醇制亏损扩大至1277 元/吨，持续亏损或影响未来开工调整。 价格走势判断 乙二醇短期或延续震荡偏强格局。成本端看，油制/煤制路线深度亏损对价 格形成边际支撑，需求端聚酯刚性采购难抵港口到货增量，主港库存三周 来首现回升，压制价格上行空间。中期需观察煤化工亏损是否触发减产以 及进口货源到港节奏变化，关注政策面对市场情绪的提振作用。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].