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低库存与产能过剩 乙二醇上方空间或有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-18 06:40
Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 4485.00 yuan and currently trading at 4456.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.97% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures indicates that ethylene glycol is maintaining an overall oscillation pattern, with supply-side data showing a rise in operating rates to 56.5% as of June 16, supported by good profits. However, geopolitical issues in Iran have led to a decrease in imports, while demand from polyester production remains high at 89.7% [2] - Donghai Futures suggests that ethylene glycol prices will remain stable, with limited short-term inventory reduction and a noticeable return of synthetic gas production. The price is expected to stabilize for a while [3] - Southwest Futures notes that the upper price limit for ethylene glycol may be constrained, advising a cautious bullish approach. The geopolitical situation has led to reduced imports from Iran, which may temporarily boost prices, but overall supply and demand are weakening [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side factors include a decrease in imports due to geopolitical tensions, while demand-side factors show a stable operating rate in downstream weaving at 68.33%. However, demand is expected to decline as the peak export season ends and the market enters a low-demand period [2] - Inventory levels are low, with a continued decline in East China port inventories as of June 16, indicating minimal inventory pressure on ethylene glycol [2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on monitoring port inventory and import changes to gauge future price movements [4]