Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 4485.00 yuan and currently trading at 4456.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.97% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures indicates that ethylene glycol is maintaining an overall oscillation pattern, with supply-side data showing a rise in operating rates to 56.5% as of June 16, supported by good profits. However, geopolitical issues in Iran have led to a decrease in imports, while demand from polyester production remains high at 89.7% [2] - Donghai Futures suggests that ethylene glycol prices will remain stable, with limited short-term inventory reduction and a noticeable return of synthetic gas production. The price is expected to stabilize for a while [3] - Southwest Futures notes that the upper price limit for ethylene glycol may be constrained, advising a cautious bullish approach. The geopolitical situation has led to reduced imports from Iran, which may temporarily boost prices, but overall supply and demand are weakening [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side factors include a decrease in imports due to geopolitical tensions, while demand-side factors show a stable operating rate in downstream weaving at 68.33%. However, demand is expected to decline as the peak export season ends and the market enters a low-demand period [2] - Inventory levels are low, with a continued decline in East China port inventories as of June 16, indicating minimal inventory pressure on ethylene glycol [2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on monitoring port inventory and import changes to gauge future price movements [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,179 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,216 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spot basis of EG in East China was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After Trump's attitude softened, concerns about plant shutdowns due to high ethane import tariffs eased on Thursday, leading to a decline in EG prices [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$66/ton, up $3/ton from the previous period. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -227 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 77.5 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 68.8 tons, down 1.9 tons from last week. The planned arrivals at major ports this week were 19.6 tons, slightly on the high side. The inventory has rebounded compared to Monday. The current inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory is still high. Attention should be paid to the impact of de - stocking on port inventory [1]. - On the supply side, with the centralized maintenance of coal - based plants, the domestic supply of EG has declined. The Sino - US trade war also affects the supply of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the polyester load has remained stable at a high level in the near term, but the textile and clothing orders directly exported to the US are still on hold. The overall EG inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years. There is some de - stocking support in April, but the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still high, limiting the actual de - stocking amplitude of port inventory [1][2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge MEG. Given the US tariff increase and OPEC+ production increase, the medium - term outlook for crude oil prices is weak. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations. The fundamentals of MEG itself are acceptable, but the textile and clothing demand outlook remains weak due to the suspension of direct exports to the US [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price of EG in the East China market, and the spot basis of EG in East China, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as their changes from the previous period [1]. International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol is presented [17]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Information on the sales and production of long - filament and short - fiber, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun long - filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip is provided [18][20][24]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory of ethylene glycol at major ports in East China, including overall inventory and inventory at specific ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at major ports in East China are given [1][28][31][33][36].