乙二醇期货

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五矿期货文字早评-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 01:00
文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面: 1、工信部:将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术; 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布,办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议,坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争,坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产; 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示,形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称,美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例: IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季:0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%; IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%; IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%; IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季:0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑:中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性,巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头, 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...
建信期货MEG日报-20250821
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:57
行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 21 日 料油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 业硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 ...
西南期货早间评论-20250820
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 03:18
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].
建信期货MEG日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:50
Report Information - Report Title: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 18th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4383, with a high of 4383, a low of 4340, a settlement price of 4353, and a closing price of 4346, down 28 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 91,926 lots, and the open interest was 128,989 lots [7]. - The current supply - demand structure is weak, and there is insufficient incremental support from the macro - level. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a weak trend in the short term [7]. Industry News - Traders were cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and crude oil futures gave up most of the previous day's gains. On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [8]. - The spot negotiation price of the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for late August was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, and for late September was 4433 - 4435 yuan/ton. This week, the spot basis was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, the basis for late August cargo was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, and the basis for late September was at a premium of 87 - 89 yuan/ton over EG2509 [8]. - The prices of short - fiber factories were relatively stable, while the prices of traders increased slightly. Due to cost push, downstream demand was weak, and the on - site trading volume was scarce. The mainstream sales - to - production ratio of factories was 40.41% [8]. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including MEG futures prices, futures - spot price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]
西南期货早间评论-20250818
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 06:19
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].
建信期货MEG日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:04
行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 15 日 料油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 业硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 ...
西南期货早间评论-20250814
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:05
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and
IEA报表:原油2026年过剩幅度创纪录,原油带动油化回落
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide a specific overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, individual product outlooks suggest a mix of trends, with many products expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation with a downward bias" in the short - term [9][11][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA monthly report indicates that in 2026, the global oil surplus will reach a record high due to slowed demand growth and increased supply. The oil market is currently under pressure, and the chemical industry chain is likely to face an oversupply situation. High - inventory varieties may experience a small - scale adjustment, and the future demand trend will determine the performance of the January contracts [2][3]. - The stock market is performing strongly, while the oil market is weak. The seasonal peak of global aviation kerosene demand is about to subside, which has a negative impact on medium - distillate products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs A. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure still exists. The EIA data shows that the demand at the refinery level in the US in the week of August 8th was relatively strong, but the overall inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased, which is bearish. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th may reduce concerns about Russian oil supply and the geopolitical premium [2][9]. - **Stock Market**: The US stock market has soared to a record high due to mild inflation data, and the stock markets in other regions of the world are also performing well [2]. B. Product - Specific Analysis - **Asphalt**: It has fallen below the important support level of 3500 yuan. The futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. The increase in OPEC+ production, potential tariff hikes, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are all negative factors. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and its valuation is relatively high [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak oscillatory state. The increase in supply due to OPEC+ production hikes, the increase in import tariffs in China, weak demand in the US gasoline and Middle - East power - generation sectors, and the weakening of the three driving factors (Russia - Ukraine conflict, local refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict) all contribute to the supply - demand imbalance [11][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price is oscillating weakly following the trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the increase in domestic refined - oil supply pressure [13]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and it is in an oscillatory state. The production profit is relatively high, but the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [29]. - **Urea**: Supported by orders and market sentiment, the futures price has temporarily stabilized and strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has slowed down, and the daily production is at a high level. The market is mainly supported by pending orders and macro - sentiment, and its future trend depends on actual demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is in an oscillatory state. The supply change is limited, and the downstream polyester load is stable, but the overall sales performance is poor [22][23]. - **PX**: The cost support has weakened again, and the entire polyester chain is in a downward trend. The supply pressure continues, and the cost support in the short - term has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate at a low level following the upstream cost [15]. - **PTA**: The cost support has weakened, the sales performance is mediocre, and the warehouse - receipt pressure has increased. The supply has increased while the demand has weakened, and the short - term price will follow the cost for low - level consolidation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and inventory replenishment is cautious. The upstream raw material price has declined, the cost support is weak, and the short - term price will oscillate at a low level [25][26]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The upstream polymerization cost support has declined, and the overall supply - demand situation has changed little [26][27]. - **PP**: Supply still exists, and it is in an oscillatory state. The coal and oil markets have an impact on it. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition, with a slow increase in downstream开工 [35][36]. - **Propylene**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 yuan is considered reasonable, and PL is in a short - term oscillatory state. The PDH enterprises in some areas are under maintenance, and the spot market is temporarily stable [36]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. It is in an oscillatory state. Oil prices are oscillating weakly, the macro - level has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in a slow transition from the off - season to the peak season [33][34]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume has decreased, and downstream production capacity has been put into operation. The buying sentiment has increased, and the market structure has changed to Back. The port inventory has decreased, which has boosted market sentiment, and the short - term fundamentals are okay [17][20]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak [20][22]. - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is expected to rise [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the market is cautiously optimistic. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand from the alumina industry, improved export orders, and high - level production [40]. C. Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing different trends of change [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse - receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [42]. - **Inter - product Spread**: Data on inter - product spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, which helps in analyzing the relative valuation between different products [44].
建信期货MEG日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:59
料油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 业硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 13 日 ...
五矿期货文字早评-20250812
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - financial sector, the policy shows care for the capital market. The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility but is mainly a dip - buying opportunity. The bond market is expected to see interest rates decline in the long run, with short - term fluctuations [3][6]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term disturbances from tariff expectations, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper, aluminum, and other metals have different price trends. Some metals are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while others are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policy [11][12]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may face downward pressure if demand cannot be effectively repaired. The focus of the black sector is on coking coal, and iron ore fluctuates with sentiment and fundamentals [24][26]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is considered undervalued and a good left - hand layout opportunity, while some products like PVC and PTA face supply - demand and valuation challenges [43][48]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and sugar have different price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market sentiment [57][58]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited opinions on the draft of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The draft of the Regulations on Promoting the Development of Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou was open for public comments. The Central Settlement Company simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [2]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy shows care for the capital market. After a previous continuous rise, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general idea is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan on the day [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but export pressure may increase in the future. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices declined. The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was falsified, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term disturbances, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated and declined. LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount. Domestic social inventory slightly declined, and the spot premium increased. The import loss was about 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: Under the expectation of Fed rate cuts, there is support from the emotional side. Copper raw material supply is tight in the short term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs forms upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the LME inventory also increased. The spot was at a discount, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The market sentiment is neutral and positive. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and external demand is resilient, but there is pressure from weak downstream consumption and trade uncertainties. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile [12]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore is in a loose state, domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The LME market has structural disturbances [13]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the mid - term industry is in an oversupply situation, the low LME warehouse receipts support short - term zinc prices, making it difficult for them to decline [13]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased in August, and the supply side narrowed slightly. Downstream consumption pressure is large, and the battery factory's operating rate declined rapidly [14][15]. - **Price Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the nickel - iron market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply pressure still exists. The spot market trading of refined nickel is average [16]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term macro sentiment is positive, but downstream demand improvement is limited, and prices still have correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the start - up rate has rebounded slightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Social inventory decreased slightly last week [17]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak. With the continuous progress of resumption in Myanmar, the upward space for tin prices is limited [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures contract limit up. The market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of a lithium mine [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize appropriate entry points according to their own operations [18]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels according to market sentiment, and pay attention to warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Social inventory decreased, and some specifications were in short supply. Raw material prices remained stable [20]. - **Price Outlook**: With the change of seasons and the improvement of the macro environment, stainless steel prices may be volatile and strong in August [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly, and the spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume was low, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are both weak. The upward space for prices is limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and social inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and if demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of terminal demand repair and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased. Steel mill iron water production decreased slightly, and port inventory fluctuated slightly [25][26]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season. There is still demand support, and it is necessary to pay attention to terminal demand changes [26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot prices declined, and inventory increased. Market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices significantly corrected. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot prices were stable, and inventory increased slightly. Supply increased, and downstream procurement slowed down. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. The market is affected by emotions in the short term, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals in the long term [31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price increased, and the basis was positive. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to industry policies [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the basis was negative. Supply is expected to increase in August, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, and prices are expected to be volatile in a wide range [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU fluctuated and rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall, with the long side emphasizing production reduction and demand improvement, and the short side emphasizing uncertain macro expectations and off - season demand [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral attitude, operate quickly in and out, and consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [42]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, while INE crude oil prices declined. Chinese crude oil and refined product inventories increased [43]. - **Outlook**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued and are a good left - hand layout opportunity [43]. Methanol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. Domestic production decreased again, and port inventory increased rapidly [44]. - **Strategy**: Methanol valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short as a variety in the sector [44]. Urea - **Market**: Futures prices fell, and the spot price also fell. Domestic production continued to decline, and demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [45]. - **Strategy**: Urea valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low levels [45]. Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose. The cost side has support, and the BZN spread is at a low level and has upward repair space [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and after the high - level inventory in ports is reduced, styrene prices may follow the cost side and rise [47]. PVC - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. Production increased, and downstream demand was weak. Inventory increased, and the valuation pressure was large [48]. - **Price Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to pay attention to whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply declined slightly, and downstream demand increased slightly. Port inventory increased [49]. - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [49]. PTA - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Demand is about to end the off - season [50][51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX at low levels in the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the CFR price also rose. PX load is at a high level, and downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased. Inventory may continue to decline [52]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil at low levels in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance. Trade inventory is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: Futures prices rose. Shandong refinery profits rebounded, and the supply of propylene may increase. Demand is in the off - season [54]. - **Price Outlook**: In July, prices may follow crude oil and be volatile and strong [54]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market**: Hog prices were mixed. The spot price continued to weaken, and the trading average weight decreased. The release of current inventory can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on medium - and long - term contracts on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and a few areas rose slightly. The supply was still sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose, and domestic soybean meal fell slightly. The spot basis was stable, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at low levels in the cost range, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [60]. Fats and Oils - **Market**: Palm oil prices rose sharply. Supported by the expected B50 policy in Indonesia, demand is stable, and Southeast Asian inventory is low [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of fats and oils is supported, but the upward space is limited. Palm oil prices may be stable in the short term and have an upward expectation in the fourth quarter [62]. Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were volatile. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity increased slightly, and the export volume to China decreased [63][64]. - **Price Outlook**: International and domestic sugar supplies are expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates decreased, and inventory decreased [65]. - **Price Outlook**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the market is bearish. The short - term trend is bearish [65].