1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23rd, due to the improvement in ethylene glycol supply - demand expectations and a large inflow of funds into the chemical sector, the ethylene glycol futures main contract EG2605 hit the daily limit, rising 5.99% [1] - The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure, but in the second quarter, the supply - demand is expected to improve and enter the de - stocking channel [6] - Short - term ethylene glycol still has an upward expectation. It is not recommended to short. Long - position traders can buy call options or sell out - of - the - money put options (strike price not higher than 3800). Also, pay attention to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Condition - On January 23rd, the ethylene glycol futures main contract EG2605 hit the daily limit, with a 5.99% increase, driven by improved supply - demand expectations and capital inflow into the chemical sector [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Overseas Supply - Since January, multiple overseas ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance. Two plants of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year were shut down for maintenance in early January. A 450,000 - ton/year plant in Saudi Arabia has been shut down and is expected to restart from late February to early March. Other plants with capacities of 450,000 tons, 380,000 tons, and 700,000 tons in Saudi Arabia are also shut down. The import volume in February is expected to drop to around 600,000 tons, and port inventory build - up will be limited [2] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - According to CCF statistics, multiple domestic large - scale ethylene glycol plants will be shut down for maintenance or switch production in the second quarter. For example, a 900,000 - ton/year plant in Lianyungang plans to shut down and switch production around mid - February, the 1,000,000 - ton/year plant of Shenghong will remain shut down until the third and fourth quarters of 2026, and the 1,800,000 - ton/year plant of Yulin Chemical will replace hydrogenation catalysts in March 2026 and shut down the whole plant for one month in the first half of the year. With the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants in the second quarter, the supply - demand balance can be effectively improved [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term (January - February), ethylene glycol still faces significant inventory build - up pressure due to limited domestic plant maintenance, new plant production, weak downstream demand, and slow import contraction [6] - In the long term (second quarter), the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve and enter the de - stocking channel due to domestic plant shutdowns and coal - based plant spring maintenance [6] - Operational suggestions: Do not short in the short term. Long - position traders can buy call options or sell out - of - the - money put options (strike price not higher than 3800). Also, pay attention to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity [6]

【现货方面】 库存：截止7月21日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存预估约在53.3万吨附近，环比上期（7.14）-2.2万吨。 需求：同PTA需求。 【行情展望】 7月23日，乙二醇价格重心高位震荡，市场商谈尚可。日内乙二醇盘面宽幅调整，现货主流商谈在09合 约升水57-67元/吨水平，午后现货基差适度走强，场内交投氛围良好，主流供应商参与补货。美金方 面，乙二醇外盘重心宽幅整理，近期船货商谈围绕524-528美元/吨展开，整体成交略僵持，日内近期船 货526美元/吨偏上成交。 【供需方面】 供应：截至7月17日，MEG综合开工率和煤制MEG开工率为66.2%（-1.37%）和70.21%（-2.92%）。 7月中旬国内多套煤制乙二醇装置意外停车，导致国内供应提升不及预期，同时沙特多套乙二醇装置于7 月初意外停车，至今重启不顺，7-8月进口预期下降，且预计短期港口库存低位运行，因此，短期乙二 醇供需预期改善，7月预期紧平衡，乙二醇下方存有支撑。策略上，短期虚值看跌期权EG2509-P-4300 卖方持有。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整 ...