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乙二醇:短期MEG供增需弱 且油价回落 预计MEG回调
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-24 02:24
Supply and Demand - As of June 19, the overall operating rate of MEG is 70.33%, an increase of 4.08%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 70.16%, up by 1.73% [2] - As of June 23, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is approximately 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - Geopolitical factors have temporarily halted Iranian ethylene glycol facilities, which has supported a strong performance in ethylene glycol; however, Iranian inventory is still being shipped normally, and the actual arrival volume in July is expected to have little impact [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene glycol facilities are operating at full capacity, and two 700,000-ton facilities in Saudi Arabia are expected to restart soon, with local facility load increasing and planned shipping volume rising compared to the previous period [3] - In the short term, with the recovery of domestic facilities and weak demand expectations, supply and demand are unlikely to provide upward momentum for ethylene glycol, and with geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices significantly dropping, a price correction for ethylene glycol is anticipated; the short-term focus for EG09 is on the resistance level of 4,500 [3] Spot Market - On June 23, ethylene glycol prices opened high and then retreated, with market discussions remaining acceptable; overnight crude oil prices rose, leading to an early high opening for ethylene glycol, with spot transactions reaching around 4,640-4,650 yuan/ton [1] - Following news of Iranian facility restart intentions, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline; in the afternoon, the market saw narrow fluctuations with weak trading [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices also retreated from recent highs, with early discussions around 538-540 USD/ton, later falling to 531-533 USD/ton, and afternoon discussions around 533-535 USD/ton, with some trades executed at 531 USD/ton [1]