Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report" and was released on April 1, 2026 [2] Group 2: Oil Price Data WTI, BRENT, and Related Spreads - WTI prices ranged from $90.32 on March 25, 2026, to $102.88 on March 30, 2026, and ended at $101.38 on March 31, 2026, with a change of -$1.50 [3] - BRENT prices ranged from $102.22 on March 25, 2026, to $112.78 on March 30, 2026, and ended at $103.97 on March 31, 2026, with a change of -$8.81 [3] - The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased from $4.96 on March 25, 2026, to $7.80 on March 31, 2026, with a change of $2.41 [3] Other Oil - Related Indices - SC prices had a change of -22.90, OMAN prices had a change of 19.76, and the SC - BRT spread had a change of 5.54 from March 25 - 31, 2026 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR changed by $1.00, and its spread with BRT changed by -$39.94 from March 25 - 31, 2026 [3] Group 3: Daily News Statements on the Iran - US War - Trump said the US would end the war with Iran in two to three weeks, hinting that the US had achieved its military goals and might leave the issue of the Strait of Hormuz to other countries. He also said the US might reach an agreement with Iran before the end of the war [3] - Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran had the "necessary will" to end the war if the other side met Iran's demands, especially providing a guarantee of no more aggression [4] Impact on Oil Prices - Statements from the US and Iran about ending the war led to a decline in oil prices, partially eliminating the long - standing price risk premium in the market. However, traders were still worried that the solution might not eliminate the existing chaos in the global energy system [4] Negotiation Status - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said there was no negotiation but only information exchange, and Iran had not responded to the US's 15 proposals and had not set any negotiation principles yet. Iran's condition for ending the war was to "completely end the war in the entire region" [4] Group 4: Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [4] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.011 million barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day in the week of March 20 [4] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, a 1.54% increase in the week of March 20 [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [4] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained at 415.4 million barrels in the week of March 20 [4] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.464 million barrels per day in the week of March 20, a decrease of 0.73 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [4] Group 5: Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at a high level. On Friday, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, the absolute price strengthened again. The Brent month - spread reached a new high, and the Oman crude oil discount weakened significantly. Crude oil spot prices around the world converged [4] - The US did not rule out a ground offensive, and it was unclear to what extent Trump approved the Pentagon's action plan. The passage of VLCCs through the Strait of Hormuz remained interrupted, and Saudi Arabia fully switched to exporting from Yanbu Port, with a maximum export volume of 5 million barrels per day. Currently, there has been no supply interruption in Saudi Arabia, and the subsequent export situation of Yanbu Port should be monitored [4] - In the refined oil market, the European diesel crack spread reached a new high, European ARA refined oil inventories decreased significantly, and US refined oil inventories increased. Before the passage through the strait is restored, the fundamental supply interruption will continue. With the recent escalation of the situation, the absolute price may rise, but the risk of price fluctuations caused by Trump's actions should be watched out for [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Ganfeng Lithium's Mount Marion lithium spodumene project primarily relies on the power grid for electricity, resulting in low dependence on diesel for power generation [1] - However, the company still requires diesel for transportation and mining operations, indicating that fluctuations in oil prices could impact logistics and transportation costs across the industry in the long term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the asphalt price turned from weak to strong. At the beginning of March, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in oil prices, the asphalt market was just slowly recovering from the Spring Festival holiday, with weak downstream demand. The increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, and the asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Shandong reduced production and supply, leading to inventory reduction and a strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up [5][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In early March, the asphalt market was in the off - season, and the increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, with the asphalt crack spread dropping to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in different regions reduced production, supply contracted, and inventory decreased, supporting the strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. 3.2 Supply Overview - From January to April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be about 7.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25 million tons (-15%). In April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 980,000 tons (-44%). The planned asphalt production of local refineries in April is about 740,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons (-19%) and a year - on - year decrease of 310,000 tons (-30%) [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) [16][18]. 3.3 Demand Overview - In March 2026, domestic asphalt demand was weak, with obvious north - south differentiation. The overall demand did not reach the seasonal expectation, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. As of March 20, the operating rate of road modified asphalt was 10%, about 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 36%, about 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The refinery's shipment volume was at a low level, with a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons (-9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons (-35%) on March 20 [28]. 3.4 Inventory and Valuation - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt inventory showed a structural differentiation of a first - decreasing and then - increasing refinery inventory and a continuously high social inventory. The overall supply - demand pattern was tight. The asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level, and the basis fluctuated sharply but showed an overall upward trend [32][33][34]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up. - Strategy recommendations: 1. For single - side trading, hold long positions in BU2606 and pay attention to geopolitical risks. 2. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. 3. For options, take a wait - and - see approach [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels. On Friday, the situation between the US and Iran was tense, and the absolute price strengthened again. The Brent monthly spread reached a new high, the Oman crude oil discount weakened significantly, and the spot prices of crude oil around the world converged. The US does not rule out planning a ground offensive, and it is unclear to what extent Trump has approved the Pentagon's action plan. The passage of VLCCs in the Strait of Hormuz remains interrupted, and Saudi Arabia has fully shifted its exports to Yanbu Port, with a maximum export volume of 5 million barrels per day. Currently, there is no supply interruption in Saudi Arabia, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export situation at Yanbu Port. In the refined oil market, the cracking spread of European diesel reached a new high, the refined oil inventory in ARA in Europe decreased significantly, and the refined oil inventory in the US increased. Before the passage of the strait is restored, the fundamental interruption volume continues. Recently, the situation has escalated, and the absolute price has increased, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuation risk caused by Trump's TACO [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - European officials revealed that Iran is pressuring the Houthi armed forces to prepare for a new round of shipping attacks in the Red Sea if the US takes any further escalation actions in the war against Iran. There are differences within the Houthi leadership regarding the level of radical strategy to adopt. The Houthi armed forces said they will continue military operations until the US and Israel stop attacking Iran and its proxy organizations, without specifically mentioning targeting oil tankers or other vessels in the Red Sea. US and Saudi officials believe the Houthi armed forces currently hope to avoid further escalation of the situation and attacks on US and Saudi assets, but the longer the US and Israel's war against Iran lasts, the greater the possibility of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea [3]. - The White House said that negotiations with Iran are still ongoing and progressing smoothly, but there is a difference between Iran's public statements and what it privately tells US officials [3]. - US President Trump confirmed that the US is in dialogue with Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf regarding ending the war. Kalibaf denies having any negotiations with the US, but experts believe he is a hard - liner and has the conditions to reach an agreement [3][4]. - Data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports from Red Sea ports have increased to nearly 5 million barrels per day, and such diversion of transportation has offset about 45% of the export losses in the Persian Gulf this month [3][4]. 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week of March 20, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.011 million barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, an increase of 1.54% [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - In the week of March 20, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels [4]. - In the week of March 20, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.464 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.73 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [4].

Group 1 - The Thai government is actively addressing the crisis caused by rising oil prices due to the Middle East situation, focusing on diplomatic coordination, energy security, price control, and public welfare [1] - Thailand's Foreign Minister has proposed a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting to discuss solutions for easing tensions, while the country maintains stable oil reserves and seeks additional energy sources through diplomatic channels [1] - A recent incident involving a Thai cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz highlights the ongoing risks in the region, with one ship attacked and three crew members missing [1] Group 2 - The article mentions a significant drop in cryptocurrency values, with nearly 120,000 traders facing liquidation, indicating volatility in the digital asset market [2] - Gold prices have surged past $4,550, reflecting a potential safe-haven investment trend amid geopolitical tensions [2] - The situation surrounding Iran's nuclear facilities has escalated, with threats of severe retaliation and expectations of military conflict concluding within weeks [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in oil prices in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decrease in total revenue and net profit [2][11]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 are projected to be 0.41, 0.37, and 0.36 yuan respectively, with a target price of 6.83 yuan based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0 [11][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 2,783.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 31.81 billion yuan in 2025, down 36.8% year-on-year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.26 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.8% [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 22.35 for 2025 [4]. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 670.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.35% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.83% [13]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 is reported at 1.83 billion yuan, showing a significant decline of 69.91% year-on-year and 78.53% quarter-on-quarter [13]. Business Segments Exploration and Production - The exploration and production segment reported a revenue of 70.80 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.39% [20]. - The Brent crude oil price averaged 63.08 USD per barrel in Q4 2025, impacting the segment's performance [20]. Refining - The refining segment generated a revenue of 322.40 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.23% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.36% [23]. - The crude oil processing volume was 6,392 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.75% [26]. Chemicals - The chemicals segment reported a revenue of 100.43 billion yuan in Q4 2025, down 23.42% year-on-year and a loss of 12.79 billion yuan [28]. - The EBIT contribution per ton of ethylene was reported at -3,465.73 yuan, indicating significant losses [28].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the region has severely impacted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant disruptions in oil and gas supply chains, with a notable increase in shipping risks and costs [1][7][21]. Group 1: Current Situation in the Strait of Hormuz - Approximately 2,000 vessels and 20,000 crew members have been trapped in the Strait of Hormuz for over 26 days, marking an unprecedented situation in maritime history [2]. - The Strait of Hormuz, known as the "world's oil valve," sees about 20 million barrels of oil pass through daily, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption [7]. - The conflict has led to a drastic reduction in vessel traffic, with only 5 to 4 ships passing through on March 23 and 24, compared to the pre-war daily average of 100 to 140 vessels [8]. Group 2: Shipping Risks and Navigation Challenges - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has issued warnings to vessels attempting to navigate the Strait, increasing the perceived risks for shipping companies [12][18]. - Many crew members express reluctance to navigate the Strait unless the conflict is fully resolved, highlighting the psychological impact of the ongoing violence [9][34]. - The potential for attacks on vessels remains high, particularly for those carrying oil and liquefied natural gas from countries other than Iran [18]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Supply Chain Disruptions - The conflict has led to a near halt in port operations in the region, complicating food imports and increasing prices significantly; for instance, the price of bottled water has surged from $2.5 to $30 per box [21][23]. - Shipping costs have escalated, with current rates being over four times higher than pre-war levels due to the disruption of logistics and supply chains [21]. - The situation has forced shipping companies to consider alternative routes, which are often more expensive and logistically challenging, such as using land transport after reaching ports outside the Strait [24][26]. Group 4: Responses from Stakeholders - The U.S. has announced measures to ensure maritime security, including insurance guarantees and potential naval escorts, but these have not alleviated crew members' fears about navigating the Strait [31][32]. - Iranian officials have stated that non-hostile vessels can pass through the Strait with proper coordination, but this has not significantly reassured shipping companies [8][34]. - The uncertainty surrounding the conflict and its resolution continues to affect investor sentiment, with fluctuations in oil prices reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions [37][39].

Market Overview - The market experienced a setback with all three major indices opening lower and subsequently declining, resulting in only 877 stocks rising against 4235 that fell, indicating a cooling market sentiment [1] - Trading volume shrank to 1.94 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 250 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting a cautious attitude among investors after two days of rebound [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3900-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices dropped over 1.3%, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading the decline at 1.83% [1] Sector Performance - Previous leading sectors such as power, military, and non-ferrous metals showed significant divergence, while resource sectors like oil, gas, and coal continued to weaken due to oil price fluctuations [1] - The overall market is entering a phase of consolidation after a technical sell-off following a rebound [1] Future Outlook - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, contributing to a rebound in international oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing 100 USD, which has increased risk aversion in the Asia-Pacific market and affected A-shares [1] - Despite recent adjustments, the downward space for A-shares is relatively limited, and the foundation for a medium to long-term upward trend remains solid, with short-term adjustments potentially providing a window for mid-term positioning [1] Hot Sectors - As the annual report season approaches, sectors with high earnings visibility and defensive characteristics are gaining attention [2] - The power sector is expected to benefit from stable policy expectations regarding reasonable returns on the generation side, showing resilience during market adjustments [2] - The AI hardware sector continues to establish trends, with a sustained increase in token usage for major AI models, although short-term valuation digestion pressure should be monitored [2] - The trend towards domestic semiconductor production remains strong, with a focus on sub-sectors such as semiconductor equipment and wafer manufacturing [2] - Price-increasing commodities like non-ferrous metals and chemicals are benefiting from high product prices, with strong earnings visibility in annual reports, though caution is advised regarding cost transmission impacts from oil price fluctuations [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in oil prices in Q4 2025, with a significant year-on-year decrease in both revenue and net profit [2][11]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 are projected to be 0.41, 0.37, and 0.36 yuan respectively, with a target price set at 6.83 yuan based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0 [11][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 2,783.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 31.81 billion yuan in 2025, down 36.8% from the previous year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.26 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.8% [4]. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of 670.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.35% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.83% [13]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 is reported at 1.83 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 69.91% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 78.53% [13]. Business Segments - Exploration and Production: Revenue for Q4 2025 was 70.80 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.15% and a significant drop in operating profit [20][22]. - Refining: The refining segment reported revenue of 322.40 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 9.23% [23][26]. - Chemicals: The chemical segment faced substantial losses, with an operating loss of 12.79 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase in losses [28]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22.35, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio stands at 0.9 [4][7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 711 billion yuan, with a total share count of 12.1 billion shares [6].