午夜时分，全国加油站的电子显示屏即将迎来一次集体性的跳动，这一次，下跌的数字成为了主角。 让我们把时钟拨回到2025年初，那时的油价还是一场 让人心惊肉跳的过山车。 油价的起伏，背后是国际原油市场多方力量的博弈。华尔街的交易员们沉浸在对美联储降息的憧憬中，他们坚信油价将会重拾升势；而另一方面，石油输出 国组织（OPEC）却悄悄地拧大了输油阀门，计划提前一年完成减产目标，准备每日增产54.7万桶。面对这复杂的局面，就连加油站老板老王也忍不住感 叹："搞石油比炒股还刺激，明天是涨是跌，谁也说不准！" 有机构大胆预测，本轮油价的降幅可能会扩大到每吨300元。如果预测成真，那么92号汽油的价格有望重回6元时代，这将是2025年以来最大的一次单次跌 幅！ 然而，老司机们也切莫高兴得太早。 国际油价的走势瞬息万变，美联储是否降息仍然是个未知数。眼下的这波降价行情，就像是沙漠中难得一见的清泉， 如果错过了，可能又要经历漫长的等待。 2025年初，国际原油市场风云突变，油价波动如惊涛骇浪。年初至今，短短数月，国内成品油调价窗口已开启16次。这其中，4次因涨跌幅度过小而未能调 整，6次油价应声下跌，另有6次则逆势上涨，每一次波 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: Increase in US Crude Oil Inventory and Decline in International Oil Prices [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Chief Analyst: Chen Shuxian [1] - Analyst: Zhou Shaowen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $66.2/$63.3 per barrel, down $1.0/$1.4 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week-on-week increase of 3.26/3.04/0.23/0.05 million barrels respectively. The US crude oil production was 13.33 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week-on-week. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 163, an increase of 4 from the previous week. The US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.18 million barrels per day, up 60,000 barrels per day week-on-week, and the US refinery crude oil operating rate was 96.4%, down 0.5 pct week-on-week [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $87/$95/$90 per barrel, down $0.3/$0.9/$4.1 per barrel week-on-week. The spreads with crude oil were $21/$29/$24 per barrel, up $1.1/$0.4/ -$2.7 per barrel week-on-week. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week-on-week change of -0.79/+0.71/ -0.62 million barrels respectively. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.81/5.14/1.97 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of +10,000/+30,000/ -20,000 barrels per day respectively. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.00/3.70/1.83 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of -40,000/ -20,000/+120,000 barrels per day respectively. The net exports of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene were 0.58/1.33/0.23 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of -0.25/ -0.13/+0.09 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Upstream Key Company Price Changes: Among the upstream key companies, the Hong Kong - listed shares of some companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and PetroChina Company Limited showed an upward trend in the near - week, near - month, and near - three - month periods, while some A - shares showed a downward trend [9] - Key Company Valuations: The report provides the total market capitalization,归母净利润, PE, and PB of key companies from 2024A to 2027E [9] - Crude Oil Sector: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $66.2, $63.3, $61.9, and $62.8 per barrel respectively, all showing a week - on - week decline. The US dollar index was 97.8, down 1.0 week - on - week. The LME copper spot price was $9,165.0 per ton, down $411.5 week - on - week [9] - Inventory Sector: The US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory all increased week - on - week [9] - Production Sector: The US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets all increased week - on - week [9] - Refinery Sector: The US refinery crude oil processing volume increased week - on - week, while the operating rate decreased. The operating rates of Chinese local refineries and major refineries showed different trends [9] - Import and Export Sector: The US crude oil net imports increased week - on - week [9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance: No specific performance data provided, only the topic is mentioned [14] - Sector Listed Company Performance: The report lists the latest prices, total market capitalizations, and price changes in different time periods of multiple listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector, as well as their valuations [26][28] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - Crude Oil Price: It involves the price and spread relationships between different types of crude oils such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [32][41][42] - Crude Oil Inventory: It shows the historical data and trends of the US commercial crude oil inventory, total crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory, as well as their correlations with oil prices [49][54][63] - Crude Oil Supply: The US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets are tracked [68] - Crude Oil Demand: The US refinery crude oil processing volume, operating rate, and the operating rates of Chinese local and major refineries are presented [76][79][83] - Crude Oil Import and Export: The US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes are tracked [87][91] 4. Refined Oil Product Sector Data Tracking - Refined Oil Product Price: When the international crude oil price is above $80 per barrel, the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices slows down. The report also shows the price and spread relationships between crude oil and refined oil products in different regions such as China, the US, Europe, and Singapore [97][124][130] - Refined Oil Product Inventory: The inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore are tracked, along with their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [138][144][149] - Refined Oil Product Supply: The productions of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are presented [157][158] - Refined Oil Product Demand: The consumptions of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are tracked, along with the number of US airport passenger security checks [161][162] - Refined Oil Product Import and Export: The import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are tracked [175][179][180] 5. Oilfield Service Sector Data Tracking - The report provides the weekly average, monthly average, quarterly average, and year - to - date average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand improvement of asphalt is weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak, and the price may follow the decline of oil prices. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents and changes in US sanctions policies may bring additional volatility risks to the crude oil and asphalt markets [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 14, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,472 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.54% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 224,823 lots, a decrease of 176 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 153,819 lots, an increase of 30,630 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,520 - 3,870 yuan/ton; South China 3,520 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China 3,600 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in the North China market increased yesterday, while other regions remained stable. Due to the weak oil price trend and poor asphalt demand, the spot market sentiment is cautious [2] - The supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak. Affected by typhoon weather, the demand improvement is still weak. Considering the low inventory, there is no prominent contradiction in the market currently. However, if the oil price continues to fall, the asphalt market price will also decline further [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Research indicates that both oil prices and supply issues are exerting a dual short-term pressure on the profitability of PetroChina and CNOOC, with expected declines in net profit for the second quarter of 22% to 23% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - HSBC expects PetroChina's net profit to decline by 22% to 23% year-on-year for the second quarter due to weak oil prices and demand [1] - CNOOC is also projected to experience a similar decline in net profit, reflecting the broader industry challenges [1] - Despite the expected profit drop, PetroChina may be less affected due to improvements in its natural gas business, which includes expanded domestic sales and reduced mixed gas import costs [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for both PetroChina and CNOOC, indicating a positive outlook despite the anticipated profit declines [1] - Sinopec is rated as "Hold" due to pressure on its cash flow, suggesting a more cautious stance on its investment potential [1] - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of cash flow for maintaining dividend distributions in the current market environment [1]

Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil continued to decline. The September contract of WTI closed down $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.7%. The October contract of Brent closed down $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a decrease of 1.63%. The SC2509 closed at 502.5 yuan per barrel, down 6.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels [1]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March [1]. - Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day. India started to purchase oil from the US and Canada. It is reported that Indian Oil Corporation bought crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East through tender, scheduled to arrive in September [1]. - The market's concern about oversupply is significant, and the price center of oil continues to decline. The view is "volatile and weak" [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan per ton [1]. - In August, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil remains sufficient, and demand may show signs of weakening. The fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. The view is "volatile and weak" [1][3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.58% at 3,544 yuan per ton [3]. - In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, and asphalt supply is expected to decrease. Refinery inventories are generally controllable, and North China's main refineries may continue low - production in the short term to deliver previous contracts, with limited supply growth. In the southern market, rainfall has decreased, demand is expected to improve, and terminal construction after the rainy season has positive support. The demand for modified asphalt in Shandong's highway projects has been released intensively, driving an increase in terminal capacity utilization [3]. - In the short term, the asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and spot prices are relatively firm. The risk lies in the fluctuation of crude oil prices at the cost end. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes. The view is "volatile" [3]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,682 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.34%; the spot offer was at a discount of 13 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,399 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.23%, with the basis increasing by 3 yuan per ton to 83 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,463 yuan per ton. The main PX futures contract 509 closed at 6,734 yuan per ton, down 0.3%. The spot negotiation price was $839 per ton, equivalent to 6,901 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 58 yuan per ton to 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally light, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is preparing to restart, and its 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to shut down for maintenance soon. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia shut down due to an accident recently, with an initial estimated shutdown time of about one week [3]. - OPEC+ continues to over - produce, the cost - end oil price is further pressured, downstream demand has resilience support, and the terminal operating load is at a low level in the off - season. TA prices are under pressure. The view is "volatile and weak" [3][5]. Rubber - On Tuesday, as of the day - session close, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 180 yuan per ton to 14,545 yuan per ton, the main NR contract rose 140 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton, and the main butadiene rubber BR contract rose 120 yuan per ton to 11,515 yuan per ton [5]. - The weather in rubber - producing areas is currently good, and raw material prices have loosened. Downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and exports will decline, while domestic demand has stable growth. Fundamentally, rubber supply increases while demand is stable. With the peak season gradually materializing, there is pressure on the upside of rubber prices. The view is "volatile" [5]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,373 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,085 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $269 - 273 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $331 - 336 per ton. In the downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,045 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,280 - 2,350 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5,050 yuan per ton [5]. - Overall, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in August, but the expected increase in imports in August is not large, and demand changes little. Although inventory increases month - on - month, it will not increase significantly year - on - year, and the total inventory level is relatively low year - on - year. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a volatile trend [5]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,970 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP production was - 306.75 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 476.87 yuan per ton, the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 751.33 yuan per ton, the profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP production was - 229.24 yuan per ton, and the profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was 70.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,956 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,514 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,403 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the profit of oil - based polyethylene production was - 362 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based polyethylene production was 970 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, both supply and demand will start to recover, inventory will gradually transfer from society to downstream, and there are not many fundamental contradictions. Without a significant increase in the cost end, the overall upside space is limited. The view is "volatile" [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market fluctuated slightly. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was 4,840 - 4,910 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was about 5,000 - 5,300 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, prices rose and fell. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,760 - 4,950 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 5,060 - 5,210 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, prices increased. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,900 - 4,970 yuan per ton, and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based material was 5,020 - 5,100 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, the fundamental pressure on PVC has eased, and inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental trading after the supply - side reform trading. The main contract will switch to V2501, which is in the off - season of consumption. It is expected that prices will be volatile and weak, and the basis and monthly spread will gradually strengthen [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on August 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, basis changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc [7]. Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Analysts previously expected a decrease of about 600,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 400,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of about 800,000 barrels in distillate inventories [11]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March. Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day [11]. - Fed's Daly said that the time for interest - rate cuts is approaching, and two interest - rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment. It is also possible that there will not be two interest - rate cuts this year, but it is more likely that more cuts will be needed [11]. - US President Trump said that he will meet with Russia tomorrow. He will "wait and see" regarding tariffs on Russia and "quite possibly" impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil [11]. Chart Analysis Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [27][29][33]. Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 09 - 01), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), etc [41][43][46]. Inter - Commodity Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [59][62][65]. Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc [69][70][72]. Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [74][75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $71.6/$68.5 per barrel, up $2.8/$2.7 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively. US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs was 410 this week, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of active US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week. US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery crude oil utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $92/$101/$90 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/ - $2.0/ - $4.1 per barrel respectively. The price spreads with crude oil were $20/$30/$19 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$0.6/ - $4.3/ - $6.3 per barrel respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week - on - week change of - 2.72/ + 3.64/ - 2.11 million barrels respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production was 10.04/5.21/1.87 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +680,000/+130,000/ - 10,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption was 9.15/3.61/2.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +190,000/+260,000/+410,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 120,000/890,000/770,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 40,000/+170,000/+200,000 barrels per day respectively; US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 230,000/1.31 million/1.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +110,000/ - 120,000/ - 230,000 barrels per day respectively; US jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 60,000/150,000/80,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 90,000/ - 110,000/ - 30,000 barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Price Movements**: This section presents the price, price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple upstream companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, along with their market capitalization and valuation data [8]. - **Crude Oil Price**: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $71.6, $68.5, $67.2, and $67.8 per barrel respectively, with week - on - week increases of $2.8, $2.7, $2.3, and $2.9 per barrel respectively. The LME copper spot price was $9,165 per ton, down $653.5 week - on - week, and the US dollar index was 100, up 2.6 week - on - week [8]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively [2][8]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of US crude oil rigs was 410, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week [2][8]. - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. The utilization rate of Chinese local refineries was 51.0%, up 0.95 pct, and that of Chinese major refineries was 84.0%, up 0.05 pct [8]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2][8]. - **Product Oil Data**: It includes the price, price spread, inventory, production, consumption, and import/export data of product oils in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [9]. - **Oilfield Services Data**: The weekly average daily rates of offshore jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms are provided [9]. 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: No specific performance data is provided in the given content, only the section title is mentioned [11]. - **Performance of Sector Listed Companies**: The price, market capitalization, and price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple listed companies in the sector are presented, along with their valuation data [22][23]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price [28][30][40]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Discusses the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly drawdown rate of US commercial crude oil inventory and the change rate of Brent oil prices, and presents the data of US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [43][44][53]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, as well as their relationship with oil prices [57][59][61]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Presents US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and the utilization rates of Chinese local and major refineries [65][69][72]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes US crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and the import/export and net import data of crude oil and petroleum products [76][81]. 3.4 Product Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Product Oil Price**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel retail prices, and presents the prices and price spreads of product oils in different regions such as the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [87][114][120]. - **Product Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventory data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore [127][131][137]. - **Product Oil Supply**: Presents the production data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [143][145][146]. - **Product Oil Demand**: Presents the consumption data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, as well as the number of US airport passenger screenings [149][150][156]. - **Product Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes the import/export and net export data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [161][166][167]. 3.5 Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Presents the average daily rates of jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the oilfield services industry [175][180].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing limited fluctuations as the market digests the potential impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on global economic growth and oil demand [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil increased by 4 cents to $71.74 per barrel, a rise of only 0.06%, while WTI crude oil rose by 1 cent to $69.27, showing minimal change [1] - Despite minor daily changes, oil prices recorded significant weekly gains, with Brent crude up 4.9% and WTI up 6.4% [1] - The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over supply disruptions due to U.S. threats of secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly in Asia [1][3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs, if fully implemented, could increase import prices, thereby suppressing consumer spending and industrial activity, which would exert pressure on oil demand [3] - Initial data indicates that U.S. inflation has already begun to rise due to tariffs affecting the prices of imported goods such as furniture and entertainment [3] - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve, could limit borrowing and investment, further slowing economic growth and impacting the oil market negatively [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment remains cautious, with technical indicators showing a weakening bullish momentum, as indicated by a shortening of the MACD red bars [4] - WTI crude oil is currently in an upward channel but is experiencing reduced momentum, with short-term support at $68.50 and potential resistance at $70.50 [3][4] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound state in the short term, awaiting fundamental drivers to determine the direction [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Global trade uncertainties may provide short-term price support, especially concerning energy geopolitical factors [6] - Overuse of policy measures could exacerbate global market uncertainties and potentially suppress demand growth [6] - The oil market is facing a complex interplay of multiple macro risks and policies, leading to anticipated increased volatility in the future [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products facing various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new capacity release, downstream demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases, inventory accumulates, and although downstream demand warms up, the supply - demand situation lacks substantial improvement. For polypropylene, upstream inventory transfers to the middle, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - After a sharp rise in night - time oil prices, the pure benzene price recovers. Its weekly supply and demand both decline, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3] - Styrene futures' main contract fluctuates narrowly. The cost support strengthens as oil prices rise, but the supply - demand situation remains weak with high supply and accumulated port inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon due to oil price support. PX fundamentals have limited drive, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with weakening processing margins and basis. Mid - term processing margins have a repair drive but depend on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and port inventory fluctuates at a low level. It faces supply changes due to device maintenance and restarts. Short - term oil price strength provides positive support [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw material fluctuations. Short fiber's processing margins decline, and its demand is in the off - season, but there is mid - term positive expectation. Bottle chip has stable inventory under low - start conditions, and over - capacity restricts its processing margin repair [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation is not high, and the port accumulates inventory seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand changes little. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [6] - Urea futures' main contract opens high and closes low. Local agricultural demand is ending, downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises accumulate inventory. The market is likely to operate within a range in the short term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve. Long - term prices are unlikely to rise significantly [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit improves, and device operation increases. Alumina demand provides support, but non - aluminum demand is average. Long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. Spot sales weaken, industry profit recovers slightly, and processing orders are weak. In the long - term, without supply reduction, glass prices are unlikely to rise significantly [8]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to market expectations of increased Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of U.S. sanctions [1] - As of the close on July 25, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.87 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery decreased by $0.74 to $68.44 per barrel, a decline of 1.07% [1] Group 2 - U.S. policy changes may allow Venezuelan oil exports to increase by over 200,000 barrels per day, which is expected to be welcomed by U.S. refining companies [1] - Chevron and other partners of the Venezuelan National Oil Company are permitted to resume limited oil extraction in Venezuela, facilitating payments to contractors and importing essential goods [1] - The delay in oil deliveries from Russian Black Sea terminals and Turkish Mediterranean ports may push Brent crude oil prices back towards the $70 per barrel level [2] Group 3 - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased by 7 to 415, representing a year-on-year decline of 67 rigs [2] - In Canada, the number of active oil rigs increased by 8 to 128, although this reflects a year-on-year decrease of 16 rigs [2]

Group 1 - The new round of fuel price adjustment will take effect from July 15, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively [1] - The average price reduction for 92 octane gasoline is 0.10 yuan per liter, while 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will see reductions of 0.11 yuan per liter [4] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 octane gasoline will save consumers 5 yuan [5] Group 2 - International oil prices have been fluctuating, with Brent crude futures trading between 67 and 71 dollars per barrel during the adjustment period [5] - Factors influencing oil price fluctuations include concerns over oversupply, geopolitical risks, and changes in international trade [5] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, which is three times the growth rate of demand [5][7] Group 3 - The demand for oil remains high due to the summer travel peak in the Northern Hemisphere, while major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [7] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff negotiations, sanctions against Russia, and the status of ceasefire agreements in the Middle East contribute to the expected volatility in international oil prices [7]