高低价区对比如果仔细看，全国油价可以分高价区和低价区。海南那边，9.88元一升，是全国最高；西北的甘肃、青海、新疆价格最低，8.16到8.26元一 升。大家经常吐槽，为什么差别这么大？原因很简单，运输成本、地方税费和成品油储备能力不一样，南方一些岛屿地区成本高，油价自然高。 "哎，你听说没？油价又下来了，这回98号汽油每升都有点便宜了。"我在加油站排队的时候旁边的朋友就跟我聊开了。大家都关心这个，毕竟平时开车、跑 长途，油钱能省点总是心里爽。咱们今天就来聊聊最新的油价情况，看看到底跌了多少，哪儿最划算。 最新油价概览说起来这次全国各地油价还是挺有差别的，特别是98号汽油。北方这边，北京现在是9.07元一升，天津9.01元，河北8.33元，山西9.31元，内蒙 古8.26元。东北三省也不一样，辽宁8.40元，吉林8.32元，黑龙江8.60元。 再往东看，上海9.43元，江苏9.58元，浙江9.54元，安徽9.08元，福建9.06元。中部地区，河南8.55元，湖北9.56元，湖南8.51元，江西9.10元。南方那边广东 9.73元，广西9.00元，海南最高，9.88元一升。西南地区云南8.47元，贵州8.65元， ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：OPEC+11月增产幅度较温和 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-10-09 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：OPEC+11月开始每天增产13.7万桶原油，增产幅度相对温和。本周石化继续调整。持续关注反 内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌0.38%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅0.88%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌，美原油库存增加，汽油库存增加 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格跌、价差涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数跌，织机开工率涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存稳 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现较差，较上周 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 银河能化-20250929 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-09-29） 【相关资讯】 伊拉克石油部表示，在达成一项临时协议打破僵局后，伊拉克北部库尔德地区通往土耳其 的输油管道周六恢复原油输送，为两年半以来首次。 三位熟悉谈判情况的消息人士称，OPEC+可能会在 10 月 5 日的会议上批准再次增加石油产 量，每天至少增加 13.7 万桶，因为油价上涨促使该组织试图进一步夺回市场份额。消息人 士称，最终决定尚未做出。 知情人士称，美国贸易谈判代表已告知印度官员，减少购买俄罗斯石油是降低印度关税并 达成贸易协议的关键。 俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫周六告诉西方国家，任何针对俄罗斯的侵略都将遭到"果断的回 应"，他警告不要试图在俄罗斯领空击落飞机，并指责德国发表军国主义言论。 美国总统特朗普周四公布了一系列新进口关税，包括从 10 月 1 日起对专利药品征收 100% 的关税，对重型卡车征收 25%的关税。白宫一位官员表示，对于与美国签订贸易协议明确 此类关税减免的国家，政府对其进口专利药品将维持 15%的关税上限。消息人士称，来自 英国的品牌药品将被征收 100%的关税。 【市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,130 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of devices such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongying Petrochemical, last week's PE production and capacity utilization increased month - on - month. Downstream demand seasonally recovered, driving the downstream start - up rate of PE to rise month - on - month. Last week, the production enterprise inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory pressure was not large. This week, only a new 350,000 - ton high - density device of Baolai was added, and devices such as Yulong, Guoneng Xinjiang, and Jinhai Chemical restarted. PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month - on - month. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton low - density device is expected to be put into production within the month, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium and long term. The greenhouse film has entered the peak season, and agricultural film orders have continued to pick up; packaging film orders still have room for growth. With the upcoming long holiday, downstream stocking demand is released. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, and the medium - and long - term supply - exceeding - demand expectation of global crude oil puts some pressure on oil prices, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term geopolitical situation. The supply - demand game of LLDPE is expected to operate in the daily range of around 7,100 - 7,200 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,130, down 39; 1 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,130, down 39; 5 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,187, down 36; 9 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,229, down 21. The trading volume (daily, lots) was 210,963, an increase of 9,252; the open interest (daily, lots) was 580,839, an increase of 24,526. The 9 - 1 spread was 81, down 11. The long position volume of the top 20 futures holders of polyethylene (daily, lots) was 422,702, an increase of 18,531; the short position volume was 478,391, an increase of 16,583; the net long position volume was - 55,689, an increase of 1,948 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,193.48, down 19.57; the average price in East China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,318.81, down 8.1. The basis was 63.48, an increase of 19.44 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in the Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) was 64.51, down 0.29; the CFR middle price of naphtha in the Japanese region (daily, US dollars/ton) was 596.75, down 2.63. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 841, unchanged; the CFR middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 846, down 5 [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate (daily, %) was 80.36, an increase of 2.32 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film (weekly, %) was 51.78, an increase of 0.48; the operating rate of PE pipes (weekly, %) was 31.83, an increase of 0.16; the operating rate of PE agricultural film (weekly, %) was 26.75, an increase of 2.63 [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) was 4.93, down 1.1; the 40 - day historical volatility (daily, %) was 6.04, down 0.91. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene (daily, %) was 10.21, an increase of 0.16; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) was 10.2, an increase of 0.15 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's PE weekly production increased by 2.97% month - on - month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.23% month - on - month to 80.36%. From September 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 2.6% month - on - month. As of September 17th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 490,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%; as of September 15th, the social inventory of PE was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%. As of September 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week - on - week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton week - on - week to 893 yuan/ton [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to the current low level of the reference crude oil price change rate, despite international crude oil prices showing a strong fluctuation trend [1][2]. Group 1: International Crude Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, leading to a change in the domestic reference crude oil price change rate from negative to positive, but still at a low level [1]. - The average price level of international crude oil has slightly increased, influenced by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, despite expectations of oversupply due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and rising U.S. oil inventories [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustment - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is at 0.59%, which translates to an expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but this does not reach the retail price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1]. - The probability of a price adjustment being suspended is high, marking the sixth suspension of refined oil price adjustments since the beginning of 2025 [2].

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel this week, respectively, both up by $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, down by 10 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [1] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 418, while active fracturing fleets rose by 5 to 169 [1] U.S. Crude Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.42 million barrels per day, down by 390 thousand barrels per day week-on-week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.3%, down by 1.6 percentage points [1] - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 569, 528, and 42 thousand barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week change of -58, +253, and -311 thousand barrels per day [2] U.S. Refined Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel respectively [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, showing week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [4] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 941, 496, and 190 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [5] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 881, 362, and 162 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [5] U.S. Refined Products Trade - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 16, 97, and 81 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +7, -2, and -9 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 10, 85, and 76 thousand barrels per day, reflecting week-on-week changes of -12, -54, and -42 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 5, 24, and 18 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -7, +5, and +12 thousand barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [6] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Services, China Oil Engineering, and Petrochemical Machinery [6]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry continues to adjust, with ongoing attention to the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading [1] - The oil and petrochemical index fell by 1.99% this week, while the best-performing segment was oil product sales and storage, which only declined by 0.46% [1] - Crude oil prices decreased, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a reduction in gasoline inventories [1] Group 2 - Polyester filament prices and price spreads have decreased, with an increase in inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in weaving machine operating rates [1] - The sample prices of polyolefins remained stable, with inventory depletion observed [1] - If demand improves and there is progress in eliminating backward production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [2]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the geopolitical disturbance affecting Russian oil shipments, leading to a rise in crude oil prices. EIA reports show increases in both crude oil and refined product inventories. Continuous attention is required on domestic commodity prices and the progress of phasing out outdated facilities in the petrochemical industry [2][5] - The petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.41% compared to the previous week, while oilfield services showed the best performance within the sector, with a rise of 3.98% [3][5] - Crude oil prices increased, with U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories also rising [6][13] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament remained stable, with price spreads increasing. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, while the operating rate remained stable [18][25] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remained stable, with inventory levels decreasing [26][29] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures closing at $67.43 per barrel, up 3.3% from last week. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15,430 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1,220 thousand barrels [8][17] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) were stable at 6,860, 8,040, and 7,135 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 150 yuan per ton [20][25] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reported at 27.6, 31.1, and 19.3 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively [25] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) were reported at 7,850 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous week. The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins was 65.5 million tons, down by 1.5 million tons from last week [29]

Core Viewpoint - Trafigura Group's oil business is supported by recent investments in refining and distribution assets, despite declining profitability among competitors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Trafigura's oil trading volume is sufficient to meet three times France's demand, and it is also the largest metal trader globally [2]. - The company restructured its crude oil and petroleum products teams last year, with Dan Woodbridge leading crude operations and Tom Farrant overseeing global gasoline [2]. - The establishment of a new asset management department has had a significantly positive impact on the company's operations [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Major energy companies are experiencing reduced earnings due to volatile oil prices driven by geopolitical events, contrasting with a previous period of record profits [1]. - Refining margins have increased due to strong fuel demand, while attacks on Russian production facilities have limited oil product supply [1]. - Despite concerns over oversupply and slowing global economic growth, Brent crude prices have remained above $65 per barrel [4][5]. Group 3: Price Valuation - The fair value of oil is estimated to be around $55 per barrel based on supply and demand fundamentals, but current prices reflect various risk factors [5][6]. - Factors such as sanctions, tariffs, Middle East tensions, and the Ukraine crisis are influencing oil pricing, preventing it from reaching the estimated fair value [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has slightly recovered from the news of OPEC's production increase, and oil prices have stabilized. However, due to the unclear situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate repeatedly, providing limited guidance for the unilateral price direction of downstream fuel oil [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors intertwined. Supply is tightening due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and attacks on Russian refineries, and downstream bunker demand is fair. But Middle East fuel oil exports are increasing, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production has slightly rebounded but remains at a relatively low level. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower valuation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.13% at 2,764 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.68% at 3,385 yuan/ton [1] - Although OPEC has lifted the second - layer production limit, the increase in quotas does not necessarily mean an increase in actual production, and the short - term pressure on the market is limited [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is affected by sanctions and attacks on refineries, while Middle East exports are expected to increase, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production in August was 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. There are no obvious signs of increased production in September, and the production trend this year is expected to be more stable than last year. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is expected to decrease in September [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]