1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to the previous low and then rose sharply due to expected lower sugar production and higher consumption in 2026/27, although India's sugar production may exceed expectations. [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from increased supply during the peak crushing season, but the pressure is expected to ease due to the sharp rebound in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, with prices likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom after hitting the bottom and rebounding, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to have a bottom - oscillating price. [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options, and expect a bottom - oscillating trend for the unilateral position. [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,214 with a rise of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with a rise of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with a rise of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262). [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), in Bayuquan 5435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 120, 225, 205, and 540 respectively. [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (up 5), and the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (down 6), and the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (down 1). [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 3921 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 4977 yuan/ton, with a spread of 383 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 341 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the quota - free price was 3966 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5036 yuan/ton, with a spread of 324 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 282 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the 2026/27 sugar - crushing season, the EU's beet planting area is expected to decline by 5% - 7%, and the sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons in 2025/26 to about 15.5 million tons. [5] - **Important Information**: Brazil's ethanol production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by 7.9% year - on - year to a record high of 36.5 billion liters. The increase may exceed the domestic market's digestion capacity and promote an increase in exports. [6][7] - **Important Information**: As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, with a cumulative cane crushing of 87.029 million tons (an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season) and a sugar production of 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar production rate of 9.27%. [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence has declined, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production may exceed expectations, sugar prices have risen after falling to the previous low due to expected lower production and higher consumption. Domestically, the sugar price pressure is expected to ease, and prices are likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral position, expect a bottom - oscillating price for international sugar and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach. [9][10][11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between different regions and varieties, and basis and spreads of different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND. [13][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to reach a temporary bottom. The overnight surge in crude oil prices led to a rise in energy - chemical commodities this morning, and Zhengzhou sugar rebounded accordingly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Sugar Market**: On Thursday, New York raw sugar futures weakened. The main July contract closed down 0.97% to 16.26 cents per pound. The main August contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed down 1.4% to $466.30 per ton. The market is waiting for the production data of the second half of May in the central - southern region of Brazil to be announced by Unica. The intense military conflict between Israel and Iran caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which is beneficial to sugar prices [7] - **Domestic Sugar Market**: Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after reaching the bottom. The 09 contract closed at 5,664 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with an increase of 646 positions. The spot prices in domestic producing areas declined. The price of Kunming sugar was 5,815 yuan, and that of Nanning sugar was 6,015 yuan. During the night session, Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The main 09 contract approached the 5,600 mark but then stabilized and rebounded, indicating strong support at this level [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazilian Sugar Production and Export**: A survey of 20 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights shows that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May is expected to increase by 1.2% year - on - year to 45.91 million tons. Sugar production is expected to increase by 4.7% to 2.839 million tons. Ethanol production is expected to decrease by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.005 billion liters. The sugar content of sugarcane (ATR) is expected to decrease by 3.8% year - on - year to 125.17 kg/ton. The ratio of sugarcane to sugar production is expected to be 51.84%, compared with 48.2% in the same period last year. Brazil exported 783,197.58 tons of sugar in the first week of June, with an average daily export volume of 156,639.52 tons, a 2% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in June last year [9] - **Indian Sugar Production**: Indian growers and industry officials said that India will have a sugar production surplus for at least two consecutive years. Due to sufficient rainfall, millions of farmers have expanded the planting area of sugarcane, and the crop yield is expected to increase. The rebound in production will enable India to increase exports in the 2025/26 season [9] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 654,500 tons, an increase of 122,800 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangdong were 654,500 tons, an increase of 223,600 tons year - on - year; the industrial inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 100,800 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 100%, an increase of 18.97% year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Guangdong were 3,900 tons. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the final sugar production in Xinjiang was 814,200 tons, an increase of 255,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Xinjiang were 618,800 tons, an increase of 231,400 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 76%, an increase of 6.65% year - on - year; the industrial inventory was 195,400 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Xinjiang were 73,700 tons [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures and a table showing the trading volume and position changes of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, including details such as the trading volume, increase or decrease of trading volume, long - position volume, increase or decrease of long - position volume, short - position volume, and increase or decrease of short - position volume of each member [21]