早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 节前 | SR601 | 合约收盘价 | 5479 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.02%。夜盘收于 | 5493 | 元/吨；SR605 | 合 | | | | | 约收盘价 | 5437 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.09%。夜盘收于 | 5458 | 元/吨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | 1 | 昨日 | ICE | 原糖主力合约收盘价为 | 16.32 | 美分/磅，日跌幅 | 1.92%；伦白糖主力合约 | 收盘价 | 451.3 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 1.57%。 | | | | 2.节前广西白糖现货成交价为 | 5658 | 元/吨，上涨 | 5 | 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价 | 5740~5850 | 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 | 5680~5730 | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 | | | | ...

News Summary Group 1: Market Insights - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar reaffirmed the government's commitment to protect consumer and supplier interests while ensuring affordability and availability of essential goods, with a decision to approve the import of 500,000 tons of sugar [1] - S&P Global reported a projected decrease of 19.3% in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's Center-South region for the first half of June, amounting to 39.87 million tons, and a 19.9% decrease in sugar production to 2.52 million tons year-on-year [1] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data indicated that speculators increased their net short positions in raw sugar by 7,496 contracts to 109,203 contracts as of the week ending June 24 [1] Group 2: Analyst Opinions - Guosen Futures noted that while the monsoon in India is strengthening, the southern region is experiencing low rainfall, which may dampen optimistic expectations for local crops. Additionally, Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline significantly compared to the previous year [2] - Green Dahan Futures observed that raw sugar prices rose again, with the market needing to monitor whether significant rainfall will occur in India. Technically, raw sugar shows signs of recovery from low levels, with a focus on the support level at 16 cents per pound [3] - Domestic sugar prices in Zhengzhou have shown a strong trend, supported by a slight rise in external markets and the exit of short positions. The upcoming summer season is expected to improve sugar consumption [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to reach a temporary bottom. The overnight surge in crude oil prices led to a rise in energy - chemical commodities this morning, and Zhengzhou sugar rebounded accordingly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Sugar Market**: On Thursday, New York raw sugar futures weakened. The main July contract closed down 0.97% to 16.26 cents per pound. The main August contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed down 1.4% to $466.30 per ton. The market is waiting for the production data of the second half of May in the central - southern region of Brazil to be announced by Unica. The intense military conflict between Israel and Iran caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which is beneficial to sugar prices [7] - **Domestic Sugar Market**: Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after reaching the bottom. The 09 contract closed at 5,664 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with an increase of 646 positions. The spot prices in domestic producing areas declined. The price of Kunming sugar was 5,815 yuan, and that of Nanning sugar was 6,015 yuan. During the night session, Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The main 09 contract approached the 5,600 mark but then stabilized and rebounded, indicating strong support at this level [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazilian Sugar Production and Export**: A survey of 20 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights shows that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May is expected to increase by 1.2% year - on - year to 45.91 million tons. Sugar production is expected to increase by 4.7% to 2.839 million tons. Ethanol production is expected to decrease by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.005 billion liters. The sugar content of sugarcane (ATR) is expected to decrease by 3.8% year - on - year to 125.17 kg/ton. The ratio of sugarcane to sugar production is expected to be 51.84%, compared with 48.2% in the same period last year. Brazil exported 783,197.58 tons of sugar in the first week of June, with an average daily export volume of 156,639.52 tons, a 2% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in June last year [9] - **Indian Sugar Production**: Indian growers and industry officials said that India will have a sugar production surplus for at least two consecutive years. Due to sufficient rainfall, millions of farmers have expanded the planting area of sugarcane, and the crop yield is expected to increase. The rebound in production will enable India to increase exports in the 2025/26 season [9] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 654,500 tons, an increase of 122,800 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangdong were 654,500 tons, an increase of 223,600 tons year - on - year; the industrial inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 100,800 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 100%, an increase of 18.97% year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Guangdong were 3,900 tons. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the final sugar production in Xinjiang was 814,200 tons, an increase of 255,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Xinjiang were 618,800 tons, an increase of 231,400 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 76%, an increase of 6.65% year - on - year; the industrial inventory was 195,400 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Xinjiang were 73,700 tons [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures and a table showing the trading volume and position changes of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, including details such as the trading volume, increase or decrease of trading volume, long - position volume, increase or decrease of long - position volume, short - position volume, and increase or decrease of short - position volume of each member [21]