乳业精深加工
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乳业深度调整期寻路,两会代表热议精深加工破局与“一老一小”扩容
第一财经· 2026-03-06 11:59
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a profound structural transformation due to nearly two years of deep adjustments, weak consumer demand recovery, and a temporary surplus of raw milk, leading to widespread performance pressure among listed companies [3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since 2025, the performance of major domestic dairy companies has further declined, with many issuing profit warnings. Nielsen IQ data indicates an 8.6% overall decline in domestic dairy product consumption across all channels in 2025 [5]. - The decline in dairy consumption is primarily attributed to the shrinking sales of liquid milk products, reflecting a long-standing structural imbalance in the industry. In comparison to developed countries like the Netherlands and France, where liquid milk and deep-processed products have a balanced structure of about 5:5, China's liquid milk consumption accounts for 92.7%, while high-value products like cheese and butter make up less than 7.3% [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Industry representatives have called for accelerating the development of deep processing in dairy products to address the structural issues. This includes using deep processing as a "reservoir" to regulate raw milk capacity and enhance the comprehensive utilization efficiency of raw milk through high-value functional ingredients [6]. - Key dairy companies have made progress in deep processing. For instance, Mengniu has completed tests on its first batch of deep-processed products, while Feihe has achieved 100% self-sufficiency in key raw materials like concentrated whey protein and lactoferrin [6]. Group 3: Market Expansion Opportunities - To stimulate short-term consumption, representatives suggest tapping into the "one old, one young" market. For the youth segment, there is a push to support the development of student milk programs, which currently only cover about 17% of students in compulsory education, indicating significant room for improvement [9]. - In the elderly segment, the aging population presents an opportunity for growth in the senior food market. As of the end of 2025, the population aged 60 and above is projected to reach 320 million, accounting for 23% of the total population [10]. However, the market faces challenges that require systematic solutions to meet the nutritional needs of the elderly [10].