Group 1 - Daqing's agricultural product processing industry is experiencing high-quality development, with a projected revenue of 25.17 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Lin Dian Wang Shi Food Processing Co., Ltd. has transformed from selling raw grains to producing pancakes, effectively mitigating market risks associated with grain sales [1] - The company operates five production lines, capable of producing 470-500 jin (approximately 235-250 kg) of pancakes daily, with sales covering the entire country [1] Group 2 - Daqing has established a significant rice and corn processing industry, with 31 large-scale rice processing enterprises and an annual processing capacity of 1.45 million tons [2] - Zhaoyuan rice has become one of the first geographical indications recognized by China and the EU, contributing to regional economic development [2] - The corn processing sector is also growing, with 10 large-scale enterprises and a notable output from Yipin, which has maintained over 4 billion yuan in revenue for three consecutive years [2] Group 3 - The dairy and meat industries in Daqing are thriving, with major companies like Yili and Mengniu leading the market [3] - Lin Dian County ranks among the top in dairy processing at the county level, while the meat industry is supported by a comprehensive supply chain from breeding to processing [4] - Daqing is developing a diversified agricultural industry system focusing on four main industries (dairy, meat, corn, rice) and eight specialty industries, enhancing the region's economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, leading dairy companies Yili and Mengniu have both conducted significant share buybacks, with amounts exceeding 1.5 billion RMB each. The overall dairy industry is facing pressure due to oversupply and weakened demand, leading to declining profits for more than half of the companies in 2024 [1][10]. Industry Summary - The dairy industry in China has 28 listed companies in A and H shares, with over half experiencing a decline in both revenue and net profit in 2024 due to market conditions [1]. - In 2024, the top three dairy companies by revenue were Yili, Mengniu, and Bright Dairy, with total revenues of 1157.8 billion RMB, 886.75 billion RMB, and 242.78 billion RMB respectively, all showing a decline of over 8% year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue of Yili decreased by 8.24% due to reduced sales volume and lower prices, while Mengniu's revenue fell by 10.1%, with its liquid milk segment dropping by 10.97% [4][8]. Company Performance - In 2024, nine dairy companies reported losses, accounting for over 30% of the sector, with Modern Dairy leading with a loss of 1.417 billion RMB. Modern Dairy also issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of between 800 million to 1 billion RMB for the first half of 2025 [7]. - Among the 19 listed dairy companies, over 60% saw a decline in revenue in 2024, with 15 companies experiencing a drop in both revenue and profit [8]. - Bright Dairy's total revenue decreased by 8.33% to 242.78 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 25.36% to 72.2 million RMB in 2024 [8]. Growth and Recovery - Seven dairy companies, including China Feihe, Beingmate, and Ausnutria, reported year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit in 2024, indicating pockets of resilience within the sector [2][9]. - Beingmate achieved a revenue of 2.773 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth of 9.7%, and a net profit increase of 116.92% [9]. Share Buyback Activities - Mengniu announced a share buyback plan worth up to 2 billion HKD, with 28.824 million shares repurchased at a cost of 454 million HKD as of July 2, 2025 [10][12]. - Yili completed a share buyback of approximately 40.54 million shares, representing 0.6368% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 1.007 billion RMB [13][14]. - Beingmate also disclosed a share buyback plan with a budget of 150 million to 300 million RMB, although no shares had been repurchased as of June 30, 2025 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic dairy market in China has entered a deep adjustment phase since 2024, with liquid milk experiencing its first decline in years. Major dairy companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to explore new growth opportunities [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ice cream business has become a breakthrough for Chinese dairy companies in Southeast Asia, with brands like Aice and Joyday gaining significant market share [2][3]. - In 2024, Aice achieved a revenue of 3 billion yuan and became the market leader in Indonesia, while Joyday also ranked among the top three in Thailand and Indonesia [2][3]. - The Southeast Asian market is characterized by a young population and a growing demand for dairy products, with per capita disposable income in countries like Malaysia and Thailand being relatively high [10][11]. Group 2: Strategic Approaches - Companies like Yili and Mengniu have adopted a strategy of entering the market with ice cream products due to the favorable climate and consumer preferences in Southeast Asia [4][10]. - Yili has localized its product offerings after extensive market research, leading to the successful introduction of over 50 localized products since 2018 [5][6]. - Mengniu has utilized domestic marketing strategies, such as providing free ice cream cabinets to small retailers, to establish a presence in the competitive market [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the success in ice cream, challenges remain for broader dairy product exports, including issues of food safety trust and high production costs compared to major exporting countries [14][16]. - The logistics and supply chain complexities in Southeast Asia pose additional challenges, with many regions lacking adequate infrastructure [14][15]. - The potential for growth in the Southeast Asian dairy market is significant, as current per capita liquid milk consumption is low, indicating room for expansion [11][12].

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生李晴报道 乳业需求继续下滑。 尼尔森IQ数据显示,2025年1-5月，全国液态奶销售额同比下滑7.5%。其中，线下同比下滑9.7%，线上增 长4.8%。此外，在4月，乳品全渠道销售额同比下滑9.5%。 如此态势下，有关部门下场救市。 据农业农村部官网，6月25日，农业农村部召开加快奶业纾困持续提升奶业高质量发展水平座谈会，农 业农村部党组书记、部长韩俊主持会议并讲话。 会上，韩俊指出，去年以来，针对肉牛奶牛生产面临的严峻形势，农业农村部会同有关部门和地方出台 一系列产业纾困政策，多措并举帮助行业渡过难关，在各方面共同努力下，肉牛产业纾困有了实质性进 展，但奶牛产业纾困任务依然艰巨。要持续推动产业纾困措施落地见效，在延长产业链、提升附加值、 增强竞争力上下功夫，推动奶业发展尽快迎来"拐点"。 仙坛股份：向全资子公司增资1亿元 韩俊强调，要加力实施产业纾困政策，指导各地尽快落实补助奖励项目，持续给予信贷支持，加强奶牛 养殖场户动态监测和帮扶支持，有序淘汰落后产能，控制新增产能，稳定生产主体信心和奶业发展根 基。 要多措并举提振奶类消费，持续加强乳品消费的科普宣传，提高国民对饮奶有 ...

资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 47% 三元股份 食品饮料 | 最新收盘价（元） | 4.37 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）15.09 | / 14.98 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）66 | / 65 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 5.49 / 3.54 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.7% | | 市盈率 | 121.39 | | 第一大股东 | 北京首农食品集团有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 三元股份(600429) 短期需求承压，经营质量不断改善 l 投资要点 ...

# 全球市场导读刊物 25.06.24 ⽬录 Contents • ⾼盛 GS：中国宏观三要点⸺消费强劲、地产低迷、出⼝前置影响可控 ⼀、⾼盛 GS：中国宏观三要点⸺消费强劲、地产低迷、出⼝前置影响可控 1. 5⽉经济数据表现分化，但总体达标： 中国5⽉宏观活动数据好坏参半，固定资产投资增速仅为3.7%（低于预期4.0%），⼯业增加值为 5.8%（略低于预期6.0%），但社会消费品零售总额强劲增⻓6.4%，远超市场预期4.9%。其中家电 销售在政府"以旧换新"政策推动下同⽐⼤增50%。结合4⽉数据，第⼆季度GDP增速略⾼于 5.0%，⾜以⽀撑政策⾯维持现状，减轻短期进⼀步宽松压⼒。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 ⾼盛重估未来⼏年中国城市住房新增需求，考虑到投资性购房情绪减退及棚改带来的拆迁⾼峰已 ...

一杯醇厚浓郁的牛奶，开启了很多人活力满满的一天。 民以食为天。"米袋子""菜篮子""肉盘子"之外，还有"奶瓶子"。牛奶富含多种营养，是自然赠与人类 的"最接近完美的食物"。奶业是强壮民族、健康中国不可或缺的战略性产业，是现代农业和食品工业有 机融合的重要产业。 习近平总书记高度重视奶业发展。2014年1月，在内蒙古考察期间，习近平总书记要求伊利：把好产品 质量关，确保消费者舌尖上的安全；探索一些好办法，帮助农牧民更多分享产业利润效益，真正同龙头 企业等经营主体形成利益共同体。2017年1月，总书记在考察河北旗帜乳业时指出，要下决心把乳业做 强做优，生产出让人民群众满意、放心的高品质乳业产品，打造出具有国际竞争力的乳业产业，培育出 具有世界知名度的乳业品牌。 从奶业大国到奶业强国，考验着奶业全链条的耐心、匠心与决心。 从低谷里跨越 走进超市，纯奶、酸奶、奶粉、奶酪等各类乳制品摆满了货架，从常温奶到巴氏奶，从基础款到功能 款，让人目不暇接。其实，在我国，奶业某种意义上算是新兴产业，真正得到快速发展也就是最近20多 年的事情。2000年，我国人均乳制品消费量仅7公斤多，2015年达36公斤，目前约42公斤。 农业农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry in China is facing significant challenges in 2024 due to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, leading to a continuous decline in fresh milk prices and worsening competition among companies [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, major dairy brands such as Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported revenue declines of 8.24%, 10.09%, and 8.33% respectively, with net profits dropping by 18.94%, 97.83%, and 25.36% [1][3]. - Yili's revenue for 2024 was 1157.80 billion yuan, marking its first negative growth since its listing, with a significant drop in liquid milk revenue, which accounts for over 60% of total revenue [3][5]. - Yili's liquid milk revenue fell by 12.32% to 750.03 billion yuan, while its ice cream revenue decreased by 18.41% to 87.21 billion yuan; however, its milk powder and dairy products segment saw a 7.53% increase in revenue [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese dairy market has entered a prolonged adjustment period since 2022, with retail sales growth turning negative and ongoing weak demand [3][13]. - The supply of raw milk has outpaced demand, resulting in an imbalance that has driven down retail prices for dairy products [3][13]. - The overall consumption of liquid milk in China has been declining, with a notable 8.6% drop in 2022 [13]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yili has implemented cost-cutting measures, reducing sales and management expenses by 2.61% and 13.37% respectively, saving a total of 1.279 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with a focus on milk powder, which has shown growth, and has ventured into new markets such as high-end bottled water and pet food [8][10]. - Yili's recent product launches include sugar-free tea and functional nutrition products targeting the elderly, indicating a strategic shift to reduce reliance on traditional dairy products [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dairy industry is at a crossroads, with companies needing to explore new growth avenues in a saturated market, as seen with Yili's efforts to expand into non-dairy segments [11][15]. - The competition in emerging markets such as pet food and health-focused products is intensifying, requiring established players like Yili to adapt quickly to maintain market leadership [15][16]. - The transformation journey for Yili and other dairy giants is expected to be challenging but essential for their survival and growth in the evolving consumer landscape [16].

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" 低价补贴模式或难以为继。 " 作者丨陈嘉欣 编辑丨梁辰 最近，一场"没有假球，全是世仇"的苏超球赛成为国民级热梗来源。热心网友喊话宿迁人刘强东，比起京 东不久前赞助的欧冠，苏超的"爱恨情仇"或许更值得直播带货。 6月13日，听劝的京东官宣成为苏超官方战略合作伙伴。"场上十三太保，场下京东管饱"等玩梗标语的传 播度随赛事热度一起增长，让京东再次成为外卖平台中的"显眼包"。 对于刚闯入外卖赛道的京东来说，苏超是一个难得的营销机遇。 京东相关负责人表示，双方合作将打造"体育+电商+外卖"的创新融合模式，赛事期间，京东将推出1万罐 啤酒1分钱送活动，赛事结束后则将开启获胜城市特色商品、美食外卖和农特产品大补贴秒杀活动等。 夏季的大型体育赛事一般都是外卖平台的狂欢时刻。饿了么数据显示，去年欧洲杯期间，夜宵时间段内冰 品冷饮外卖量环比增长100%，零售外卖量环比增长也超过30%。 过去这块红利被美团饿了么两家瓜分，如今京东入场搅局，谁能优先拿到合作名额，意味着谁将在后续竞 争中有更大胜算。这对想在外卖赛道站稳脚跟的京东来说，是不可能放弃的好机会。 据统计，5月15日京东日订单量突破2000万单。从1000万单增长到2 ...