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 天润乳业(600419):Q3疆内稳健增长 静待后续行业回暖
 Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 00:27
 Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.1 billion yuan, down 149.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 0.08 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][2]   Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 0.68 billion yuan, a decline of 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.01 billion yuan, down 78.1% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 0.02 billion yuan, down 62.7% year-on-year [1] - By product category in Q3 2025, revenue from ambient dairy products was 0.36 billion yuan (-3.8%), from chilled dairy products was 0.26 billion yuan (-5.9%), and from livestock products was 0.03 billion yuan (+80.1%) [1] - By region in Q3 2025, revenue from the domestic market was 0.36 billion yuan (+10.2%), while revenue from outside the region was 0.30 billion yuan (-13.7%) [1]   Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 16.2%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 14.7%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weakened scale effects and product structure adjustments [2] - In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio was 6.5% (+0.1 percentage points), the management expense ratio was 3.5% (-0.3 percentage points), the R&D expense ratio was 0.7% (-0.2 percentage points), and the financial expense ratio was 0.4% (-1.1 percentage points) [2]   Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on both domestic and external market strategies, enhancing channel penetration and expanding into southern regions to solidify its domestic advantages, which lays a solid foundation for expansion outside the region [3] - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate in milk sources and a strong product matrix, which supports future growth, with unique product flavors leading to high consumer repurchase rates [3] - The company expects to see improved profitability as the milk price stabilizes following a gradual reduction in industry inventory levels [3]   Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 0.10 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.47 yuan, corresponding to dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 95 times, 26 times, and 21 times, respectively [3]