以下文章来源于赢销力 ，作者程信 赢销力 . 135万+食品、饮料快消人都在关注的精准媒介！ 聚焦快消品行业资讯、热点、方法与案例四大核心板块！ "10万+爆款文章生产户"，深度覆盖行业读者超 1000 万次！ 前言： 半年卖了万头牛，还亏损千万，知名乳企苦熬阵痛期。 2 025年已过四分之三，国内乳制品行业在消费依旧疲软、成本高位运行、市场竞争白热化等多重压力下，迎来了新一轮财季的检验。 近日， 天润乳业发布 了 2025年三季度 业绩 报告 ， 公司前三季度 实现营收 20.74亿元，同比下滑3.81%；实现净利润-0.12亿元，同比下滑 147.66% 。其中，第三季度天润乳业营收 6.78亿元，同比下滑4.84%；实现净利润0.11亿元，同比下滑77.6%。 这是天润乳业近十年同期首次 出现亏损。 01 前三季 度 亏损 千万 此次亏损， 天润乳业表示，主要系公司加大低生产价值牛只淘汰力度、计提学生奶和哺育工程奶应收账款坏账准备所致。 天润乳业亏损主要来自第一季度。该季度公司实现营业收入 6.25亿元，同比下降2.50%；净利润亏损7330.36万元，上年同期盈利454.35万元。 彼时， 天润乳业表 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.1 billion yuan, down 149.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 0.08 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 0.68 billion yuan, a decline of 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.01 billion yuan, down 78.1% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 0.02 billion yuan, down 62.7% year-on-year [1] - By product category in Q3 2025, revenue from ambient dairy products was 0.36 billion yuan (-3.8%), from chilled dairy products was 0.26 billion yuan (-5.9%), and from livestock products was 0.03 billion yuan (+80.1%) [1] - By region in Q3 2025, revenue from the domestic market was 0.36 billion yuan (+10.2%), while revenue from outside the region was 0.30 billion yuan (-13.7%) [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 16.2%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 14.7%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weakened scale effects and product structure adjustments [2] - In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio was 6.5% (+0.1 percentage points), the management expense ratio was 3.5% (-0.3 percentage points), the R&D expense ratio was 0.7% (-0.2 percentage points), and the financial expense ratio was 0.4% (-1.1 percentage points) [2] Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on both domestic and external market strategies, enhancing channel penetration and expanding into southern regions to solidify its domestic advantages, which lays a solid foundation for expansion outside the region [3] - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate in milk sources and a strong product matrix, which supports future growth, with unique product flavors leading to high consumer repurchase rates [3] - The company expects to see improved profitability as the milk price stabilizes following a gradual reduction in industry inventory levels [3] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 0.10 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.47 yuan, corresponding to dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 95 times, 26 times, and 21 times, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q3 due to ongoing weak demand in the dairy industry, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 4.84% [4]. - The company's net profit for Q3 was 11.24 million, down 77.60% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 18.75 million, a decrease of 62.71% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the company will show significant profit elasticity once supply and demand in the industry balance out, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.14, 0.54, and 0.71 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.074 billion, a decrease of 3.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of -10.62 million, down 147.66% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 678 million, a decline of 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.24 million, down 77.60% year-on-year [2][4]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various product segments in Q3 included 358 million from ambient dairy products, 264 million from chilled dairy products, and 30.47 million from livestock products, with year-on-year changes of -3.81%, -5.87%, and +80.10% respectively [4]. - Revenue from different regions showed an increase of 10.16% in the domestic market, while revenue from outside the region decreased by 13.69% [4]. Operational Strategies - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement through various measures, including expanding market channels and launching new product flavors [4]. - The company has opened over 800 stores nationwide and is optimizing its cattle structure to enhance breeding efficiency [4]. Profitability Outlook - The report indicates that the company's gross margin in Q3 was 14.72%, down 5.15 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix effects [4]. - The overall profit outlook remains under pressure in the short term, but the company is expected to benefit from improved profitability once the industry stabilizes [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the competitive dairy market and a slow recovery in end-user demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -11 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 147.66%. The adjusted net profit was 77 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.12% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11 million yuan, a decrease of 77.60%, and an adjusted net profit of 19 million yuan, down 62.71% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 14.72% and 0.64%, respectively, reflecting declines of 5.15 and 5.68 percentage points, attributed to intense competition and increased promotional activities [2]. Product and Market Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from various product lines included 358 million yuan from ambient dairy products, 264 million yuan from low-temperature dairy products, and 30 million yuan from livestock products, with year-on-year changes of -4%, -6%, and +80%, respectively [1]. - Revenue from different regions showed that the company generated 358 million yuan in the local market (up 10% year-on-year) and 300 million yuan in external markets (down 14% year-on-year) [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding market channels and developing new products, with efforts including the establishment of an e-commerce subsidiary and the introduction of new products such as low-temperature yogurt and flavored milk beer [2]. - The company is optimizing its livestock structure, with a total of 51,900 cattle at the end of Q3 2025, and an increased proportion of breeding cows to 56%, enhancing feeding efficiency [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 43 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 211 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.54, and 0.67 yuan per share, and PE ratios of 85X, 22X, and 17X [3].