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瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20250923
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate is supported by the ongoing geopolitical conflict, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the freight rate pressure is still significant. The "price war" has led to continuous pressure on the fundamentals. The demand expectation of the container shipping index (European line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1100.000, EC second - main contract closing price: 1623.4, down 45.80 [1] - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 523.40, up 36.80; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 435.60, up 44.30 [1] - EC contract basis: 154.92, down 6.30 [1] - EC main contract position: 41508, down 4522 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1440.24, down 185.32; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1193.64, down 156.20 [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1198.21, down 199.90; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.09 [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1120.23, down 5.07; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1470.97, down 66.31 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2203.00, down 31.00; Panama freight index (daily): 1845.00, down 23.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 14490.00, down 26.00; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 29975.00, up 975.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - At the press conference, it was introduced that as of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market scale ranked second in the world; the foreign exchange reserve scale ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. The total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceeded 500 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth of 9% in the past 5 years; the assets under management of trust, wealth management, and insurance asset management institutions were nearly 100 trillion yuan; the loans for "whitelist" projects exceeded 7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [1] - Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the two heads of state maintain close communication, and the two sides are communicating on the specific issue [1] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe that the current interest rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral" and the space for further interest rate cuts is limited, while others advocate for interest rate cuts [1] 3.4 Market Situation - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 rose 2%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. The spot indicators continued to decline and the decline widened [1] - Before the National Day holiday, liner companies lowered freight rates to increase cargo collection. The opening quotes of 20GP and 40GP decreased compared with the previous week. The average quote of the Gemini Alliance dropped to 1920 US dollars/FEU, triggering a "price war" [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects an over 90% probability of another interest rate cut in October. The internal demand in the eurozone is still weak, and the GDP growth in the second quarter was only 0.1% quarter - on - quarter [1] 3.5 Key Points to Watch - German IFO business climate index for September on September 24 at 16:00 - US new home sales annualized total for August (in 10,000 units) on September 24 at 22:00 [1]