本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据指标 | | 项目类别 | 最新 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | | 1706.000 | -168.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1163.3 | -58.20↓ | | 542.70 | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -54.40↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | | 291.00 | -65.20↓ | | EC合约基差 | | | 89.83 +73.10↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | | 20008 -1803↓ | | | | | 1795 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-08 下半月运价逐步修正，关注后续持续调整情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第四周价格1685/2710；HPL 1月上半月报价1835/3035，1月下半月船 期报价2135/3535，2月上半月船期报价1835/3035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC1月上半月价格1700/2840，1月下半月船期报价1700/2840；ONE 1月上半月船期报价 2110/2835，1月下半月船期报价2440/3335；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1533/2636，1月下半月船期报价 1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1859/3293，1月下半月船期报价2509/4093；EMC 1月上半 月船期报价介于3030-3230，1月下半月船期报价3330-3530美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价介于3043-3130 美元/FEU，1月下半月船期报价3080-3130美元/FEU。 地缘端：管遭到以色列坦克和军队的围困，并面临特朗普彻 ...

| 瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | 最新 | | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 -66.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 1182 -23.10↓ | 1779.100 | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -51.80↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 356.20 -99.50↓ | 597.10 | | | EC合约基差 +93.60↑ | 16.73 | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -3185↓ | 21811 | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,250.12 -51.29↓ SCFI（综合指数）（周） 103.40↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 0.00↑ | 1795.83 1656.32 | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 21.94↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,519.06 45.16↑ | 1146.67 | | | 波罗的海干散货指数（日） 21.0 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-07 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 央行明确 2026 年重点工作 观点分享： 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发 展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。 建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好两项支持资本市场的货币政 策工具作用。强化金融市场监管执法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。强化虚拟货币监 管，持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。稳步发展数字人民币。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：多重预期驱动，铜价走强。从供应端看，全球地缘政治持续动荡，引发对铜矿供应的担 忧。特朗普宣称美国企业将投资数十亿美元修复委石油基础设施，暴露资源控制意图。市场 担心其可能挤压其他国家在核心产区的权益，增加区域铜矿供应断裂的风险，从而提升全球 铜矿供应的干扰率。同时，2026 年中国进口铜精矿长单 TC 为 0 美元/吨 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2026/1/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC主力收盘价 | 13.3↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1872.700 | 1223.8 | +34.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -8.60↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 648.90 | 455.70 | -10.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | -17.20↓ | -76.87 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1050↓ | 24996 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） SCFI（综合指数）（周） ...

上海一家头部货代企业在开拓直客市场过程中，面临远期运费成本波动的经营风险。国泰君安期货基于对集运指 数（欧线）期货的深入研究，为企业量身定制套期保值方案，通过买入EC2512合约，有效对冲未来拿舱成本上涨 的风险。 该方案帮助企业在2025年11—12月标案中锁定300美元/FEU的稳定利润，提升了资金使用效率与风险管理能力，为 企业战略转型提供了金融支持。 项目背景 服务方案与开展过程 方案设计：基于基本面研究的套期保值策略 国泰君安期货研究团队结合中东地缘政治局势、欧洲经济复苏态势、班轮公司运力控制能力及中国对欧洲出口结 构等多重因素，综合研判2025年年底欧线运价具备支撑。在此基础上，建议企业利用集运指数（欧线）期货进行 买入套期保值，以期货市场的盈利对冲未来现货拿舱成本的上涨。 图为中国至欧洲月度周均运力情况 实施过程：精准匹配头寸与合约 行业共性问题 航运市场中，运价波动是产业链各环节面临的主要经营风险。货代企业与货主通常面临运价上涨带来的成本压 力，需要通过买入航运期货进行对冲，而船公司与一级货代企业需要防范运价下跌风险，可以通过卖出期货合约 锁定利润。然而，受部分环节契约精神不足等问题的影响，中 ...

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | 2026/1/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 27.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1855.500 | | 1198 | +30.80↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2604价差 | +22.20↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 657.50 | | 466.50 | +33.10↑ | | EC合约基差 | | -112.86 | +99.24↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 26046 | 1916↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1795.83 | | 1,250.12 | -51.29↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 103.40↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1656.32 | | 1,2 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) shows increased gaming characteristics and is in a high - level oscillation state [1][4]. - For the 2602 contract, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and in the context of further relaxation of supply - demand and a continuous decline in the freight rate center, the bottom valuation of the 04 contract can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 314,000 TEU/week. Maersk added an extra ship in wk3, and COSCO's AEU3 voyages from wk5 to wk7 were delayed by one week. The shipping schedules in January became more even, with the market capacity from week 1 to 5 ranging between 308,000 and 323,000 TEU. The OA Alliance's capacity peak occurred in wk4 (144,200 TEU), and the PA Alliance's in wk3 (57,700 TEU). The Gemini Alliance and MSK had relatively stable capacity deployment [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 6 empty sailings and 4 undetermined ones, with an average weekly capacity of 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 4 undetermined voyages). Except for the GEMINI Alliance, other shipping companies have not released their Chinese New Year suspension plans [4]. - In terms of geopolitics, the Middle - East geopolitical situation did not significantly cool down during the New Year's Day holiday. In the demand aspect, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good in January, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak may appear around mid - January, then decline and drop more sharply from early February [5]. 3.2 Price - SCFIS Index: In wk1 (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), there were 17 departing vessels (318,000 TEU), of which 7 (129,000 TEU) were delayed from wk52. It is subjectively estimated that the SCFIS index on January 5 may be around 1860 points [16]. - Spot Freight Rates: The freight rate height of the 2602 contract: As MSC raises the freight rate by $300/FEU in the second half of the month, the current static FAK average in wk3 is around $2,860/FEU. The inflection point time: First, observe Maersk's cabin opening situation in wk4 next Tuesday, then observe the pricing strategies of the PA Alliance and OA Alliance for the second half of the month. The decline rate: After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be large [6][19]. 3.3 Demand Side - Asian exports to Europe: The container trade volume between Asia and Europe (North - West Europe + Mediterranean) has shown certain fluctuations from 2011 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the trade volume in January was 1,768,400 TEU, and in February was 1,114,400 TEU [31]. - Asian exports to North America: The container trade volume between Asia and North America also fluctuated from 2011 to 2025. In 2025, the trade volume in January was 2,118,800 TEU, showing an 8.2% year - on - year increase [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - Supply Chain Risk Events: Geopolitical situations are disturbing. There are risks of regional escalation in the Middle - East, and instability in Yemen. Although some shipping companies have made trial voyages through the Red Sea, it does not mean the full - scale resumption of normal operations on the Red Sea route [48][49]. - Shipping Schedules: The shipping capacity in January changed little, and the February schedule has some empty sailings and undetermined voyages [4][52]. - Turnover Efficiency: It includes aspects such as sailing speed, idle capacity, regional congestion, and congestion at major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [59][61][64]. - Static Capacity: In December, the top ten shipping companies received new ships of different sizes and deployed them on different routes. In the next three months, they are also expected to receive a number of new ships [77][80].

MSC以及马士基1月下半月线上涨价，02合约估值不断抬升 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第二周报价1600/2580，1月第三周报价1625/2610；HPL 1月上半月报 价1835/3035，1月下半月船期报价2135/3535，2月上半月船期报价1835/3035. 航运月报 | 2026-01-04 动态供给：1月份月度周均运力31.86万TEU，WEEK2/3/4/5周运力分别为35.56/30.94/33.07/27.87万TEU。2月份月 度周均运力28.35万TEU，WEEK6/7/8/9周运力分别为38.13/26.59/24.72/23.98万TEU；3月份月度周均运力27.24万 TEU，WEEK10/11/12/13/14周运力分别为25.44/27.31/32.88/24.83/25.72万TEU，1月份共计3个空班（OA联盟2个和 PA联盟1个）和1个TBN（OA联盟1个），2月份共计7个TBN(OA联盟4个，MSC/PA联盟3个）和4个空班（OA联盟 1个空班，PA联盟2个空班，双子星联盟1个空班)。3月份共计3个空班和7个 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2602 | -0.32 | -5.80 | 1801.30 | | | EC2604 | 1.09 | 12.60 | 1166.00 | | | EC2606 | 4.22 | 55.40 | 1367.90 | | | EC2608 | 1.08 | 16.00 | 1500.00 | | | EC2610 | 0.85 | 8.90 | 1060.00 | | | EC2612 | -0.24 | -3.10 | 1297.00 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | SCFIS | ...