集运指数(欧线)期货

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集装箱产业风险管理日报-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 12:02
集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/09 俞俊臣(投资咨询证号:Z0021065) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2512 | 卖出 | 1750~1800 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2512 | 买入 | 1550~1600 | | 南华期货 source: | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格低开下行后震荡回升。 截至收盘,EC各合约价格均有不同程度 的下行,其中,02和06合约跌幅超10%。从交易 ...
美国即将对中国船舶征收港口费 对航运市场影响几何?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-09 00:54
中国船东运营成本将增加 方正中期期货资深海运和宏观分析师陈臻向记者表示,从细则可以看出,三条收费情况中的前两条指名 道姓针对中国船东和中国船厂,同时也是为了重振美国造船业,增加税收。 他表示,港口费将大幅提升中国船东和中国船舶的运营成本,以美线主要使用的12000TEU集装箱船舶 为例,仅挂靠1次美国港口的费用,船东预计增加304美元/TEU的运营成本,船舶预计增加120美元/ TEU的运营成本。 2025年4月,美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)推出了一项针对中国船舶和运营商的收费措施——任何停 靠在美国港口的中国船舶都将被征收额外费用。该措施定于2025年10月14日起实施。 记者注意到,美国海关与边境保护局(CBP)在10月3日公布了关于对中国拥有、运营、建造的船舶, 以及所有外国制造的汽车运输船征收港口费的细则:对中国拥有或运营的船舶按每净吨50美元收费 (2026年增至80美元,2027年增至110美元,2028年增至140美元);对中国建造的船舶按每净吨18美元 或每个集装箱120美元收费,取两者中的较高者收费(2028年分别增至33美元和250美元);对非美国建 造的汽车运输船(滚装船)按每净吨14 ...
注意,美国即将对中国船舶征收港口费!对航运市场影响几何?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-08 23:42
2025年4月,美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)推出了一项针对中国船舶和运营商的收费措施——任何停 靠在美国港口的中国船舶都将被征收额外费用。该措施定于2025年10月14日起实施。 期货日报记者注意到,美国海关与边境保护局(CBP)在10月3日公布了关于对中国拥有、运营、建造 的船舶,以及所有外国制造的汽车运输船征收港口费的细则:对中国拥有或运营的船舶按每净吨50美元 收费(2026年增至80美元,2027年增至110美元,2028年增至140美元);对中国建造的船舶按每净吨18 美元或每个集装箱120美元收费,取两者中的较高者收费(2028年分别增至33美元和250美元);对非美 国建造的汽车运输船(滚装船)按每净吨14美元收费。 上述港口费必须在抵达美国境内第一个港口前三个工作日,通过美国财政部官方支付平台Pay.gov完成 缴费。若未能在系统中完成支付或提交有效凭证,船舶将面临被拒绝装卸、延迟放行甚至暂停清关的风 险。 相比此前公布的征询版,此次细则版最显著的区别在于由船舶运营商自行判断是否需要对某艘挂靠美国 港口的船舶提前支付港口费。 作为反击,9月底,我国决定对《中华人民共和国国际海运条例》作出修改 ...
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250930
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 10:18
集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/30 俞俊臣(投资咨询证号:Z0021065) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1200~1300 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 950~1050 | | source: 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格低开后震荡上行,但临近收盘时明显回落。 截至收盘,EC各合 约价格涨跌互现。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去 ...
瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20250930
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2510 closed down 1.02%, and the far - month contracts declined between -1% and -11%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 134.43 points from last week, a 10.7% week - on - week decline. Spot indicators continued to fall, and the futures prices lacked support. [1] - Maersk's spot cabin quotes for European lines stopped falling and rebounded in mid - October, and MSC's quotes followed with a small increase later, leading to a recovery in futures price valuation. Geopolitical conflicts supported the futures prices, but before the National Day holiday, shipping companies lowered freight rates to increase cargo volume, and the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with significant freight rate pressure. [1] - The recent economic data in the Eurozone fluctuated, with business sentiment indices weaker than expected. The ECB indicated a slower pace of interest rate cuts due to improved economic expectations and easing inflation. Overall, there is uncertainty in the trade war, the demand for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1110.600, down 11.4; EC second - main contract closing price: 1731.9, down 3.10. [1] - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: -621.30, up 20.00; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: -532.20, up 19.80. [1] - EC contract basis: 9.89, up 4.40. [1] - EC main contract position: 24782 hands, down 4532. [1] 2. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1120.49, down 134.43; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 921.25, down 272.39. [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1114.52, down 83.69; spot price: 1087.41, down 69.06. [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): down 32.82; CCFI (European line) (weekly): down 39.00. [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2259.00, down 400.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1832.00, down 14.00. [1] - Average charter price (Panamax): 14769.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize): 30090.00. [1] 3. Industry News - The US Department of Commerce issued export control penetration rules, and China's Ministry of Commerce responded firmly against it. [1] - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a Gaza peace plan was proposed. [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital, and efforts are being made to allocate the funds to specific projects. [1] 4. Key Data to Watch - September manufacturing PMI final values in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on October 1st. [1] - Eurozone September CPI annual rate preliminary value on October 1st. [1] - US September ADP employment figures (in ten thousands) on October 1st. [1] - US September ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1st. [1]
瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20250929
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 08:39
| 集运指数(欧线)期货日报 | | | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 1115.000 | | -35.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1756.3 | -24.30↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -641.30 | | -3.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | -552.00 | -6.00↓ | | EC合约基差 5.49 期货持仓头寸(手) EC主力持仓量 29314 | | -110.43↓ -3117↓ | | | | | SCFIS(欧线)(周) 1120.49 | | -134.43↓ SCFIS(美西线)(周) | | 921.25 | -272.39↓ | | SCFI(综合指数)(周) 1114.52 | | -83.69↓ 集装箱船运力(万标准箱) | | 1,227.97 | 0.04↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI(综合指数)(周) 1087.41 | | -32.82↓ ...
集运指数(欧线):震荡市,关注宣涨的情绪冲击
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:11
2025 年 9 月 29 日 集运指数(欧线):震荡市,关注宣涨的情绪冲击 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,139.0 | -1.86% | 22,035 | 32,431 | -3,095 | 0.68 | | 1.09 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1.74% 1,777.0 | | 19,314 | 21,695 | -1,300 | 0.89 | | 1.02 | | | EC2602 | 1,685.0 2.26% | | 6,466 ...
集运指数(欧线)期货周报-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]
南华期货早评-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:18
金融期货早评 宏观:美国首申失业金人数下降 【市场资讯】1)美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%,创近两年新高,PCE 物价指数 2.6%。 美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人,为 7 月以来最低。2)所有在世的前美联储主席、 多位前财长和前白宫经济顾问致函最高法,不要解雇美联储理事库克!3)美联储理事米兰: 主张每次降息 50 个基点,通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。美联储金融监管副主 席鲍曼:就业市场"脆弱"证明理应进一步降息。美联储明年票委呼吁利率工具改革:美联 储是时候准备新基准了。4)历史罕见!白宫警告政府关门期间或永久裁员,预算僵局再升 级。5)美国被爆施压韩国将投资承诺提高近 2000 亿美元、要现金不要贷款。 【核心逻辑】7-8 月作为三季度经济运行的核心观测期,其披露的数据系统呈现出当前宏 观经济的复杂态势:一方面,经济增速边际放缓的压力已明确显现,地产拖累、消费支撑 弱化、投资增速下行等信号共同构成了这一态势的核心底色;另一方面,政策端的逆周期 调节已精准发力,供需两侧的托底政策正按序落地实施;更深层次看,数据亦揭示了金融 市场与宏观基本面的结构性互动。股票市场在经济 ...
A股大消息!刚刚,沪深北交易所,集体宣布
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-25 11:48
Market Closure Announcement - The A-share market will be closed from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday), resuming normal operations on October 9 (Thursday) [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect will also be unavailable during the same period, with services resuming on October 9 [2] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has announced similar closures for the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with specific trading arrangements detailed [4][5] Trading Margin and Price Limit Adjustments - For the 2025 holiday period, various futures contracts will see adjustments in trading margin ratios and price limit ranges, including: - International copper futures: price limit adjusted to 9%, margin for hedging at 10%, and general positions at 11% [5] - Crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures: price limit adjusted to 12%, margin for hedging at 13%, and general positions at 14% [5] - 20 rubber futures: price limit adjusted to 11%, margin for hedging at 12%, and general positions at 13% [5] - Container shipping index futures: price limit adjusted to 20%, with a margin ratio of 22% [5] - After the holiday, these limits and margins will revert to their original levels on the first trading day without a one-sided market [5]