Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂跌超8%，沪银跌超3%，红枣、低硫燃料 油（LU）、集运指数（欧线）、玻璃、工业硅、SC原油跌超2%；涨幅方面，淀粉涨超1%，玉米涨近 1%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data and the impact on the real economy. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, and the market may focus on this. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate led to a decline in the US dollar index. The domestic LPR remained unchanged, having a neutral impact on the exchange rate. The RMB may gain some appreciation support later [4]. - The US September non - farm payroll report failed to resolve the Fed's internal differences. The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant [5]. - For bonds, real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. - In the container shipping market, the weak spot market and the expected price increase in December are in a game. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can focus on spread reversal opportunities [9][11]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - For copper, the 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. - For steel products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - For LPG, the domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - For PTA - PX, the PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - For methanol, the 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - For PP, it is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - For PE, the supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September. The domestic LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined. The unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate affected the exchange rate, and the RMB may gain appreciation support later [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant due to the unclear Fed's rate - cut decision and other factors [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: Real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - **Copper**: The 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: In the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - **LPG**: The domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - **PP**: It is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - **PE**: The supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. Others - **Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: They are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71].

FICC日报 | 2025-11-21 地缘端：以色列国防部长：必须摧毁哈马斯在加沙的地道网络，以色列军队正在不间断地工作以完成这项任务。 动态供给：动态供给：11月份剩余3周周均运力27.58万TEU，WEEK47/48/49周运力分别为27.87/26.9/27.96万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力31.3万TEU，WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为33.3/27/31.42/33.47万TEU。11月份共计10个空 班和1个TBN（其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班，双子星联盟1个空班，OA联盟5个空班，OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计均 转为空班）。12月份共计4个TBN和1个空班（OA联盟3个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个空班）。 12月合约:12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题，预期和现实交相辉映，估值逐步清晰，关注12月份挺价落地成色。四 季度船司需要为下一年长协谈判做准备，为了保证来年收入基本盘稳固，船司会通过供应端调节使得运价处于较 高位置。节奏方面，12月合约节奏预计首先交易涨价预期（10月中旬左右宣布11月份涨价函，10月底有部分船司 再度发布11月下半月涨价函），然后 ...

航运日报 | 2025-11-20 12月上半月价格逐步报出，关注实际落地情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹48周价格1230/2060，12月第一周价格1600/2500；HPL -SPOT 11月下半 月船期报价1435/2335，12月上半月船期报价2835-3235美元/FEU，12月下半月价格4035美元/FEU。马士基发布12 月份涨价函2080/3200. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 11月下半月价格1425/2365，12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 11月下半月船期 1235/1935，12月上半月价格1565/2435；HMM上海-鹿特丹11月下半月船期报价1268/2106，12月上半月船司价格 1818/3206; YML 11/15-11/30 报价1250/2000。MSC发布12月上半月涨价函为1860/3100. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月下半月船期报价1585/2745，12月上半月船期报价介于3445-3545美元/FEU， 12月下半月船期报价3945-40 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1162.7 -44.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1640.100 | | | | -22.30↓ | | 期货盘面 | -21.10↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 258.10 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 477.40 | | | | -35.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -282.43 | +38.00↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1384↑ | 40244 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,238.42 | 1357.67 | | | | -91.29↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -43.72↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1451.38 | | | | 0.31↑ | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the A-share market performance, highlighting the fluctuations in major indices and sector performances, with a focus on the banking sector and specific stocks that have shown significant movements [3][5][9]. Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.32%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.12% [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.11 trillion yuan, a decrease of 176.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,500 stocks declining [4]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing sectors included the shipbuilding sector, lithium extraction from salt lakes, precious metals, beauty care, and oil and gas [3]. - The banking sector showed strength, with China Bank's stock price reaching a new high, increasing by over 2% [5][6]. Notable Stocks - China Bank's stock rose by 2.60% to 5.93 yuan, while other banks like Everbright Bank and Traffic Bank also saw gains of 1.98% and 1.75%, respectively [6]. - Several high-position stocks continued to decline, with some experiencing limit-down situations [6]. Additional Market Indicators - The shipping index for European routes dropped over 2%, currently at 1649 points [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures saw an increase of over 4% during the day [7]. International Market Context - The Hong Kong market opened with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.09%, and notable gains were seen in companies like Baidu and XPeng Motors [10]. Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 31.05 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, while the previous day's reverse repos amounted to 19.55 billion yuan [11]. - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0872, depreciating by 16 basis points from the previous day [12].

上期所相关工作人员介绍，上期所和上期能源已推出6个国际化特定品种以及32个合格境外投资者可交 易品种，覆盖金属、能源、化工等多个板块。目前SC原油期货已成为全球第三大原油期货市场，20号 胶期货、集运指数（欧线）期货等品种的成交规模远超境外同类产品。在极端市场环境下，上期所展现 出较强的风险抵御能力和价格引导作用，得到了国际市场的广泛认可。 上期所在成都开展期货公司能力提升培训 与此同时，上期所和上期能源在境外品牌注册、跨境交收等方面成果斐然。目前，已有128个境外品牌 注册，包括42个共建"一带一路"国家的境外品牌。上期所通过"制定标准"和"输出标准"，引导境外品牌 厂商在生产工艺、质量标准等环节向中国企业的需求不断倾斜，助力中国企业更好利用"两个市 场"和"两种资源"。 近日，由上期所主办的"上期大学堂——从业人员强化班"期货公司提升服务实体经济能力专班（第二 期）在成都举行。 作为中西部地区重要城市，成都正以创新之力构建金融发展新格局，推动成渝共建西部金融中心走向纵 深阶段。《四川省贯彻〈成渝共建西部金融中心规划〉实施方案》提出，"加强信贷、保险、期货、担 保等金融工具综合应用""支持符合条件的证券期货 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | 收盘价 | 期货合约 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,769.5 | -22.8 | -1.27% | 5,750.0 | -18.98% | 10,432.0 | -13.69% | | EC2602 | 1,678.1 | -47.9 | -2.78% | 29,150.0 | -34.50% | 38,860.0 | -0.05% | | EC2604 | 1,179.6 | -8.1 | -0.68% | 2,737.0 | -41.10% | 16,145.0 | -0.23% | | EC2606 | 1,385.0 | -18.9 | -1.35% | 143.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].