Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic expected drivers are realized as expected, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, the supply keeps increasing year - on - year, the iron ore demand is still restricted by the industrial chain profit, and the basis keeps weakening. It is recommended to short - allocate mainly [2] Summary by Directory Logic - Domestic macro - policies meet expectations. The Two Sessions set the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5.0%, the monetary policy is more active, and the fiscal deficit is planned to be about 4%. Geopolitical impacts are escalating, energy supply risks are rising, causing concerns about the increase in international iron ore transportation costs. Domestic port spot prices have strengthened, but are still restricted by the weak reality [2] Supply - The current overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season. The weekly shipment volume has significantly rebounded this period, with off - season shipments showing above - seasonal growth. Overseas ore shipments are at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The supply of domestic ore is also expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the supply side has entered a high - shipment stage, providing a downward driving force [2] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on the profit level of steel mills and the degree of steel inventory reduction. The probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Attention should be paid to the steel inventory reduction node and the resumption intensity in the later stage. Short - term environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in hot metal. There is a certain restocking expectation after the meeting, but from the current profit level of steel mills and demand expectation, the recovery speed is relatively gentle, and the upward driving force of demand is weak [2] Inventory - Steel mills maintain a low - inventory operation mode and are cautious in procurement. The current port inventory is still in an accumulation state, and the short - term port inventory accumulation pressure is expected to remain high. At the same time, pay attention to the potential selling risk of trade - restricted inventory. The inventory driving force is downward [2] Price - The expected price range is 93 - 100 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to the Dalian iron ore futures at 710 - 760 yuan/ton [3] Strategy - Conduct range operations and sell call options [3]