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黑色建材日报:市场情绪转弱,钢价震荡下行-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment has weakened, with steel prices oscillating downward. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose. The coking coal and coke markets are also in a state of oscillation, with the supply of coke expected to tighten. The power coal market shows a weakening demand, and the pit - mouth coal prices have slightly declined [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, with speculative trading being poor. The production and sales of building materials continued to decline, and inventory increased. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high steel prices affected export orders [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market needs to control steel supply by compressing profits to re - balance supply and demand. However, due to the relatively healthy raw material supply - demand situation, the cost support for steel is strong, so the steel price adjustment space is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and weak [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties remained stable. The trading volume of port iron ore increased by 14.66% to 115.>. .1 . . . . .. . .1. .. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply increased, while the trading volume of forward - spot iron ore decreased by 7.88. The supply of iron ore increased this week, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand contradiction has increased in the short - term, and the supply - demand pattern is generally loose in the long - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures contracts oscillated. Some coking enterprises received environmental protection requirements for 30 - 40% production cuts from August 20th to September 3rd, and steel mills were required to cut production by 20 - 40% from August 30. to September 3rd. The coking coal price was generally stable with a weak trend, and the price of imported Mongolian coal decreased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is expected to tighten at the end of the month, and the coking plants started the seventh round of price hikes. The supply of coking coal is tight, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but the inventory is still at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to be oscillating [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: The pit - mouth coal prices started to decline, and the demand for thermal coal decreased. The port market sentiment declined, and the import coal had a price advantage [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. In the short - term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8].