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中金 • 部院联合 | 新形势下中国钢铁“走出去”路径的再选择
中金点睛· 2026-01-20 23:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's steel industry in response to overcapacity and trade friction, emphasizing the shift from product export to capacity investment abroad as a strategic response to international challenges [3][4][7]. Historical Experience and Logic of Steel Internationalization - The first wave of China's "going out" strategy began around 2015, driven by domestic overcapacity and escalating international trade friction, leading to systematic overseas investments in emerging economies [9]. - Historical experiences indicate that the transition was not unique to China but part of a broader industrialization process, characterized by two main strategies: relocating production and upgrading product structures [10][12]. Current Challenges and New Trends - The current international environment has fundamentally changed, with geopolitical fragmentation, increased scrutiny of foreign direct investment (FDI), and a slowdown in steel demand from emerging economies, making the previous low-end capacity investment model unsustainable [4][7][51]. - The global steel market is facing a structural mismatch between supply and demand, with many emerging markets nearing saturation in steel production capacity, limiting the potential for further overseas investments [58][59]. Structural Demand for High-End Steel - The new economy is creating a structural demand for high-end steel, driven by energy transitions and digital revolutions, which require higher performance and lower carbon attributes [5][64]. - China has a dense domestic demand scenario that can support the technological iteration and large-scale production of high-end steel, positioning it to build a competitive supply system for high-end steel globally [5][64]. Pathways for Future Internationalization - The article proposes two viable pathways for the steel industry: investing in local production to avoid trade barriers for low-end steel and focusing on high-end steel exports that leverage technological advantages [35][36]. - The internationalization strategy should evolve from low-end capacity investment to a focus on high-end products, technology, and standards, aligning with global market demands and environmental regulations [5][51][64].