Group 1 - The article discusses the typical path of inflation initiation, highlighting the transition from financial attributes to commodity attributes [2][3] - The first stage of inflation sees precious metals and rare metals leading the charge, with gold being particularly sensitive to monetary policy and risk aversion [2][3] - The second stage involves energy prices, particularly oil and coal, which rise due to direct cost push, substitution effects, and geopolitical events [4][5] Group 2 - The third stage features agricultural products and chemical products experiencing delayed price increases, driven by rising costs of fertilizers linked to energy prices and extreme weather conditions [6][7] - The fourth stage sees inflation spreading to end consumer prices through the transmission from PPI to CPI, influenced by rising costs in manufacturing and services [8][9] Group 3 - Historical cycles show different paths of inflation transmission based on driving factors, with examples including monetary easing, supply shocks, demand pull, and policy interventions [10][11] - Precious metals often lead in monetary easing cycles, while agricultural products may rise concurrently with energy during supply shocks [10][11] Group 4 - The article outlines the underlying logic of transmission paths, emphasizing the sensitivity of financial attributes and the hierarchical structure of the supply chain [12][13] - The transmission speed from upstream to downstream typically takes 3-6 months, but can be interrupted by excess capacity or weak demand in the midstream [14] Group 5 - Current cycles are characterized by the dual effects of new energy transitions and geopolitical conflicts, reshaping traditional inflation paths [15][16] - The article notes the impact of supply chain weaponization due to geopolitical tensions, leading to price volatility in critical minerals [16] Group 6 - Key monitoring indicators for inflation include gold prices, copper-gold ratios, and oil inventories, while lagging indicators include CPI and PPI transmission rates [18] - The article suggests using a modified version of the Merrill Lynch clock for cycle positioning, recommending different asset allocations based on economic phases [19] Group 7 - The conclusion emphasizes the dynamic nature of inflation transmission paths, which can be summarized as "monetary signals → supply shocks → cost transmission → widespread diffusion," while stressing the importance of a comprehensive analysis framework [20]