1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment premium rapidly increased due to the intensification of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and news related to the Houthi armed forces, pushing up the market. However, this geopolitical event has no substantial impact on actual shipping routes. The market sentiment gradually cooled down and the gains were continuously reversed. Spot freight rates remained stable overall, with the latest quotes from major shipping companies showing differentiation and actual freight forwarding prices having significant discounts. The supply - demand structure has limited support for freight rates. Although the geopolitical conflict advanced the upward inflection point of spot freight rates, the terminal freight demand has not substantially recovered, and the upward space for freight rates is significantly limited [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The present values and previous values of various freight rate indices are provided, along with their corresponding percentage changes. For example, the SCFI - US West index has a present value of 1139, a previous value of 1121, and a growth rate of 1.64%; the SCFI - US East index has a present value of 1263, a previous value of 1024, and a growth rate of 23.34% [1] Geopolitical News - Iran's President Pezeshkian had a call with the Prime Minister of Pakistan for over an hour, informing about contacts with the US and Middle - East countries and hoping to promote dialogue to ease the situation. Iran stopped supplying 10 million cubic meters of natural gas to southern Iraq since the evening of the 27th. The Houthi armed forces launched an attack on Israel for the first time in the current war. Iran's armed forces spokesman said they are formulating conditions for ending the war and warned the US and Israel. An Iranian senior security official warned that if the US launches a ground operation in the Middle - East, Iran will take counter - actions, and any military action by the "enemy" in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to its complete and unlimited closure. The US is preparing for a weeks - long ground operation in Iran, and thousands of US soldiers and marines have arrived in the Middle - East [2] Market Conditions - The market showed a weak and volatile trend [2] Logic - The market rise was driven by sentiment, and the actual shipping routes were not affected. The supply - demand structure has limited support for freight rates, and the terminal freight demand has not recovered, restricting the upward space of freight rates [4] Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent trend of non - ferrous metals shows a recovery from a low level, but with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices, non - ferrous metals have also adjusted moderately. There is still long - term demand growth and supply constraints in the non - ferrous metals market. The core concern of investors has shifted from short - term inflation panic caused by soaring energy prices to deep concerns about long - term economic stagnation or recession. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals may be phased. The main focus of the market in the future will be the assessment and changes of the duration of the geopolitical conflict and the Strait blockade. The change in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation also has an impact on the market [13]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market logics and trends. For example, copper is expected to recover in the medium - to - long term due to factors such as inflation expectations and the entry of downstream consumption into the peak season; zinc is in a state of shock consolidation; the aluminum industry chain has different trends for different products such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy; tin is in a state of shock and is recommended to be observed or take a long - biased approach; lead is in a state of shock and can be considered to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens; nickel and stainless steel are in a state of adjustment, and can be considered to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [3][5][6][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: Non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery from a low level, but have adjusted moderately with the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in energy prices. The market's focus has shifted from short - term inflation panic to concerns about long - term economic stagnation. The impact of high oil prices on non - ferrous metals is phased. The main concerns in the future are the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [13]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis**: - **Copper**: Powell's dovish statement reduces the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike this year, and the rise in gold and silver prices boosts copper prices. However, concerns about the US economic stagflation limit the rebound space of copper. In the medium - to - long term, rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, and copper prices are expected to rise. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight globally, but domestic smelters' production is not significantly restricted. Downstream demand is in the peak season, and the inventory is expected to enter the destocking cycle in April. It is recommended to go long at low prices and use options strategies [3][15]. - **Zinc**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The import ore TC continues to decline, and the domestic ore TC remains flat. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the downstream starts to show differentiation. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, inflation expectations, and demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is disturbed, and the strong US dollar suppresses the non - ferrous metal market. It is recommended to buy on dips. Different products in the aluminum industry chain, such as aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy, have different price ranges and strategies [6][7][17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin market is in a weak shock under the pressure of the US dollar. It is recommended to observe or take a long - biased approach, pay attention to the capital sentiment, the situation of the ore end, and the macro - environment. Options can be used for protection [8][18]. - **Lead**: The geopolitical situation is repeated, and energy prices fall. The supply of primary and secondary lead increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory shows a slight decrease. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the macro - impact weakens and pay attention to the demand recovery and inventory changes [9][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Iranian geopolitical situation may ease, and energy prices are adjusted. Powell's dovish statement boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut. The implementation of Indonesia's nickel windfall tax and export tax is delayed. The supply of nickel ore is strong, and the demand is weak. Stainless steel is in a state of adjustment, and it is recommended to go long at low prices when the macro - sentiment eases [10][18][19]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [20]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The report shows the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and net short positions of each variety, as well as the influencing factors [23]. Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][25]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report presents various charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [26][28][31][36][40][42][44][48]. Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report shows various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, the basis, and the spread of different varieties such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [50][52][54][59][61][63][64]. Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report presents various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, including the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][70][72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has corrected, and the supply remains tight. The asphalt futures market is affected by the crude oil price and geopolitical factors, with short - term volatility. If the terminal consumption recovers seasonally or remains stable, the inventory reduction expectation is strong, and the market structure is still supported. However, the asphalt futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices for inter - period trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 31, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 4,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 1.53% compared with the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 274,080 lots, a net increase of 211 lots, and the trading volume was 1,044,757 lots, a net increase of 83,313 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,636 - 4,690 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4,320 - 4,570 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,530 - 4,750 yuan/ton in South China, and 4,720 - 4,840 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Northeast and South China rose slightly, while those in other regions remained stable. The crude oil and asphalt futures corrected, and the spot market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, with a tight supply in some areas [1]. - Due to raw material shortages, the domestic asphalt refinery production schedule is expected to decline significantly in April. If the terminal consumption recovers seasonally or remains stable, the inventory reduction expectation is strong, and the market structure is supported. The asphalt futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices [2]. - Cross - variety: No recommendation [2]. - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2]. - Options: No recommendation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the US releasing a cease - fire signal, the market's concern about the conflict escalation has cooled, leading to a significant drop in the prices of energy and chemical products. The decline in coal - related prices has also reduced the cost of coal - based olefins, dragging down the price of propylene. From the fundamental perspective of propylene, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. The supply of propylene has tightened again, while the demand side is mainly for low - price rigid replenishment, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for the propylene price before the Middle - East situation shows an obvious easing signal [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene data**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8795 yuan/ton (- 149), the spot price in East China is 9275 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spot price in North China is 8750 yuan/ton (- 20), the basis in East China is 480 yuan/ton (+ 149), the basis in Shandong is - 45 yuan/ton (+ 129), the operating rate is 71% (- 1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 129 US dollars/ton (- 19), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 105 US dollars/ton (+ 1), the import profit is - 1723 yuan/ton (- 68), and the in - plant inventory is 44560 tons (- 1800) [1] - **Propylene downstream data**: The operating rate of PP powder is 22% (- 5.28%), the production profit is - 150 yuan/ton (- 180); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 74% (- 1%), the production profit is 2288 yuan/ton (+ 454); the operating rate of n - butanol is 81% (- 1%), the production profit is 1513 yuan/ton (+ 202); the operating rate of octanol is 89% (+ 1%), the production profit is 892 yuan/ton (+ 214); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 77% (+ 4%), the production profit is 4265 yuan/ton (+ 0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 76% (+ 0%), the production profit is 583 yuan/ton (+ 251); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 87% (- 1%), the production profit is 86 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Price decline reason**: The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the US releasing a cease - fire signal, the cooling of the market's concern about the conflict escalation, and the decline in coal - related prices reducing the cost of coal - based olefins have led to a significant drop in the prices of energy and chemical products [2] - **Supply situation**: The supply of raw material propane has tightened again, the raw material inventory of upstream enterprises has been continuously consumed, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. New PDH device maintenance plans have emerged, and some existing PDH devices continue to be shut down. The operating rate of PDH is expected to further decline, and the refinery cracking device has reduced its load, resulting in a tightening of propylene supply [2] - **Demand situation**: The demand side is mainly for low - price rigid replenishment, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state. Some downstream enterprises have reduced their loads or shut down due to high costs, and it is necessary to pay attention to the transmission of negative feedback on the demand side [2] - **Price outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for the propylene price before the Middle - East situation shows an obvious easing signal [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side strategy**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period strategy**: None - **Inter - variety strategy**: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, geopolitical conflicts lead to increased volatility in the market. Overseas ethylene - based PVC supply is tightened, while domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply issues. The demand side is gradually recovering, but the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts is large. The cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat alleviated [3]. - For caustic soda, international geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected passive reduction in overseas chlor - alkali plant loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has weakened, while the 32% caustic soda price has followed the upward trend. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement, with alumina production showing a slight improvement [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5353 yuan/ton (-198), the East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-42), and the South China basis is 27 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5200 yuan/ton (-240), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5380 yuan/ton (-190) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 3165 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 275 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -35 yuan/ton (-228), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -778 yuan/ton (-344), and the PVC export profit is 80.7 US dollars/ton (-58.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.9 tons (-2.7), the social PVC inventory is 60.0 tons (-1.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 84.66% (+0.27%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 68.66% (+2.81%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.67% (+1.06%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.9 tons (-0.6) [1]. Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts cause increased market volatility. Overseas ethylene - based PVC raw material supply is tightened, and domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply problems. The calcium carbide - based PVC has improved profits and increased some loads. The demand side is gradually recovering, but the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts is large. The cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat alleviated, but domestic trade transactions are average [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2340 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -37 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 737 yuan/ton (-1), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (-60) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1299 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 827.2 yuan/ton (-43.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 296.16 yuan/ton (-123.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1868.03 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 52.00 tons (+2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (-0.20), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.58% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 52.57% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.36% (+0.39%) [2]. Market Analysis - International geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected passive reduction in overseas chlor - alkali plant loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has weakened, while the 32% caustic soda price has followed the upward trend. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement, with alumina production showing a slight improvement. Domestic trade follow - up is limited, and caustic soda is accumulating in Shandong and Jiangsu. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased, while the cost support has weakened [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the polyethylene market was affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, sharp rise in crude oil prices, plant maintenance, and downstream demand recovery, leading to a significant price increase. In April, the polyethylene market may continue to rise due to supply reduction, cost support, and demand increase [5][6][41]. - In March 2026, the polypropylene market showed a roller - coaster - like sharp rise and fall, dominated by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. In April, it is expected to show a narrow upward movement first and then return to a rational price, with an overall market trend of oscillation, rising first and then falling [5][6][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - aspect 3.1.1 China - In February 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 9%, the same as the previous month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In February 2026, the year - on - year increase in the national consumer price was 1.3%, and the month - on - month increase was 1%. The year - on - year decrease in the national industrial producer price was 0.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4% [8]. - From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 96.12 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points compared to the whole of the previous year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points compared to the whole of the previous year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 81.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points [10]. - From January to February 2026, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 130.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. Among them, domestic loans were 25.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.9%; self - raised funds were 49.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 35.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.5%; and personal mortgage loans were 11.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.9% [13]. - Current domestic macro - economic data shows that liquidity remains loose, and the demand side has improved. The real estate data is inconsistent. The growth rate of funds in place for real estate development enterprises continues to decline significantly, while the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment has narrowed significantly [15]. 3.1.2 International - In February 2026, the US CPI remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.4%. The US - Iran conflict caused a sharp increase in oil prices, which has not yet been reflected in the data [16]. - In February 2026, the US manufacturing PMI decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 52.4%, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.4% [19]. - Currently, the decline in US inflation and high unemployment are favorable for interest rate cuts, but the sharp increase in oil prices due to the US - Iran conflict has led to an increase in inflation expectations, hindering the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Fed is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market expects an increased possibility of interest rate cuts this year [21]. - Geopolitical conflicts still significantly boost oil prices, providing obvious cost support for polyolefins [23]. 3.2 Fundamental - aspect 3.2.1 PE - In March 2026, polyethylene production increased by 298,000 tons to 2.9357 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.66%, a decrease of 6.94%. The increase in production was mainly due to an additional production day [24]. - In March 2026, the overall downstream industry's polyethylene operating rate was 34.95%, a 13.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The average monthly operating rate of the PE packaging film industry increased by 18.07% month - on - month, and the overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 11.9% month - on - month [27]. - At the end of March 2026, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene decreased. The inventory was 446,200 tons, a decrease of 58,300 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 184,100 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.2.2 PP - In March 2026, China's total polypropylene production was 3.212 million tons (the production from the 28th to the 31st was estimated data), a month - on - month increase of 3.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. There was no new production capacity put into operation during the month, and the supply side of polypropylene had no pressure from new production [32]. - In March 2026, the apparent consumption of polypropylene decreased month - on - month. The estimated domestic apparent consumption of polypropylene in March was 2.992 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.97%. The average downstream operating rate of polypropylene was 46.16%, a month - on - month increase of 7.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.02% [35]. - At the end of March 2026, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 493,700 tons, a 32.46% decrease from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 177,800 tons, a 28.79% decrease from the end of the previous month [38]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 PE - In April 2026, the domestic capacity utilization rate of polyethylene is expected to decrease by 7.37% month - on - month. Due to the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz, the import volume in April may decrease by 22.16% month - on - month, and the total supply is expected to decrease by 14.29% month - on - month. The demand side shows a positive trend, with the downstream operating rate expected to increase by 4.49%. Although the demand for agricultural films will decline by 2.99% as the peak season comes to an end, the operating rate of packaging films is expected to increase by 5%, and the export volume is also expected to increase by 8.64% month - on - month. The cost of polyethylene will still be strongly supported by the relatively high - level crude oil prices. Overall, the price of the polyethylene market may rise in April [41]. 3.3.2 PP - In April 2026, the polypropylene market is expected to show a narrow upward movement first and then return to a rational price. Geopolitical risks have slowed down but not completely subsided, and there are still concerns about energy supply. The oil - based production cost is expected to loosen at a high level, but the PDH - based production cost is strongly supported by the high price of imported propane. The downstream demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the high - priced raw materials make it difficult for downstream enterprises to transfer costs, which restricts the overall downstream operating process. In April, more enterprises will stop production for maintenance or reduce production loads, and the supply side of the market will show a more obvious reduction. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate, rising first and then falling [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not peaking yet. The increase in production last week was relatively slow, and the increase in apparent demand was greater than that in production, leading to inventory depletion. The demand for hot-rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, but the domestic demand outlook remains weak, and export orders are stable. Due to the environmental protection production cuts in steel mills in the first quarter, although demand is weak, inventory depletion is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant. The upward drive for steel prices is insufficient, and the elasticity for upward breakthroughs mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut by BHP has made raw materials stronger, providing support for steel prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures contracts all declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3230 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 contract price fell from 3168 yuan/ton to 3146 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton. The profits of hot-rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees, while the profit of rebar in North China improved from -18 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.4%. The production of five major steel products remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, a decline of 2.7%, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, a rise of 1.8% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, a decline of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, a decline of 1.7% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, a rise of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, a rise of 2.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, a rise of 8.3%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, a rise of 1.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undecided, and pig iron production is recovering. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased significantly this period, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on some Australian ports. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly month-on-month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel export orders are acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the future, the focus of iron ore trading will be on the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. In terms of inventory, the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased slightly month-on-month. Recently, the central value of arrivals has declined, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain stable. Looking ahead, affected by factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changing market sentiment, steel mill复产, and the undecided BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with the contract range referring to 780 - 830 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, including a 0.4% decline in the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines to 916.6 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis of some iron ore powders changed, with the 05 contract basis of Carajás fines increasing by 1.7 to 108.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Price and Price Index**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port decreased, such as a 0.9% decline in the price of PB fines to 777.0 yuan/wet ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged at 106.4 dollars/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45-port arrivals volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, a rise of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, a decline of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, a decline of 18.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3%. The 45-port daily average desilting volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production and crude steel production both dropped to 0 [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The 45-port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0 days, a rise of 9.5% [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, both the coke and coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In terms of coke, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increases on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and with the significant increase in chemical product prices offsetting coke losses, coke oven operation has started to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, pig iron production is increasing, steel prices are rebounding at a low level, and the demand for replenishment is improving but resistant to high-priced raw materials. In terms of inventory, coke plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing, with the short-term supply and demand of coke basically balanced. In terms of coking coal, the spot coking coal market has cooled down and prices have declined. The demand for replenishment has weakened after price increases, and downstream enterprises with low profits are resistant to high-priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and coal daily production is gradually increasing. In terms of imports, port inventories continue to accumulate, and customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight recent decline. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, pig iron production is increasing, and coke production is also increasing. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is showing a change of downstream enterprises actively replenishing inventory. Strategically, due to Trump's statement that the war will end soon, which has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products, and the continuous conflict affecting macro sentiment, the coking coal spot market has cooled down and prices have declined. The coke futures had fully anticipated the price increase in the early stage and are now expected to peak and decline. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The reference range for the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800, and the reference range for the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures contracts decreased, such as a 3.0% decline in the coke 05 contract price to 1702 yuan/ton. The 05 basis of coke was 52 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures contracts also decreased, with a 5.4% decline in the coking coal 05 contract price to 1149 yuan/ton. The 05 basis of coking coal was 47 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a rise of 0.8%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, a decline of 0.64%, and the clean coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, a decline of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a rise of 0.8% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, a rise of 4.2%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, a rise of 1.1% [5]. Group 4: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, both the silicon manganese and silicon iron main contracts declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of silicon manganese, the supply decreased continuously last week, and the operating rate has been declining for several weeks. The production pressure in the South is still relatively high, and the loss has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern region is at the break - even point, but the actual profit of manufacturers may be better than the calculation because of the lower - priced ore purchased earlier. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of silicon manganese production cuts. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In the future, attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may be marginally relaxed in the near future, and the port inventory has begun to increase due to the expected increase in arrivals and contraction in demand. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on comprehensive costs such as shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may remain at a high level. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts, there is a production cut expectation for silicon manganese, which may reduce the demand for manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the supply change of silicon manganese in April, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800. In terms of silicon iron, the production decreased slightly last week, and the operating rate in the production areas also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the profit recovery of manufacturers, but the losses in Qinghai and Gansu are still serious. On the demand side for steelmaking, pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In the future, attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. On the non - steel demand side, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period, and it is not easy to inquire about goods at low prices. The silicon iron export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards, and attention should be paid to the settlement electricity price change in the production areas in March. There is certain support on the cost side of silicon iron. Looking ahead, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in balance. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range, with the reference range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot**: The closing prices of the silicon manganese and silicon iron main contracts decreased, with the silicon manganese main contract closing price dropping from 6588 yuan/ton to 6444 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract closing price dropping from 5874 yuan/ton to 5630 yuan/ton. The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1%, and the production profit decreased by 770.6%. The production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly by 0.1%, and the production profit increased [6]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.2 tons, a decline of 2.2%. The manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 30.9 tons to 63.8 tons, a decline of 32.6% [6]. - **Demand**: The silicon iron demand decreased by 0.6%, and the silicon manganese demand decreased slightly. The pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3% [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.4 tons to 5.5 tons, a decline of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.2 tons to 37.3 tons, a decline of 3.1% [6].