免责声明 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2025/11/25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC主力收盘价 | -14.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1126.400 | | 1338 | -25.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -99.40↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 327.10 | | 115.50 | -94.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 185.87 | +115.10↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力 ...

近日，在2025年彭博创新经济论坛期间，彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）远程接受21世纪 经济报道专访时指出，美国关税政策的升级正在深刻改变全球贸易结构与经济增长路径。据其分析，特 朗普政府已将美国平均关税从约2%大幅提高至约15%，这一政策变动导致"美国在全球贸易体系中的角 色正在缩水"。 欧乐鹰表示，根据可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）测算，平均15%的关税水平预计将使未来几年对美出口 规模较无关税情形下降约20%。随着对美国出口壁垒上升，各国正积极寻求替代市场，全球贸易中"绕 过美国"的部分将逐步增长，而与美相关的贸易流则趋于收缩。 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 自美国总统特朗普今年1月入主白宫以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴频频挥舞关税"大棒"，给全球贸易格局 带来了巨大干扰。世界贸易组织（WTO）警告称，特朗普关税正在对国际贸易体系造成80年来"前所未 见"的破坏，预计2026年全球货物贸易增长仅为0.5%。 彭博经济研究预测，2026年全球经济增长率可能进一步放缓至2.9%，低于2025年的3.2%。欧乐鹰指 出，企业为规避关税而进行的超前进口行为已进入库存消化阶段，其滞后影响 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight stabilization today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 3836.77 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37% to 12585.08 points, amidst a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [1] - The military and media sectors led the market, while the dividend style saw a pullback, indicating a recent adjustment phase influenced by external economic pressures and high valuations [1] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector showed strength today, with the gaming ETF (516010) rising by 3.15%, recovering from last week's losses, indicating a "post-pullback offensive window" for investment [3] - In Q3 2025, the gaming industry's revenue reached 30.362 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.48%, with profits growing by 112% to 5.777 billion yuan, reflecting strong profitability and continued industry momentum [3] - AI's impact on cost reduction is significant, with management expense ratios decreasing from 10% in Q1 2023 to 7% in Q3 2025, and R&D expense ratios dropping from 12% to 11% in the same period, enhancing profit margins [3] Media and Internet Sector - In Q3 2025, public funds increased their holdings in the media and internet sector, with the market value proportion rising to 2.50%, and the gaming sub-sector's allocation increasing to 1.68%, indicating a positive outlook for valuation and liquidity recovery [4] - The gaming industry remains resilient due to high fundamental growth, ongoing AI cost reduction trends, and a favorable supply of game licenses, suggesting improved investment opportunities [4] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market rebounded significantly, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.97% to 25716.50 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.78% to 5545.56 points, indicating a systemic recovery in the internet sector [6] - Despite recent volatility due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and concerns over AI valuations, there is potential for marginal improvement in risk appetite following upcoming policy meetings [6][5] Gold and Innovation Drug Sectors - The gold ETF (518800) saw a slight increase of 0.31%, supported by fluctuating interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions, which have bolstered safe-haven demand [6] - The innovation drug sector reported a revenue of 48.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.41%, with a significant reduction in net profit losses, indicating a positive trend in the industry [8] - The establishment of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs is expected to create a potential funding pool of approximately 20 billion yuan, enhancing the financial landscape for the sector [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1162.7 -44.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1640.100 | | | | -22.30↓ | | 期货盘面 | -21.10↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 258.10 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 477.40 | | | | -35.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -282.43 | +38.00↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1384↑ | 40244 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,238.42 | 1357.67 | | | | -91.29↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -43.72↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1451.38 | | | | 0.31↑ | | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1726.000 108.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1187.7 | +24.60↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2605价差 | 538.30 +91.00↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | | | 322.10 | +95.00↑ | | EC合约基差 | -368.33 -268.13↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 38880 837↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1357.67 -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,238.42 | ...

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Core Points - The G20 Think Tank Summit concluded in Johannesburg, South Africa, focusing on the theme of "Consolidation and Continuation" to support the voices of global South countries [1][2] - The summit addressed challenges such as geopolitical conflicts, trade fragmentation, and rising protectionism, emphasizing the need for cooperation among G20 member states, particularly from the global South [2][4] - A communiqué was released, presenting diverse perspectives on five key topics: trade and investment, digital transformation, financing for sustainable development, achieving the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and accelerating climate action and equitable energy transition [2] Group 1 - The summit was held from November 13 to 14 at the Sandton Convention Center in Johannesburg [3] - South Africa is the fourth consecutive global South country to hold the G20 presidency, following Indonesia (2022), India (2023), and Brazil (2024) [4] - The summit aimed to review significant public policy recommendations proposed by the G20 think tank working group over the past year [4]

Election Results - The Democratic Party achieved significant victories in local elections, including New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, which are traditionally Democratic strongholds[4] - The election results may not indicate a nationwide trend due to the polarized political climate in the U.S., with Trump's policies potentially increasing Democratic voter turnout[12] Supreme Court Proceedings - The U.S. Supreme Court began hearings on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policies, with conservative justices expressing skepticism about the president's authority to impose large-scale tariffs[13] - The court's decision could take weeks to months, providing the Trump administration time to refine its tariff policies[14] Economic Implications - The ongoing government shutdown, which has reached a historic duration, is contributing to market instability and a lack of official economic data, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices[12] - Economic issues are expected to become central in the upcoming midterm elections, aligning with the administration's need to stabilize the economy before the elections[11] Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in the Middle East, are expected to persist, with potential impacts on U.S. foreign policy and trade[16][17] - The U.S. is focusing on strategic industries in its tariff policies, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[15] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, attributed to the government shutdown and lack of market guidance[5] - The Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index showed positive performance, with increases of 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, indicating regional market resilience[5]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced fluctuations this week, initially rising before declining due to various factors including geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][8] - WTI crude oil futures for December increased by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures for January rose by 0.50% to $63.70 per barrel, despite a weekly decline of 1.87% and 1.65% respectively [7] - The market is currently facing concerns over oversupply, exacerbated by a significant increase in EIA inventory and a prolonged U.S. government shutdown impacting demand [8][10] Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impacting Oil Supply - Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, targeting energy and transportation infrastructure, which has implications for oil supply stability in the region [1] - This attack marks the ninth major assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since October, leading to emergency power outages and damage to facilities responsible for gas and heating supply [1] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving Russia, could significantly influence oil prices if they lead to supply disruptions [10] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Trends - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly to 421.2 million barrels, reflecting a 1.25% increase, indicating weak demand [8] - Seasonal reductions in refinery processing rates are contributing to lower oil consumption, with the current processing rate at 15.256 million barrels per day, remaining in a low range for the year [8] - In Singapore, fuel oil inventories surged by 1.754 million barrels, a 7.6% increase, driven by a significant rise in import volumes, suggesting a growing supply glut [9]