Group 1: Market Performance - The prices of metal commodities have risen significantly, with COMEX gold and silver increasing by 4.07% and 12.36% respectively, while LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin saw increases of 4.24%, 4.00%, 0.85%, 2.14%, 5.25%, and 12.75% respectively [1] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF, which tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, has shown a remarkable increase of 120% over the past year, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ping An Securities, silver is expected to maintain a continuous shortage globally due to its rigid supply characteristics, even amidst short-term demand fluctuations. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for silver are anticipated to remain favorable, driven by the AI industry and overseas re-industrialization [1][8] - Galaxy Securities suggests that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may lead major powers to strengthen their control and reserves of critical strategic metal resources, potentially reshaping global metal supply chains and catalyzing demand and value reassessment for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1][8] Group 3: Historical Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a higher elasticity compared to similar indices, with a cumulative increase of 172.62% over the past decade and an annualized growth rate of 10.87% [3][5] - The historical performance of the non-ferrous metal mining theme index indicates fluctuations, with notable annual performances of 39.73% in 2021, -20.60% in 2022, and -11.19% in 2023 [10]

作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 1月12日，全球贵金属市场迎来 "沸腾时刻"。 COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，首次站上每盎司4600美元整数关口，盘中最高触及4612美元/盎 司；COMEX白银同步强势跟涨，最高触及84.69美元/盎司，盘中涨幅一度超过6%。 国内市场跟涨，截至12日收盘，沪金期货主力合约盘中最高涨至1031元/克，沪银期货主力合约单 日涨幅高达14%，收报20945元/千克，7个远月合约均收于涨停。 "周一（1月12日）金银价格再创新高，将维持对贵金属的看涨预期，"南华期货贵金属新能源研究 组负责人夏莹莹对记者称，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔被调查一事具有突发性，但它对贵金属市场的影响 不是短期的，而是给上涨行情添加速度。长期看，美联储独立性受损属于不可逆的制度性损伤，叠加 地缘冲突、全球去美元化、各国央行持续购金等核心叙事形成共振，共同强化贵金属的上涨逻辑。 但高位波动风险不容忽视，近期全球期货交易所干预措施频出，贵金属品种交易保证金被多次提高。 1月12日盘后，上海黄金交易所发布通知称，近期受多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确 定性持续上升。并提示各会员单位密切关注市场行情变化，投资者做好 ...

1月12日，全球贵金属市场迎来 "沸腾时刻"。 COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，首次站上每盎司4600美元整数关口，盘中最高触及4612美元/盎 司；COMEX白银同步强势跟涨，最高触及84.69美元/盎司，盘中涨幅一度超过6%。 国内市场跟涨，截至12日收盘，沪金期货主力合约盘中最高涨至1031元/克，沪银期货主力合约单 日涨幅高达14%，收报20945元/千克，7个远月合约均收于涨停。 2026.01. 12 本文字数：2344，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 "周一（1月12日）金银价格再创新高，将维持对贵金属的看涨预期，"南华期货贵金属新能源研究 组负责人夏莹莹对记者称，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔被调查一事具有突发性，但它对贵金属市场的影响 不是短期的，而是给上涨行情添加速度。长期看，美联储独立性受损属于不可逆的制度性损伤，叠加 地缘冲突、全球去美元化、各国央行持续购金等核心叙事形成共振，共同强化贵金属的上涨逻辑。 但高位波动风险不容忽视，近期全球期货交易所干预措施频出，贵金属品种交易保证金被多次提高。 1月12日盘后，上海黄金交易所发布通知称，近期受多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in copper prices driven by various macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2 - On January 12, copper futures in Shanghai opened strongly, with the main contract reaching a closing price of 100,280 yuan/ton, up 3.51% from the previous day [1] - The London copper price also saw an increase, with the latest quote at 13,192.5 USD/ton, rising by 227 USD/ton, or 1.75% [1] - Domestic spot copper prices surged, with the Yangtze River 1 copper price reported at 103,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the U.S. Department of Justice's threat to prosecute Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which is perceived as an attempt by the Trump administration to interfere with interest rate decisions [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign buyers, contributing to the rise in commodity prices [1] Group 4 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which may lead to a short-term boost in the photovoltaic sector and subsequently support copper prices [2] - Despite the increase in copper prices, the domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain under pressure, and the market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in demand [2] - Recent data shows a significant increase in copper inventory, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks rising by 24.22% to 180,543 tons, the highest in nearly nine months [2] Group 5 - The technical outlook suggests that copper prices are likely to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 12 日 合成橡胶: 高位震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 12,015 101,221 | 12,195 167,637 | -180 -66416 | | | （02合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 26,339 | 30,228 | -3889 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 609,966 | 1,028,916 | -418950 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -15 | -95 | 80 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -35 | -35 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,600 | 11,650 | -50 | | | | ...

铅周报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 基本面指引有限 铅价跟随板块运行 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价冲高回落。宏观面看，国内外保持货 币宽松预期，且地缘冲突提升资源端溢价，贵金属有色 受振普涨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 基本面，北方矿山延续季节性检修，国内铅矿原料供应 偏紧态势不改，加工费维持低位态势，波动较小。废旧 电瓶方面，后半周铅价回落后，回收商囤货意愿降低， 市场货源增加后价格小幅调整，但幅度有限。1 月电解 铅炼厂减复产并存，减产集中在江西及湖南，增量集中 在安徽及云南地区，预计产量环比小幅增加。再生铅方 面，原 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company's business has not been affected by geopolitical conflicts as of the current date [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments due to recent market dynamics and economic indicators [2] - On January 9, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 1000.85 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 5.63 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 1006.48 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while the previous value was revised up by 1,000 to 200,000, indicating a stable labor market [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the adjustment in commodity index weights has triggered short-term selling, while rising inflation expectations and favorable employment data support gold prices [2] - International gold prices increased by 0.5% to 4477.39 USD per ounce, with a session low of 4407.29 USD per ounce, and global gold ETF inflows for 2025 are expected to reach a historical high [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with recommendations to hold long positions above 4300 USD, while monitoring the gold-silver ratio and U.S. non-farm payroll data [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】根据欧佩克网站列出伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋 长国、哈萨克斯坦和阿曼提交的更新后的补偿计划，对去年1-4 月份超产部分进行减产补偿的计划，上述四国到2026年6月份每 日减产82.9万桶，其中伊拉克每日减产10万桶，哈萨克斯坦每 日减产66.9万桶阿联酋每日减产5.5万桶，阿曼每日减产5000 桶；当地时间8日晚，伊朗首都德黑兰互联网服务出现中断；特 朗普当天接受一家电台采访时说，如果伊朗当局对相关人员死 亡事件负有直接责任，"他们将付出惨痛的代价"。评：投资 者在关注委内瑞拉的局势发展的同时，也对俄罗斯、伊拉克和 伊朗的石油供应状况感到担忧，隔夜油价大幅反弹。整体上， 地缘冲突频，短线过渡为佳。 【短评-白银】美国上周初请失业金人数升至20.8万人，略 低于市场预期，仍处于历史低位区间，前值上修1000人至20万 人。美国挑战者报告显示，去年12月裁员人数为35,553人，创 17个月新低。评：初请失业金人数显示，经济依然具 ...