Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5] - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend, the futures market is weakly volatile with large recent fluctuations, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Set stop - losses [2] - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6 [3] - The eurozone's SENTIX investor confidence index in July reached 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, hitting the highest level since April 2022 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] - The initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Situation - As of August 20, the Israeli side has not responded to the new cease - fire agreement proposed by Hamas, and the Israeli military has approved an offensive plan for Gaza City [7] - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 20, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1355.0, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 27,500 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, a decrease of 1072 lots from the previous day [5] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Short - term**: On August 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.13% to 775.06 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.25% to 9187 yuan/kilogram. The potential for a three - way meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine may ease geopolitical conflicts, and high market risk preference along with a cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectations due to tariff policies are suppressing precious metal prices. However, factors like the decline in US consumer confidence in August and ongoing tariff impacts will support gold prices. Short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Silver is expected to be volatile in the short - term. [4] - **Long - term**: With the US debt exceeding $7 trillion and a certain probability of Fed rate cuts this year, gold has long - term support. In the long run, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, great - power competition, and the trend of de - dollarization with continued central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices. For silver, in the medium - term, it is more likely to follow fundamental logic, and caution is needed regarding its upside potential. [4] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 19, compared to August 18, London gold spot dropped 0.4% to $3336.05/ounce, London silver spot fell 0.5% to $37.90/ounce, COMEX gold decreased 0.4% to $3380.20/ounce, and COMEX silver declined 0.6% to $37.93/ounce. In the domestic market, AU2510 dropped 0.3% to 775.06 yuan/gram, and AG2510 fell 0.8% to 9187 yuan/kilogram. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: From August 18 to August 19, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased 5.8% to - 3.47 yuan/gram, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased 19.4% to - 25 yuan/kilogram. [3] Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 18, compared to August 15, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 965.36 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV increased 1.89% to 15356.60489 tons. [3] - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: For COMEX gold, from August 15 to August 18, non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40% to 288115 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased 6.32% to 58630 contracts, and net long positions decreased 3.19% to 229485 contracts. For COMEX silver, non - commercial long positions decreased 6.99% to 66252 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased 6.84% to 21984 contracts, and net long positions decreased 12.61% to 44268 contracts. [3] Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On August 19, compared to August 18, SHFE gold inventories decreased 0.03% to 36333 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventories increased 0.97% to 1149446 kilograms. [3] - **COMEX Inventories**: From August 15 to August 18, COMEX gold inventories increased 0.03% to 38646556 ounce, and COMEX silver inventories remained unchanged at 507551254 ounce. [3] Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - **Interest Rates**: From August 18 to August 19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased 0.05%. [4] - **Exchange Rates and Stock Markets**: The dollar index increased 0.31%, the VIX decreased 0.66%, the S&P 500 decreased 0.01%, the dollar/yuan central parity rate increased 0.53%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased 0.89%. [4] Key News - Trump plans a three - way meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine after meeting with Zelensky, and Zelensky said that Ukraine no longer insists on a cease - fire as a prerequisite for negotiation, and territorial issues can only be discussed with Putin. [4] Operation Strategy - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the speech of the Fed Chairman at the global central bank annual meeting this week. In the long - term, it is recommended to cautiously go long at low prices. For silver, in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, caution is needed regarding its upside potential. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction. The arbitrage strategy advises waiting and seeing or light - position attempts due to large fluctuations [5][6] - The cease - fire news has limited impact on the market, and the market is volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5] Summary According to Directory Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] - The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] Market Conditions - On August 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] Geopolitical Situation - On August 18, Hamas announced its agreement to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar, but Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed uninterested, and Israel was advancing its so - called "takeover" of Gaza City [7] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [6] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The ceasefire news has limited impact on the market, with recent large fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions further, and stop - loss orders should be set [2] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5] Summary by Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 19, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] - Hamas released a ceasefire expectation, but Israel denied the information. Coupled with some liner companies continuously lowering freight rates, the market fluctuated widely [5] Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers can try to lightly go long on the 2510 contract around 1300 and the 2512 contract around 1750. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss orders [6] Arbitrage Strategy - Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or try with light positions [6] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -地缘冲突 persists, with Trump's meetings with leaders of Ukraine and major European countries yielding no clear results. South American oil supply increases and the production of sanctioned countries remains strong, pressuring oil prices to decline gradually. [2] - Two 800,000 - ton PX plants in South China will restart soon, restoring PX supply. PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. [2] - Recently, there are more PTA plant overhauls, and the low processing fee continues to be favorable. The PTA market has a small increase, and the spot offer basis strengthens. However, with new plant commissioning expected on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is trading between 5880 - 5970 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side quotes mostly increase, and downstream demand is for rigid needs, with a general trading atmosphere. [2] - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.35/barrel, down 1.69% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.79/barrel, down 1.22%; naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $574.50/ton, up 0.66%; isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $676.00/ton, down 0.66% [1] - **PTA Price**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4734 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.25%; settlement price was 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4666 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. [1] - **PX Price**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6774 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, up 0.21%; settlement price was 6792 yuan/ton, up 1.34%. Domestic p - xylene spot price on August 18 was 6609 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. [1] - **PR Price**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5906 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.37%; settlement price was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China remained unchanged at 5920 yuan/ton and 5940 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Price**: CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester filament and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged on August 19, 2025, while the price indices of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips increased slightly, up 0.31% and 0.34% respectively. [2] 3.2 Spread Information - On August 19, 2025, the PXN spread was $260.50/ton, down 0.79%; the PX - MX spread was $159.00/ton, up 4.04%. [1] - The PTA near - far month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PX basis was - 165 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PR basis in East China and South China markets increased by 22 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Production and Sales Information - On August 19, 2025, the PX operating rate was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 75.09%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate remained at 87.30%. [1] - The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased by 5.30%, 12.63%, and 11.05% respectively on August 19, 2025. [1] 3.4 Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 7, expected to last for 2 months; Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 8, expected to last for 1 month; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA plant is planned for technical renovation from August 15 for 3 months. [2] 3.5 Transaction Strategy - After the price correction, it maintains a volatile trend. The TA2601 contract closed at 4734 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 549,300 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6774 yuan/ton (up 1.07%), with a daily trading volume of 222,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 42,600 lots. [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed performance of U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical closing high despite pressures from rising bond yields and disappointing earnings from Home Depot [1] - Home Depot reported Q2 revenue and earnings per share for fiscal year 2025 below expectations but maintained its full-year guidance, resulting in a stock price increase of over 3% [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.59% and 1.46%, respectively, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] Group 2 - European stock indices collectively rose, driven by optimistic investor sentiment regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with significant gains in retail, non-essential consumer goods, beverages, and automotive sectors [2] - The FTSE 100 index in the UK reached a historical closing high, reflecting strong performance in the European market [2] Group 3 - International oil prices declined as investors anticipated a de-escalation of the Eastern European geopolitical conflict, leading to expectations of increased supply from Russia [3] - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery closed at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, while Brent crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [3] Group 4 - International gold prices fell to a two-week low as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with expectations of a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [4] - The price of December gold futures closed at $3358.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.57% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that ethylene glycol (MEG) will maintain a volatile trend, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, and recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The reasons include the weak atmosphere in the commodity market, potential fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, stable overall domestic device operation with occasional short - stops, normal downstream polyester operation, and low but increasing port inventories [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, MEG fluctuated narrowly. The main reason was the weak atmosphere in the commodity market. In the second half of the week, the MEG futures callbacked, and there was good buying at low levels. Two large - scale plants are restarting, and port inventories are increasing but still at a low level. Downstream polyester maintains normal operation, while terminal weaving orders are mediocre [5]. - Next week, cost - side geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. On the supply side, short - stops of domestic plants may occur occasionally, and overall operation is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, there are few planned plant changes, and the determining factor for the turning point of filament load will shift from equity inventory to processing fees. Port inventories are expected to remain low despite the increase [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: This week, the trading volume was 476,600 lots, and the open interest was 148,500 lots (a decrease of 56,800 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on August 18 was 4346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to August 11. The settlement price on August 18 was 4353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton or 1.16% compared to August 11 [10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4518 yuan/ton on August 12, and the low - end was 4442 yuan/ton on August 14. From August 10 - 16, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. The foreign - market price was 524.7 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.9 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 88.40 yuan/ton, higher than last week's 78.00 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 100 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. MEG Plant, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Plant Operation**: From August 12 - 19, the comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 62.98%, slightly higher than 62.81% from August 5 - 11. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 64.03%, 61.43%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, there were short - stops and restarts at some plants, such as the short - stop of the Shenghong plant and the restart of the Guanghui plant [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Due to the continuous strengthening of thermal coal prices and the weakening of MEG spot prices, the profit of coal - based MEG production has been further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production are - 1513.88 yuan/ton, 485.39 yuan/ton, and - 112.90 US dollars/ton respectively [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, MEG port inventory was 495,400 tons, an increase of 78,200 tons or 11.77% compared to the previous period. The supply and demand of MEG are expected to remain basically balanced from August to September, and there is room for downward adjustment of imports [37][38]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The market's expectation of a US - Russia peace negotiation has put downward pressure on oil prices. The decline in crude oil and PTA prices has a negative impact on the market sentiment of polyester products [44][49]. - **Downstream Market**: The average weekly load of polyester plants was 86.97%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.81%. The prices of some polyester products have declined slightly. The inventory of polyester staple fiber has decreased, and the supply is still sufficient, while the demand is weak. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market inventory is generally abundant [48][52]. - **Weaving Market**: The shipment of grey fabrics is slow, and the number of inquiries has decreased. The operating rates of some weaving areas have increased slightly. The weekly average polyester sales rate from August 11 - 15 was estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament has decreased slightly [53][55][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - For short - term, risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300; for arbitrage, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position; for long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 51, all higher than expected. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Market Conditions - Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [3] - On August 15, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.6, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 31,100 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3] - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term: Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profit when the contracts rise, wait for a pullback to stabilize, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical News - On the evening of the 16th local time, regarding the possible restart of the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Israel's condition for reaching an agreement is the one - time release of all Israeli detainees and the agreement must meet Israel's conditions for ending the war [5] - On the 13th local time, the Hamas delegation held talks with the Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo on promoting the cease - fire in Gaza. Hamas hopes to resume cease - fire negotiations as soon as possible [5] Shipping Industry Forecast - Global container shipping volume is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 after a 6% increase in 2024. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 1.8 million TEUs in 2025 and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. There are currently 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [4]. Summary by Related Information Shipping Indexes - On August 15, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5 [2]. - In the US in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - On August 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.6, with a gain of 1.10%, a trading volume of 31,100 lots, and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely [3]. Shipping Market Forecast - German container shipping company Hapag - Lloyd expects global container shipping volume to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The expected global ship delivery volume is 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. The current global ship orders are 9.3 million TEUs, accounting for 29% of the global fleet [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the potential deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the suspension of the detour situation, along with Maersk's profit increase, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the market is volatile, and risk control is necessary [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Market Conditions - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% [1]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on August 8: the composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11%; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on August 8: the published price was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points; the European line price was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on August 8: the composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6%; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [1]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to try long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially stop losses. For the EC2512 contract, a light - short position was recommended and profit - taking is advised [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Market Trading Data - On August 8, the main contract 2510 closed at 1436.0, down 1.34%, with a trading volume of 5.64 million lots and an open interest of 5.66 million lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [3]. Geopolitical Events - Trump's administration has imposed additional tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market has a small price increase to test the market [3]. - The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the next - stage military operation will target two areas still under Hamas control, and about 70% - 75% of Gaza has been controlled by the Israeli army [3][4]. - The Israeli government's security cabinet passed the "five principles to end the war", including disarming Hamas and other contents [4].