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房地产行业报告(2025.07.01-2025.07.06):“好房子”支撑新房市场,产品代差逐渐显现
China Post Securities· 2025-07-08 13:09
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The recent policy environment remains stable, with "good houses" supporting the new housing market. The introduction of construction standards for "good houses" is accelerating the upgrade of residential quality by developers. New projects that comply with these standards are selling well, benefiting from high usable area ratios, technological systems, and green certifications. As product differentiation becomes more apparent, the price gap between second-hand and new houses is expected to widen, with second-hand house prices under downward pressure while compliant new houses will continue to support the market [1][2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 202.1 million square meters, with a cumulative new housing transaction area of 4,798.22 million square meters this year, down 2% year-on-year. The average transaction area over the past four weeks in these cities was 224.03 million square meters, down 10.3% year-on-year but up 7.2% month-on-month [2][11] - The average transaction area for first-tier cities over the past four weeks was 62.48 million square meters, down 10.6% year-on-year but up 7.3% month-on-month. For second-tier cities, it was 116.32 million square meters, down 4.6% year-on-year and up 8.1% month-on-month. Third-tier cities saw an average of 45.23 million square meters, down 21.8% year-on-year but up 5% month-on-month [11] - The available residential area in 14 cities last week was 7,934.97 million square meters, down 10.29% year-on-year and down 0.52% month-on-month. The de-stocking cycle for these cities is 16.93 months, with first-tier cities at 11.95 months [16] 2. Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan first-level real estate index rose by 0.29%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.25 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng property services and management index fell by 0.9%, while the Hang Seng composite index decreased by 0.94%, with the property services and management index outperforming the composite index by 0.04 percentage points [4][31]