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三只松鼠(300783):毛利率改善,费率上行拖累盈利表现
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-05 15:19
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the gross profit margin has improved, but rising costs are dragging down profitability [2][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 7.759 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million yuan, down 52.91% year-on-year [4][6]. - The report anticipates that the company's revenue growth will be supported by offline distribution channels, despite a slowdown in online revenue due to increased traffic costs [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.91%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 [4][6]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 increased by 1.25 percentage points to 25.71%, despite rising nut costs, attributed to product upgrades and improved supply chain capabilities [4][6]. - The report notes that the sales expense ratio increased by 2.25 percentage points due to higher platform and promotional costs, while the management expense ratio rose by 0.65 percentage points due to increased depreciation and amortization [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its transformation towards differentiated and high-quality products, enhancing profitability [4][6]. - The report projects revenues of 11.470 billion yuan, 12.618 billion yuan, and 14.012 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 11% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 187 million yuan, 252 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for the same years, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [6][7].