产品高端化转型升级
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珠江啤酒(002461):需求端承压致营收负增长,利润端保持韧性
Wanlian Securities· 2025-10-27 11:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhujiang Beer is maintained as "Add" [5][10]. Core Insights - The company experienced its first negative revenue growth due to significant pressure on the demand side, while maintaining resilience in profit growth [3]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.875 billion yuan (YoY -1.34%) and a net profit of 332 million yuan (YoY +8.16%) [2][3]. - The gross margin and net margin both increased year-on-year, indicating effective cost control and a shift towards high-end products [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a cumulative revenue of 5.073 billion yuan (YoY +3.81%) and a net profit of 944 million yuan (YoY +17.05%) [2][3]. - The revenue growth rate has significantly slowed down compared to the previous year, with Q3 2025 showing a decline from +6.89% to -1.34% [3]. Margin and Expense Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 50.93%, up by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 17.83%, up by 1.36 percentage points [4]. - The overall expense ratio saw a slight increase, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing minor year-on-year changes [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue its high-end product strategy, which may help in achieving profit growth despite the revenue decline [4]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 951 million, 1.021 billion, and 1.110 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.46, and 0.50 yuan per share [4][11].