Core Insights - The global PX production capacity is rapidly shifting towards Asia, particularly China, which now accounts for over 90% of the new capacity added globally, solidifying its position as the world's PX production center [2][3] - By 2024, East Asia's PX capacity will represent 69.3% of the global total, with Southeast Asia contributing an additional 9.2%, leading to nearly 80% of global capacity being concentrated in Asia [2] - China's PX capacity reached 43.73 million tons by the end of 2023, with projections indicating it could approach 47 million tons by 2026, representing about 55% of global capacity [2] Industry Dynamics - The PX market is undergoing a profound transformation due to the rapid expansion of production capacity and relatively weak demand, particularly in the downstream PTA sector, which is experiencing oversupply [4][6] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a 10-year low, leading to reduced demand for PX and a price correction in the PX market [4][6] - The PX price (CFR China) averaged $831.1 per ton from early 2025 to November 25, reflecting a decline of 15.06% year-on-year compared to 2024 and a 20.25% drop compared to 2023 [6] Future Outlook - The global PX market is expected to seek rebalancing as PTA capacity expansion slows, leading to a shift in profits towards upstream raw materials like PX [7] - The competitive landscape in the polyester supply chain will intensify, with companies needing to enhance their "refining and chemical integration" models to maintain an edge [10] - China's role as a net exporter of PX is becoming more pronounced, with a structural shift in trade patterns as domestic production increases [8][10] Trade Patterns - Historically, PX trade in Asia involved exports from traditional producers like South Korea and Japan to China, but this trend is changing as China moves towards becoming a net exporter [8] - In the first ten months of 2025, China's PX imports reached 7.8569 million tons, a 3.85% increase from 2024, indicating a shift from reliance on imports to meeting marginal demand from new PTA capacity [8][10]